REKTelligence
@rektelligence.bsky.social
Award-winning quant trader David Bush blends data-driven crypto, macro & equity analysis from his base in the Caribbean, helping traders and investors see what really moves markets.
#Bitcoin has once again stalled - but still holds - against its 365-day VWAP, the subtle declining red line on the #$BTC daily chart here. Past tests have seen quick retreats, but not this time, at least so far. I’ll be looking for more chop, followed by further upside in time.
September 3, 2026 at 3:43 PM
Hey traders — the Altcoin Index excludes #$BTC, #$ETH & #stablecoins, and just flipped bullish for the first time since the infamous Oct 10th selloff.
I explore its application to a systematic altcoin strategy as a risk on/risk off switch in my latest report — just out this today.
Powerful.
I explore its application to a systematic altcoin strategy as a risk on/risk off switch in my latest report — just out this today.
Powerful.
August 27, 2026 at 4:34 PM
Hey traders — the Altcoin Index excludes #$BTC, #$ETH & #stablecoins, and just flipped bullish for the first time since the infamous Oct 10th selloff.
I explore its application to a systematic altcoin strategy as a risk on/risk off switch in my latest report — just out this today.
Powerful.
I explore its application to a systematic altcoin strategy as a risk on/risk off switch in my latest report — just out this today.
Powerful.
In the modern era of $Bitcoin — 2017 to now — weekly Bitcoin candles up >= +20% have occurred 8 times.
Here’s what a 3-month hold has generated historically:
Hit Rate: 87.5% (7/8)
Avg Trade: +56.28%
Profit Factor: 38.0
Here’s what a 3-month hold has generated historically:
Hit Rate: 87.5% (7/8)
Avg Trade: +56.28%
Profit Factor: 38.0
August 21, 2026 at 4:53 PM
In the modern era of $Bitcoin — 2017 to now — weekly Bitcoin candles up >= +20% have occurred 8 times.
Here’s what a 3-month hold has generated historically:
Hit Rate: 87.5% (7/8)
Avg Trade: +56.28%
Profit Factor: 38.0
Here’s what a 3-month hold has generated historically:
Hit Rate: 87.5% (7/8)
Avg Trade: +56.28%
Profit Factor: 38.0
The #$QQQ had declined by at least 10% in 30 days but the % of SP500 Stocks > their 20MA remained > 60%.
Over the past ~20 years, buying the QQQ with these conditions has a negative avg trade using a 1-month hold.
The broader market holds up even as the air comes out of the highly crowded AI trade.
Over the past ~20 years, buying the QQQ with these conditions has a negative avg trade using a 1-month hold.
The broader market holds up even as the air comes out of the highly crowded AI trade.
July 30, 2026 at 6:41 PM
The #$QQQ had declined by at least 10% in 30 days but the % of SP500 Stocks > their 20MA remained > 60%.
Over the past ~20 years, buying the QQQ with these conditions has a negative avg trade using a 1-month hold.
The broader market holds up even as the air comes out of the highly crowded AI trade.
Over the past ~20 years, buying the QQQ with these conditions has a negative avg trade using a 1-month hold.
The broader market holds up even as the air comes out of the highly crowded AI trade.
I had to save this headline from my iPhone lock screen last night.
#$SKHY profit surges 557%…but misses estimates
Truly a sign of the times.
#$SKHY profit surges 557%…but misses estimates
Truly a sign of the times.
July 29, 2026 at 6:41 PM
I had to save this headline from my iPhone lock screen last night.
#$SKHY profit surges 557%…but misses estimates
Truly a sign of the times.
#$SKHY profit surges 557%…but misses estimates
Truly a sign of the times.
Semi ETF #$SMH is now down more than 16% in just 25 days.
Buying MOC with a 5-day hold, the stats since 2000:
Avg Trade: +2.54%
Hit Rate: 68.2%
Profit Factor: 2.61
Decent bull edge and statistically significant. Common setup during the DotCom bear — a potential concern.
Buying MOC with a 5-day hold, the stats since 2000:
Avg Trade: +2.54%
Hit Rate: 68.2%
Profit Factor: 2.61
Decent bull edge and statistically significant. Common setup during the DotCom bear — a potential concern.
July 28, 2026 at 7:00 PM
Semi ETF #$SMH is now down more than 16% in just 25 days.
Buying MOC with a 5-day hold, the stats since 2000:
Avg Trade: +2.54%
Hit Rate: 68.2%
Profit Factor: 2.61
Decent bull edge and statistically significant. Common setup during the DotCom bear — a potential concern.
Buying MOC with a 5-day hold, the stats since 2000:
Avg Trade: +2.54%
Hit Rate: 68.2%
Profit Factor: 2.61
Decent bull edge and statistically significant. Common setup during the DotCom bear — a potential concern.
#Bitcoin’s current adventure below its 200sma is now the 4th longest streak in its history. That is, consecutive days closing < 200sma.
Here are all streaks with at least 30 straight days below the 200sma.
The 3-year return from the last day below has always been positive. Check my latest Substack
Here are all streaks with at least 30 straight days below the 200sma.
The 3-year return from the last day below has always been positive. Check my latest Substack
July 27, 2026 at 7:25 PM
#Bitcoin’s current adventure below its 200sma is now the 4th longest streak in its history. That is, consecutive days closing < 200sma.
Here are all streaks with at least 30 straight days below the 200sma.
The 3-year return from the last day below has always been positive. Check my latest Substack
Here are all streaks with at least 30 straight days below the 200sma.
The 3-year return from the last day below has always been positive. Check my latest Substack
There are countless ways to capitalize on Bitcoin.
Diversifying Bitcoin edges within a portfolio engine, however, brings new alpha. Ditto for alts, of course. No bull market required.
I’ll be sharing details with subs in the near future, so look for more substantive posts in the coming weeks
Diversifying Bitcoin edges within a portfolio engine, however, brings new alpha. Ditto for alts, of course. No bull market required.
I’ll be sharing details with subs in the near future, so look for more substantive posts in the coming weeks
July 22, 2026 at 7:38 PM
There are countless ways to capitalize on Bitcoin.
Diversifying Bitcoin edges within a portfolio engine, however, brings new alpha. Ditto for alts, of course. No bull market required.
I’ll be sharing details with subs in the near future, so look for more substantive posts in the coming weeks
Diversifying Bitcoin edges within a portfolio engine, however, brings new alpha. Ditto for alts, of course. No bull market required.
I’ll be sharing details with subs in the near future, so look for more substantive posts in the coming weeks
#$SMH trading down for a 3rd straight session, but may close > open.
Historically, a statistically significant edge w/ 5-day hold:
Hit Rate: 61.47%
Avg Trade: +1.10%
Profit Factor: 2.055
Not mind-blowing, but 109 instances & may occur today.
Historically, a statistically significant edge w/ 5-day hold:
Hit Rate: 61.47%
Avg Trade: +1.10%
Profit Factor: 2.055
Not mind-blowing, but 109 instances & may occur today.
July 17, 2026 at 7:20 PM
#$SMH trading down for a 3rd straight session, but may close > open.
Historically, a statistically significant edge w/ 5-day hold:
Hit Rate: 61.47%
Avg Trade: +1.10%
Profit Factor: 2.055
Not mind-blowing, but 109 instances & may occur today.
Historically, a statistically significant edge w/ 5-day hold:
Hit Rate: 61.47%
Avg Trade: +1.10%
Profit Factor: 2.055
Not mind-blowing, but 109 instances & may occur today.
Equal Weight NASDAQ 100 (QQEW) is consolidating.
Why? Because next week everything lands in just 3 days:
Tue: June CPI + Warsh congressional testimony
Tue/Wed: JPM, BAC, GS, WFC, C, MS, BLK report
Wed: June PPI
Thu: TSM, NFLX, UNH report
Why? Because next week everything lands in just 3 days:
Tue: June CPI + Warsh congressional testimony
Tue/Wed: JPM, BAC, GS, WFC, C, MS, BLK report
Wed: June PPI
Thu: TSM, NFLX, UNH report
July 10, 2026 at 4:41 PM
Equal Weight NASDAQ 100 (QQEW) is consolidating.
Why? Because next week everything lands in just 3 days:
Tue: June CPI + Warsh congressional testimony
Tue/Wed: JPM, BAC, GS, WFC, C, MS, BLK report
Wed: June PPI
Thu: TSM, NFLX, UNH report
Why? Because next week everything lands in just 3 days:
Tue: June CPI + Warsh congressional testimony
Tue/Wed: JPM, BAC, GS, WFC, C, MS, BLK report
Wed: June PPI
Thu: TSM, NFLX, UNH report
Crypto bull markets are definitely easier to trade.
But with the right logic, even Altcoins in downtrends can deliver gains, like VET shown here using my Altcoin Index & Stretch Edge.
The chart looks rough. The equity curve doesn't. That gap is what I teach people to close.
But with the right logic, even Altcoins in downtrends can deliver gains, like VET shown here using my Altcoin Index & Stretch Edge.
The chart looks rough. The equity curve doesn't. That gap is what I teach people to close.
July 8, 2026 at 6:30 PM
Crypto bull markets are definitely easier to trade.
But with the right logic, even Altcoins in downtrends can deliver gains, like VET shown here using my Altcoin Index & Stretch Edge.
The chart looks rough. The equity curve doesn't. That gap is what I teach people to close.
But with the right logic, even Altcoins in downtrends can deliver gains, like VET shown here using my Altcoin Index & Stretch Edge.
The chart looks rough. The equity curve doesn't. That gap is what I teach people to close.
The Query: Buy Bitcoin the first time it closes below its 200wk SMA. Being research, allow overlapping trades. Exit in 2 years.
Historically, Avg Trade delivers +7.94x and Median Trade +4.16x.
Bitcoin is not quite in deep value territory but arguably trades at an attractive discount.
Historically, Avg Trade delivers +7.94x and Median Trade +4.16x.
Bitcoin is not quite in deep value territory but arguably trades at an attractive discount.
June 29, 2026 at 5:45 PM
The Query: Buy Bitcoin the first time it closes below its 200wk SMA. Being research, allow overlapping trades. Exit in 2 years.
Historically, Avg Trade delivers +7.94x and Median Trade +4.16x.
Bitcoin is not quite in deep value territory but arguably trades at an attractive discount.
Historically, Avg Trade delivers +7.94x and Median Trade +4.16x.
Bitcoin is not quite in deep value territory but arguably trades at an attractive discount.
I'm a Saylor skeptic. That said, despite the many challenges Strategy (MSTR) potentially faces, MSTR's STRETCH% reading is the 3rd deepest ever. These have been reliable bounce indications for traders with experience & discipline. Risk management is paramount in these trades.
*research not advice
*research not advice
June 26, 2026 at 1:46 PM
I'm a Saylor skeptic. That said, despite the many challenges Strategy (MSTR) potentially faces, MSTR's STRETCH% reading is the 3rd deepest ever. These have been reliable bounce indications for traders with experience & discipline. Risk management is paramount in these trades.
*research not advice
*research not advice
The last time the #$QQQ was down by at least 2.5% while still above its 200ma by >= +15% was in 2021.
With a 3-day hold, the stats are solid.
Hit Rate: 65%
Avg Win: +3.52%, Avg Loss: -3.51%
This setup has occurred in some remarkable years: 2000, 2003, 2009, 2020 and one in 2021. And now 2026.
With a 3-day hold, the stats are solid.
Hit Rate: 65%
Avg Win: +3.52%, Avg Loss: -3.51%
This setup has occurred in some remarkable years: 2000, 2003, 2009, 2020 and one in 2021. And now 2026.
June 23, 2026 at 4:39 PM
The last time the #$QQQ was down by at least 2.5% while still above its 200ma by >= +15% was in 2021.
With a 3-day hold, the stats are solid.
Hit Rate: 65%
Avg Win: +3.52%, Avg Loss: -3.51%
This setup has occurred in some remarkable years: 2000, 2003, 2009, 2020 and one in 2021. And now 2026.
With a 3-day hold, the stats are solid.
Hit Rate: 65%
Avg Win: +3.52%, Avg Loss: -3.51%
This setup has occurred in some remarkable years: 2000, 2003, 2009, 2020 and one in 2021. And now 2026.
Even a partial unraveling of any part of Strategy’s TradFi empire could have a potentially dramatic short-term effect on #Bitcoin and accelerate the cycle bottom.
The most compelling chart right now in crypto isn’t even crypto. It’s #$STRC.
Full analysis in my latest REKTelligence Report. Cheers
The most compelling chart right now in crypto isn’t even crypto. It’s #$STRC.
Full analysis in my latest REKTelligence Report. Cheers
June 18, 2026 at 2:20 PM
Compared to recent years, there’s a shift under way.
The Top 20 stocks inside the S&P 500 have carried the index for 2 of the last 3 years.
In 2026, however, the bottom (roughly) 480 are driving YTD returns.
While many debate “is this the top”, breadth remains strong.
The Top 20 stocks inside the S&P 500 have carried the index for 2 of the last 3 years.
In 2026, however, the bottom (roughly) 480 are driving YTD returns.
While many debate “is this the top”, breadth remains strong.
June 15, 2026 at 3:16 PM
Compared to recent years, there’s a shift under way.
The Top 20 stocks inside the S&P 500 have carried the index for 2 of the last 3 years.
In 2026, however, the bottom (roughly) 480 are driving YTD returns.
While many debate “is this the top”, breadth remains strong.
The Top 20 stocks inside the S&P 500 have carried the index for 2 of the last 3 years.
In 2026, however, the bottom (roughly) 480 are driving YTD returns.
While many debate “is this the top”, breadth remains strong.
Unless “this time is different”, #Bitcoin will have to trade below the Realized Price of the network, the Realized Price of Short-Term Holders and the Realized Price of Long-Term Holders before it can successfully bottom.
In prior cycles, this has occurred just before BTC bottoms.
In prior cycles, this has occurred just before BTC bottoms.
June 6, 2026 at 3:05 PM
Unless “this time is different”, #Bitcoin will have to trade below the Realized Price of the network, the Realized Price of Short-Term Holders and the Realized Price of Long-Term Holders before it can successfully bottom.
In prior cycles, this has occurred just before BTC bottoms.
In prior cycles, this has occurred just before BTC bottoms.
Deeply negative Stretch% readings often occur at major #Bitcoin lows.
Worst 5 Readings per year 2014 to now:
2020-03-12: -42.32% (BTC $4,970)
2015-01-14: -37.73% (BTC $178)
2018-02-05: -34.27% (BTC $6955)
The fear at these lows is palpable. The prices at these lows are long gone.
Worst 5 Readings per year 2014 to now:
2020-03-12: -42.32% (BTC $4,970)
2015-01-14: -37.73% (BTC $178)
2018-02-05: -34.27% (BTC $6955)
The fear at these lows is palpable. The prices at these lows are long gone.
June 2, 2026 at 4:35 PM
Deeply negative Stretch% readings often occur at major #Bitcoin lows.
Worst 5 Readings per year 2014 to now:
2020-03-12: -42.32% (BTC $4,970)
2015-01-14: -37.73% (BTC $178)
2018-02-05: -34.27% (BTC $6955)
The fear at these lows is palpable. The prices at these lows are long gone.
Worst 5 Readings per year 2014 to now:
2020-03-12: -42.32% (BTC $4,970)
2015-01-14: -37.73% (BTC $178)
2018-02-05: -34.27% (BTC $6955)
The fear at these lows is palpable. The prices at these lows are long gone.
With the divergence between the surging NASDAQ 100 & sagging Bitcoin growing, the BTC/NDX ratio hit a 2-yr low in Feb.
Test: “Buy Bitcoin when BTC/NDX hits a 2yr low. Exit 2 years later.”
Avg Trade: +1114.5%
Worst Result: +203.9%
Win Percent: 3/3
Limited data. Compelling value.
Test: “Buy Bitcoin when BTC/NDX hits a 2yr low. Exit 2 years later.”
Avg Trade: +1114.5%
Worst Result: +203.9%
Win Percent: 3/3
Limited data. Compelling value.
June 1, 2026 at 6:14 PM
With the divergence between the surging NASDAQ 100 & sagging Bitcoin growing, the BTC/NDX ratio hit a 2-yr low in Feb.
Test: “Buy Bitcoin when BTC/NDX hits a 2yr low. Exit 2 years later.”
Avg Trade: +1114.5%
Worst Result: +203.9%
Win Percent: 3/3
Limited data. Compelling value.
Test: “Buy Bitcoin when BTC/NDX hits a 2yr low. Exit 2 years later.”
Avg Trade: +1114.5%
Worst Result: +203.9%
Win Percent: 3/3
Limited data. Compelling value.
On a recent PompPodcast, Jordi Visser made a claim definitely worth examining: the stock market has been historically negative when #CPI is above 4%. I ran the numbers. Here’s what 110 years of data shows.
full report here: rektelligence.substack.com/p/the-4-infl...
CPI Regimes, 1915 - Present
full report here: rektelligence.substack.com/p/the-4-infl...
CPI Regimes, 1915 - Present
The 4% Inflation Line: Where Equity Returns Go to Die
Today's EDGE REPORT quantifies Jordi Visser's inflation claim over 110 years of SPX & Dow Industrials returns
rektelligence.substack.com
May 28, 2026 at 3:14 PM
On a recent PompPodcast, Jordi Visser made a claim definitely worth examining: the stock market has been historically negative when #CPI is above 4%. I ran the numbers. Here’s what 110 years of data shows.
full report here: rektelligence.substack.com/p/the-4-infl...
CPI Regimes, 1915 - Present
full report here: rektelligence.substack.com/p/the-4-infl...
CPI Regimes, 1915 - Present
The first stock I ever bought Xylogics (XLGX) got taken over in three weeks. I thought I was a genius.
I was not.
What followed was an expensive education. The only upside is that I got deadly serious about trading.
Luck runs out. Process doesn't.
I was not.
What followed was an expensive education. The only upside is that I got deadly serious about trading.
Luck runs out. Process doesn't.
May 27, 2026 at 3:11 PM
The first stock I ever bought Xylogics (XLGX) got taken over in three weeks. I thought I was a genius.
I was not.
What followed was an expensive education. The only upside is that I got deadly serious about trading.
Luck runs out. Process doesn't.
I was not.
What followed was an expensive education. The only upside is that I got deadly serious about trading.
Luck runs out. Process doesn't.
Spread or Ratio relationships are a rich area for those seeking alpha.
This model buys NDX (green, costs included) based on a momentum factor related to semiconductors.
Nearly matches Buy & Hold (blue) with dramatically lower Max DD.
More in an upcoming REKTelligence Report.
This model buys NDX (green, costs included) based on a momentum factor related to semiconductors.
Nearly matches Buy & Hold (blue) with dramatically lower Max DD.
More in an upcoming REKTelligence Report.
May 22, 2026 at 7:42 PM
Spread or Ratio relationships are a rich area for those seeking alpha.
This model buys NDX (green, costs included) based on a momentum factor related to semiconductors.
Nearly matches Buy & Hold (blue) with dramatically lower Max DD.
More in an upcoming REKTelligence Report.
This model buys NDX (green, costs included) based on a momentum factor related to semiconductors.
Nearly matches Buy & Hold (blue) with dramatically lower Max DD.
More in an upcoming REKTelligence Report.