Arthur
@riosarthur.bsky.social
Reposted by Arthur
"Descriptive statistics also require causal inference"
So true! In the Data Analyst's Guide, we illustrate it with a fun example: a registry study on spirituality among Danes 👇
theissbendixen.com/dag-book/
So true! In the Data Analyst's Guide, we illustrate it with a fun example: a registry study on spirituality among Danes 👇
theissbendixen.com/dag-book/
September 10, 2026 at 2:01 PM
"Descriptive statistics also require causal inference"
So true! In the Data Analyst's Guide, we illustrate it with a fun example: a registry study on spirituality among Danes 👇
theissbendixen.com/dag-book/
So true! In the Data Analyst's Guide, we illustrate it with a fun example: a registry study on spirituality among Danes 👇
theissbendixen.com/dag-book/
Reposted by Arthur
Big news! 🎉
𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚐𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚕𝚎𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚌𝚝𝚜 1.0.0 for #Rstats is out. It’s a big number and it feels like a big step.
I wrote a blog on the challenges of interpreting statistical models, SPEED, cool new features, the future, and a 5 year package development and writing odyssey.
arelbundock.com/posts/margin...
𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚐𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚕𝚎𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚌𝚝𝚜 1.0.0 for #Rstats is out. It’s a big number and it feels like a big step.
I wrote a blog on the challenges of interpreting statistical models, SPEED, cool new features, the future, and a 5 year package development and writing odyssey.
arelbundock.com/posts/margin...
September 4, 2026 at 1:48 PM
Big news! 🎉
𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚐𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚕𝚎𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚌𝚝𝚜 1.0.0 for #Rstats is out. It’s a big number and it feels like a big step.
I wrote a blog on the challenges of interpreting statistical models, SPEED, cool new features, the future, and a 5 year package development and writing odyssey.
arelbundock.com/posts/margin...
𝚖𝚊𝚛𝚐𝚒𝚗𝚊𝚕𝚎𝚏𝚏𝚎𝚌𝚝𝚜 1.0.0 for #Rstats is out. It’s a big number and it feels like a big step.
I wrote a blog on the challenges of interpreting statistical models, SPEED, cool new features, the future, and a 5 year package development and writing odyssey.
arelbundock.com/posts/margin...
Reposted by Arthur
"Statistical analyses serve to answer statistical questions. It is imperative that these questions align closely with the substantive research questions. But quite often, research questions are vague or formulated in several logically distinct ways."
August 27, 2026 at 9:14 AM
"Statistical analyses serve to answer statistical questions. It is imperative that these questions align closely with the substantive research questions. But quite often, research questions are vague or formulated in several logically distinct ways."
Reposted by Arthur
Men only want three things
August 26, 2026 at 3:28 AM
Men only want three things
Reposted by Arthur
Interesting essay by the great Kevin Munger. asteriskmag.com/issues/15/sa...
Saving Academics from Themselves
The university will survive AI. That doesn’t mean we’ll like what it turns into.
asteriskmag.com
August 26, 2026 at 7:58 PM
Interesting essay by the great Kevin Munger. asteriskmag.com/issues/15/sa...
Reposted by Arthur
Visando corte de gastos pra investir bastante em IA, a Microsoft cortou 400000 licenças de ONGS ao redor do mundo. Só que óbvio, não comunicaram isso direito, e aí 40 % delas perderam arquivos de forma irreversível.
https://slate.com/technology/2026/08/microsoft-software-nonprofit-data-delete.html
https://slate.com/technology/2026/08/microsoft-software-nonprofit-data-delete.html
The Quiet Decision Microsoft Made That Devastated Thousands of Nonprofits
When the tech giant retired a popular software grant, years of nonprofit data vanished with it.
slate.com
August 25, 2026 at 2:53 PM
Visando corte de gastos pra investir bastante em IA, a Microsoft cortou 400000 licenças de ONGS ao redor do mundo. Só que óbvio, não comunicaram isso direito, e aí 40 % delas perderam arquivos de forma irreversível.
https://slate.com/technology/2026/08/microsoft-software-nonprofit-data-delete.html
https://slate.com/technology/2026/08/microsoft-software-nonprofit-data-delete.html
Reposted by Arthur
there are two wolves inside you. one is a bear
If you want to read more, and see the rest of the photo set, the best source I've found is here:
Unique friendship between wolf and bear documented by Finnish photographer
A female gray wolf and a male brown bear were spotted every day for ten consecutive days, spending time together, playing and even sharing food. “It’s
www.zmescience.com
August 22, 2026 at 3:37 PM
there are two wolves inside you. one is a bear
Reposted by Arthur
For enjoyers of this thread on reasons not use ratio outcome variables in statistical analysis, I have a short blog post from 2022 about why dividing an outcome by something like population density doesn't always control for population density: elevanth.org/blog/2022/09...
August 14, 2026 at 12:41 PM
For enjoyers of this thread on reasons not use ratio outcome variables in statistical analysis, I have a short blog post from 2022 about why dividing an outcome by something like population density doesn't always control for population density: elevanth.org/blog/2022/09...
Reposted by Arthur
Working on my book, and as always getting distracted in side quests reading old primary lit. This week it seems to be this 1988 paper by Zellner advancing an optimality argument for bayes theorem (rather than usual coherence arguments). I might try to make a geometric version of this argument...
August 11, 2026 at 9:24 AM
Working on my book, and as always getting distracted in side quests reading old primary lit. This week it seems to be this 1988 paper by Zellner advancing an optimality argument for bayes theorem (rather than usual coherence arguments). I might try to make a geometric version of this argument...
Reposted by Arthur
Long ass post on exchangeability because we built a hierarchcal bayes feature
dpananos.github.io/posts/2026-0...
dpananos.github.io/posts/2026-0...
Exchangeability in AB Testing – Demetri Pananos Ph.D
dpananos.github.io
August 8, 2026 at 2:24 AM
Long ass post on exchangeability because we built a hierarchcal bayes feature
dpananos.github.io/posts/2026-0...
dpananos.github.io/posts/2026-0...
Reposted by Arthur
Reposted by Arthur
I had this idea to do a series of short lessons on learning probabilistic programming (with Stan etc), based on the Zen "Ten Bulls": 1 search 2 discovery 3 perception 4 capture 5 taming 6 riding 7 goal forgotten 8 self forgotten 9 back to the start 10 teaching. Would take some work to develop though
August 1, 2026 at 1:54 PM
I had this idea to do a series of short lessons on learning probabilistic programming (with Stan etc), based on the Zen "Ten Bulls": 1 search 2 discovery 3 perception 4 capture 5 taming 6 riding 7 goal forgotten 8 self forgotten 9 back to the start 10 teaching. Would take some work to develop though
Reposted by Arthur
I don't care what the haters say, tikz is nice, can have a tiny fish for a treat
![code to generate the tikz plot:
\begin{tikzpicture}
\begin{axis}[axis lines = left, xlabel = $T$, ylabel = $f$,
width=7cm, height=4cm,
tick label style={font=\tiny},
label style={font=\small} ]
\addplot[domain=-3:27.5, red, thick, samples=70]
{exp( (x-25)/(0.5*(30-25)) )*( 1 - (x-25)/(0.5*(30-25)) )};
\node at (100,500) {\includegraphics[width=1.25cm]{fish.jpg}};
\end{axis}
\end{tikzpicture}](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ta2whs6wjtpljvpqgs5leu36/bafkreigw4x5f2cfs5lm2g5koapngbpo7dphniz5bpyzbwzbymyn7b5ndmq)
July 30, 2026 at 8:35 AM
I don't care what the haters say, tikz is nice, can have a tiny fish for a treat
Reposted by Arthur
People have been asking me how one can use AI to help write quarto revealjs slides. Beyond pointing it at the static documentation, i have now created a number of skills that should be able to handle most tasks
npx skills add emilhvitfeldt/slidecrafting.com
github.com/EmilHvitfeld...
#quarto
npx skills add emilhvitfeldt/slidecrafting.com
github.com/EmilHvitfeld...
#quarto
GitHub - EmilHvitfeldt/slidecrafting-book.com
Contribute to EmilHvitfeldt/slidecrafting-book.com development by creating an account on GitHub.
github.com
July 28, 2026 at 4:34 PM
People have been asking me how one can use AI to help write quarto revealjs slides. Beyond pointing it at the static documentation, i have now created a number of skills that should be able to handle most tasks
npx skills add emilhvitfeldt/slidecrafting.com
github.com/EmilHvitfeld...
#quarto
npx skills add emilhvitfeldt/slidecrafting.com
github.com/EmilHvitfeld...
#quarto
Reposted by Arthur
Did they at least blame AI for making the slides?
We can't even. "A senior US State Department official displayed a map of Africa that was completely wrong before high-level officials from African nations, including some whose countries had been mislabelled."
open.substack.com/pub/emilysba...
open.substack.com/pub/emilysba...
The US State Department Redraws the Map of Africa at the AIDS2026 Conference
And rewrites history, too. All before the official opening.
open.substack.com
July 28, 2026 at 12:34 AM
Did they at least blame AI for making the slides?
Reposted by Arthur
Things will get worse as more students secretly use AI to do homework. There has always been a divide between those who care about education for its own sake and those who only care about grades, but AI will worsen this divide, leaving fewer people with the ability to do causal reasoning.
July 24, 2026 at 12:16 AM
Things will get worse as more students secretly use AI to do homework. There has always been a divide between those who care about education for its own sake and those who only care about grades, but AI will worsen this divide, leaving fewer people with the ability to do causal reasoning.
Reposted by Arthur
When I am writing, I end up looking up lots of weird details. Today, I looked up who is responsible for the statistical independence symbol: Finnish mathematician Gustav Elfving in 1950s. He used a double orthogonal ⊥⊥, bc independence is stronger than orthogonality. Dawid's 1979 paper squished it.
July 21, 2026 at 3:52 PM
When I am writing, I end up looking up lots of weird details. Today, I looked up who is responsible for the statistical independence symbol: Finnish mathematician Gustav Elfving in 1950s. He used a double orthogonal ⊥⊥, bc independence is stronger than orthogonality. Dawid's 1979 paper squished it.
Reposted by Arthur
"como que tá o trabalho aí o cliente tá cobrando"
eu editando o cachorro do meu amigo pra parecer que ela tá atualizando:
eu editando o cachorro do meu amigo pra parecer que ela tá atualizando:
July 16, 2026 at 2:49 PM
"como que tá o trabalho aí o cliente tá cobrando"
eu editando o cachorro do meu amigo pra parecer que ela tá atualizando:
eu editando o cachorro do meu amigo pra parecer que ela tá atualizando:
Reposted by Arthur
New: the highly controversial AI music generator Suno was hacked. The hacker sent us Suno source code; it shows the company scraped YouTube Music, Deezer, and Genius. In all, Suno scraped *decades* worth of music from the internet. Obviously didn't pay artists www.404media.co/hack-reveals...
July 15, 2026 at 2:06 PM
New: the highly controversial AI music generator Suno was hacked. The hacker sent us Suno source code; it shows the company scraped YouTube Music, Deezer, and Genius. In all, Suno scraped *decades* worth of music from the internet. Obviously didn't pay artists www.404media.co/hack-reveals...
Reposted by Arthur
If Haaland wanted a raccoon, he should have come to Leipzig. We have I think 1.2 million of them.
July 14, 2026 at 11:05 AM
If Haaland wanted a raccoon, he should have come to Leipzig. We have I think 1.2 million of them.
Reposted by Arthur
18 Associate Editors resign from Statistics and Computing editorial board: Problems with commercial scholarly publishing, and what does this all mean?
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/10/1...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/10/1...
18 Associate Editors resign from Statistics and Computing editorial board: Problems with commercial scholarly publishing, and what does this all mean? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and S...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
July 10, 2026 at 2:06 PM
18 Associate Editors resign from Statistics and Computing editorial board: Problems with commercial scholarly publishing, and what does this all mean?
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/10/1...
statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/07/10/1...
Reposted by Arthur
ela recusou fazer PUBLI DE BET gente! vamos dar o nome aos bois ok? É DE BET QUE ELA TÁ FALANDO! ela deixou claro que “não poderia interpretar eunice paiva nos cinemas e compactuar com algo tão absurdo como bets”. sabe pq? PQ BET É UMA DESGRAÇA!!!
🗞️Fernanda Torres recusou oferta milionária após sucesso no Oscar e Globo de Ouro
Atriz falou brevemente sobre as propostas de publicidade que recebeu após o sucesso do filme 'Ainda Estou Aqui'
Atriz falou brevemente sobre as propostas de publicidade que recebeu após o sucesso do filme 'Ainda Estou Aqui'
Fernanda Torres recusou oferta milionária após sucesso no Oscar e Globo de Ouro
Atriz falou brevemente sobre as propostas de publicidade que recebeu após o sucesso do filme 'Ainda Estou Aqui'
www.correiobraziliense.com.br
July 9, 2026 at 12:38 PM
ela recusou fazer PUBLI DE BET gente! vamos dar o nome aos bois ok? É DE BET QUE ELA TÁ FALANDO! ela deixou claro que “não poderia interpretar eunice paiva nos cinemas e compactuar com algo tão absurdo como bets”. sabe pq? PQ BET É UMA DESGRAÇA!!!
Reposted by Arthur
Reposted by Arthur
I went here and everybody knew you
July 4, 2026 at 11:36 AM
I went here and everybody knew you