We’ve already had one referendum on a vague idea, then we spent 5 years trying to work out what it actually meant. We couldn’t so we rushed to a poor outcome.

There are even more complications in breaking the country up.

bsky.app/profile/jonc...

The SNP have lots of supporters, some left wing, lots of them very right wing. This is typical of nationalist parties

So I think I will block you as a right wing troll

Right wing troll. Find someone else to pester

Independence? This is a blog about irish reunification? Are you just another Scots nationalist right wing troll? If so find someone else to pester

Thanks, but that is more angry partisanship. You're not engaging with arguments.

I'm not a partisan, I don't have skin in the game. I am an ex civil servant who has written briefings for ministers. I approached this with an open mind, and wrote it in the same way. Those who want Irish unity need to have a much better answer to the question than the ones I on this thread.

Lovely article, enjoyed it a lot. Sorry to share something less pleasant with you, but this was in response to something on social media

Not at all, but the position is similar. The UK had to Brexit, so had to accept the least bad offer the EU made (actually we accepted a worse one than that!).

I am presenting that as the most likely of a range of potential outcomes from the negotiation. I was clear to make than an assumption.

It remains, in my view, by far the most likely outcome, in particular because if the ROI Government doesn't promise this explicitly the vote won't go for yes.

I am sorry, I realise that you really want a united Ireland, but all of these things are for negotiation. Which means that there is risk involved. And you consistently under play the risks of the negotiation, and over play the strength of Ireland hand. Just like Brexit

All up for negotiation. The problem is that relatively small technical adjustments produce very large changes in the cost of unity, making it a very risk process. Add to that GB subsidises NI by £15bn a year. If ROI doesn't promise up front to at least match that the vote is likely to fail

Every time you reply it should more and more like Brexit

I think that you are very optimistic about the politics. It was politically impossible for HMG not to Brexit, which meant that all it could do was take the least bad deal (they actually demanded something worse than that but that's another story). Irish Government in the same position, EU or not

There are lots of assets that Ireland gets, people, buildings, resources. All of which come with liabilities

Ultimately it is a negotiation, but just as the UK discovered during Brexit if you have to accept a deal the deal you have to accept isn't very good