Robert Rust
@rrucs.bsky.social
China Analyst, Union of Concerned Scientists Global Security Program.
US-China relations, especially on nukes, arms control and the like. Views my own, likes/RTs ≠ endorsements. I'm not here representing Hardbodies.
US-China relations, especially on nukes, arms control and the like. Views my own, likes/RTs ≠ endorsements. I'm not here representing Hardbodies.
Pinned
My first for
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social, a deep dive on a CCTV doc about China's missile silos and thoughts on what a direct reference to the project in prominent media means for our understanding of China's nuclear thinking: thebulletin.org/2026/09/here...
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social, a deep dive on a CCTV doc about China's missile silos and thoughts on what a direct reference to the project in prominent media means for our understanding of China's nuclear thinking: thebulletin.org/2026/09/here...
Here's why China acknowledged its new missile silos in a documentary
A state media documentary featuring a PLA missile engineer provides the first semi-official acknowledgment of China's vast ICBM silo fields. By highlighting the high-level rush to complete the project...
thebulletin.org
September 15, 2026 at 2:19 PM
My first for
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social, a deep dive on a CCTV doc about China's missile silos and thoughts on what a direct reference to the project in prominent media means for our understanding of China's nuclear thinking: thebulletin.org/2026/09/here...
@bulletinatomic.bsky.social, a deep dive on a CCTV doc about China's missile silos and thoughts on what a direct reference to the project in prominent media means for our understanding of China's nuclear thinking: thebulletin.org/2026/09/here...
Reposted by Robert Rust
A state media documentary provides the first semi-official acknowledgment of China's ICBM silo fields. By highlighting the rush to complete the project, Beijing signals that this expansion is driven by a need to secure a second-strike deterrent against US missile defenses, writes @rrucs.bsky.social.
Here's why China acknowledged its new missile silos in a documentary
A state media documentary featuring a PLA missile engineer provides the first semi-official acknowledgment of China's vast ICBM silo fields. By highlighting the high-level rush to complete the…
thebulletin.org
September 15, 2026 at 2:04 PM
A state media documentary provides the first semi-official acknowledgment of China's ICBM silo fields. By highlighting the rush to complete the project, Beijing signals that this expansion is driven by a need to secure a second-strike deterrent against US missile defenses, writes @rrucs.bsky.social.
Reposted by Robert Rust
Why did China just break its silence on its massive new ICBM silo fields?
In @thebulletin.org, Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social breaks down a recent Chinese state media documentary that marks the first semi-official acknowledgment of the silo project. 🧵
In @thebulletin.org, Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social breaks down a recent Chinese state media documentary that marks the first semi-official acknowledgment of the silo project. 🧵
September 15, 2026 at 12:42 PM
Why did China just break its silence on its massive new ICBM silo fields?
In @thebulletin.org, Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social breaks down a recent Chinese state media documentary that marks the first semi-official acknowledgment of the silo project. 🧵
In @thebulletin.org, Robert Rust @rrucs.bsky.social breaks down a recent Chinese state media documentary that marks the first semi-official acknowledgment of the silo project. 🧵
Join the Union of Concerned Scientists, New Diplomacy Initiative (JP), and Korea Diplomacy Plaza tonight at 8pm EST for a webinar featuring US, Japanese, South Korean and Chinese expert perspectives on the Iran War! Register here for a Zoom link: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: East Asian perspectives on the Iran War - East Asia Quadrilateral Dialogue . After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webi...
Welcome! You are invited to join a webinar: East Asian perspectives on the Iran War - East Asia Quadrilateral Dialogue . After registering, you will receive a confirmation email about joining the webi...
us06web.zoom.us
September 8, 2026 at 5:41 PM
Join the Union of Concerned Scientists, New Diplomacy Initiative (JP), and Korea Diplomacy Plaza tonight at 8pm EST for a webinar featuring US, Japanese, South Korean and Chinese expert perspectives on the Iran War! Register here for a Zoom link: us06web.zoom.us/webinar/regi...
Reposted by Robert Rust
Yes popular opinion on an issue that directly affects hundreds of communities down to the air they breathe is more urgent than on an issue that affects so few people that it currently centers on the WNBA, a league with no trans athletes
me (stunned): …and what do you call your act?
matt: “The Popularists!”
matt: “The Popularists!”
August 24, 2026 at 2:03 PM
Yes popular opinion on an issue that directly affects hundreds of communities down to the air they breathe is more urgent than on an issue that affects so few people that it currently centers on the WNBA, a league with no trans athletes
Reposted by Robert Rust
“Within minutes of a strike on a school full of children on the first day of the war against Iran, Pentagon officials knew that the U.S. military was responsible for leveling the site.”
More than a ballroom or arch, these dead kids will be this president’s legacy.
www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/u...
More than a ballroom or arch, these dead kids will be this president’s legacy.
www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/u...
After U.S. Strike on Iranian School, Months Pass Without Answers
www.nytimes.com
June 16, 2026 at 5:32 PM
“Within minutes of a strike on a school full of children on the first day of the war against Iran, Pentagon officials knew that the U.S. military was responsible for leveling the site.”
More than a ballroom or arch, these dead kids will be this president’s legacy.
www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/u...
More than a ballroom or arch, these dead kids will be this president’s legacy.
www.nytimes.com/2026/06/16/u...
Reposted by Robert Rust
It’s the healthcare!!!
June 15, 2026 at 4:42 PM
It’s the healthcare!!!
So that story about the Apache getting hit by a drone is made up right?
June 11, 2026 at 1:17 PM
So that story about the Apache getting hit by a drone is made up right?
Reposted by Robert Rust
Wonder if this is the first time the word “cuckolds” has appeared on a .gov website
June 9, 2026 at 8:30 PM
Wonder if this is the first time the word “cuckolds” has appeared on a .gov website
Some thoughts on Trump's visit to Beijing. The main takeaway: China accepting a framework of "managed competition" for the bilateral relationship is new. Whether we'll actually get long-term stability remains to be seen. blog.ucs.org/robert-rust/...
Trump and Xi Take a First Step Toward Better Relations
During their May summit in Beijing, the US and Chinese leaders agreed to pursue "constructive strategic stability"—a vague term with important historical context.
blog.ucs.org
June 8, 2026 at 8:16 PM
Some thoughts on Trump's visit to Beijing. The main takeaway: China accepting a framework of "managed competition" for the bilateral relationship is new. Whether we'll actually get long-term stability remains to be seen. blog.ucs.org/robert-rust/...
Reposted by Robert Rust
lmfao who explained the thucydides trap to him
Trump: “When President Xi very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps being a declining nation, he was referring to the tremendous damage we suffered during the four years of Sleepy Joe Biden and the Biden Administration, and on that score, he was 100% correct.”
May 14, 2026 at 10:06 PM
lmfao who explained the thucydides trap to him
Batting way below the Mendoza line on guessing whether a meeting or conference will be a tie/no tie vibe
May 14, 2026 at 6:13 PM
Batting way below the Mendoza line on guessing whether a meeting or conference will be a tie/no tie vibe
Masterful gambit, exhibit 54836 or something.
Snack maker Calbee's packages go black and white amid Iran war ink crunch
Other Japanese firms eye similar moves as naphtha shortage hits food packaging
trib.al/yiKjeEC
Other Japanese firms eye similar moves as naphtha shortage hits food packaging
trib.al/yiKjeEC
Snack maker Calbee's packages go black and white amid Iran war ink crunch
Other Japanese firms eye similar moves as naphtha shortage hits food packaging
trib.al
May 12, 2026 at 1:59 PM
Masterful gambit, exhibit 54836 or something.
Reposted by Robert Rust
"There are lessons from the Taiwan Strait Crisis of the 1950s that can help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and rescue the global economy," writes @gkucs.bsky.social in his latest blog:
Iran and Taiwan: A Tale of Two Straits
The Taiwan Strait crisis of the 1950s holds lessons for the United States in its ongoing war against Iran.
blog.ucs.org
May 6, 2026 at 4:00 PM
"There are lessons from the Taiwan Strait Crisis of the 1950s that can help reopen the Strait of Hormuz and rescue the global economy," writes @gkucs.bsky.social in his latest blog:
Reposted by Robert Rust
trying to play peekaboo with my child but he's a European diplomat:
me: where'd daddy go?
baby: we must articulate a post-daddy vision of strategic autonomy
me: peekaboo!
baby: my historic relationship with my father is stable despite recent troubles
me: where'd daddy go?
baby: we must articulate a post-daddy vision of strategic autonomy
me: peekaboo!
baby: my historic relationship with my father is stable despite recent troubles
April 29, 2026 at 5:29 AM
trying to play peekaboo with my child but he's a European diplomat:
me: where'd daddy go?
baby: we must articulate a post-daddy vision of strategic autonomy
me: peekaboo!
baby: my historic relationship with my father is stable despite recent troubles
me: where'd daddy go?
baby: we must articulate a post-daddy vision of strategic autonomy
me: peekaboo!
baby: my historic relationship with my father is stable despite recent troubles
This dang phone.
What is the most cursed object in your home? Ours is a heavily personally annotated book of Cheryl Strayed aphorisms that someone who thought she was much closer to my wife than she actually was gave her.
April 27, 2026 at 4:59 AM
This dang phone.
Calling my shot: resale ticket prices to the average group stage game will crater a few weeks out from the tournament, and most games will still be 2/3rds full at best.
April 23, 2026 at 7:01 PM
Calling my shot: resale ticket prices to the average group stage game will crater a few weeks out from the tournament, and most games will still be 2/3rds full at best.
Reposted by Robert Rust
Trump’s proposed 2027 budget would almost double the budget for plutonium pits, the chemical filled metal sphere inside a nuclear warhead that kicks off the explosion in a nuclear weapon. @evystadium.bsky.social has more.
Story by @mjgault.bsky.social: www.404media.co/trump-2027-b...
Story by @mjgault.bsky.social: www.404media.co/trump-2027-b...
April 22, 2026 at 9:38 PM
Trump’s proposed 2027 budget would almost double the budget for plutonium pits, the chemical filled metal sphere inside a nuclear warhead that kicks off the explosion in a nuclear weapon. @evystadium.bsky.social has more.
Story by @mjgault.bsky.social: www.404media.co/trump-2027-b...
Story by @mjgault.bsky.social: www.404media.co/trump-2027-b...
Reposted by Robert Rust
China’s exports of solar equipment in March were equivalent to Spain's entire solar capacity, hitting a record as high energy prices have countries seeking alternative power source.
trib.al/QBf0zZy
trib.al/QBf0zZy
Iran war pushes China's solar exports to record high in March
Single month's shipments equivalent to Spain's entire solar capacity, report says
trib.al
April 23, 2026 at 5:19 AM
China’s exports of solar equipment in March were equivalent to Spain's entire solar capacity, hitting a record as high energy prices have countries seeking alternative power source.
trib.al/QBf0zZy
trib.al/QBf0zZy
Eyes rolled back a full 180 degrees at this sentence in ChinaTalk's Dwarkesh/Jensen reaction
April 22, 2026 at 1:35 PM
Eyes rolled back a full 180 degrees at this sentence in ChinaTalk's Dwarkesh/Jensen reaction