Julian Hinz
@julianhi.nz
Economist focused on international economics—trade policy, sanctions, migration & applied econometrics. Bielefeld University and Kiel Institute.
We really don't know much at this point. We'll update these numbers once we do. In the meantime, find other scenario simulations at Kiel Trade & Tariffs Monitor: kiel.institute/tariffs 4/4
Kiel Trade and Tariffs Monitor - Analyses, Simulations and Commentaries
Analyses, simulations and commentaries on all issues related to the impact of tariffs and trade wars.
kiel.institute
May 23, 2025 at 1:00 PM
We really don't know much at this point. We'll update these numbers once we do. In the meantime, find other scenario simulations at Kiel Trade & Tariffs Monitor: kiel.institute/tariffs 4/4
Take the numbers with a huge grain of salt, but the measures obviously also significantly increase deflationary pressure in Eurozone and inflationary pressure in US: Price index dives across Europe, with 🇩🇪 –2.70%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –2.43%, versus global uptick of +0.69%. 3/n
May 23, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Take the numbers with a huge grain of salt, but the measures obviously also significantly increase deflationary pressure in Eurozone and inflationary pressure in US: Price index dives across Europe, with 🇩🇪 –2.70%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –2.43%, versus global uptick of +0.69%. 3/n
Should this be enacted and stay in place for about a year, we expect exports to the US collapse: 🇩🇪 Germany –23.85%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –20.64%, global trade barely moves at –0.30%. 2/n
May 23, 2025 at 1:00 PM
Should this be enacted and stay in place for about a year, we expect exports to the US collapse: 🇩🇪 Germany –23.85%, 🇪🇺 EU27 –20.64%, global trade barely moves at –0.30%. 2/n