Thorsteinn Kristinsson
@stennikr.bsky.social
Footloose academic. Interested in rising powers, relational IR, Liberal International Order, Asian regionalism, small state studies.
📍Taipei, Lund, Reykjavik
Institute of International Affairs, University of Iceland
https://ams.hi.is/en/people/294/
📍Taipei, Lund, Reykjavik
Institute of International Affairs, University of Iceland
https://ams.hi.is/en/people/294/
Pinned
China has little to gain and everything to lose by altering the world’s current geopolitical trajectory.
Why China Will Not Invade Taiwan (For Now)
China has little to gain and everything to lose by altering the world’s current geopolitical trajectory.
buff.ly
My latest from @thediplomat.com
Icelanders are voting this Saturday, 29 August, on whether to resume membership negotiations with the European Union. In the accompanying article I discuss how ongoing changes in the international system - and the crisis of the Western alliance in particular - shape Iceland's options.
Ísland, Evrópa og áhrifasvæði stórvelda - Vísir
Eftir nokkra daga ganga Íslendingar að kjörborðinu og svara því hvort hefja skuli aðildarviðræður við Evrópusambandið að nýju.
www.visir.is
August 27, 2026 at 9:58 AM
Icelanders are voting this Saturday, 29 August, on whether to resume membership negotiations with the European Union. In the accompanying article I discuss how ongoing changes in the international system - and the crisis of the Western alliance in particular - shape Iceland's options.
It seems that the planned expansion of French nuclear deterrence in Europe is causing some jitters in Washington.
June 2, 2026 at 7:10 AM
It seems that the planned expansion of French nuclear deterrence in Europe is causing some jitters in Washington.
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
Defenders of the rules-based system would have condemned the invasion of Iran, and not signed the Turnberry deal. But if the EU was militarily strong enough to defend itself and Ukraine, without US help, it would be able to defend the values its citizens believe in. That should be the agenda.
EU's von der Leyen:
We will always defend and uphold the rules-based system that we helped to build with our allies, but we can no longer rely on it as the only way to defend our interests.
Aka USA cannot be relied upon. Probably for a long time, even with regime change
We will always defend and uphold the rules-based system that we helped to build with our allies, but we can no longer rely on it as the only way to defend our interests.
Aka USA cannot be relied upon. Probably for a long time, even with regime change
March 9, 2026 at 1:18 PM
Defenders of the rules-based system would have condemned the invasion of Iran, and not signed the Turnberry deal. But if the EU was militarily strong enough to defend itself and Ukraine, without US help, it would be able to defend the values its citizens believe in. That should be the agenda.
I have a hard time wrapping my head around Merz. One day he's taking bold steps towards European autonomy and breaking with long-standing taboos. The next he's outdoing Meloni in Trump sycophancy and undermining European unity.
He's been flip-flopping between these positions from day 1.
He's been flip-flopping between these positions from day 1.
March 4, 2026 at 11:19 AM
I have a hard time wrapping my head around Merz. One day he's taking bold steps towards European autonomy and breaking with long-standing taboos. The next he's outdoing Meloni in Trump sycophancy and undermining European unity.
He's been flip-flopping between these positions from day 1.
He's been flip-flopping between these positions from day 1.
Miðflokksmenn tala gjarnan um hópa sem ekki vilja aðlagast siðum og venjum samfélagsins og telja að trúarbrögð sín standi landslögum framar.
Þeir eru væntanlega að tala um kaþólsku kirkjuna.
Þeir eru væntanlega að tala um kaþólsku kirkjuna.
March 4, 2026 at 7:13 AM
Miðflokksmenn tala gjarnan um hópa sem ekki vilja aðlagast siðum og venjum samfélagsins og telja að trúarbrögð sín standi landslögum framar.
Þeir eru væntanlega að tala um kaþólsku kirkjuna.
Þeir eru væntanlega að tala um kaþólsku kirkjuna.
This is diehard Atlanticist cope.
It sounds like it's finally dawning on Washington and their spokespeople across the Atlantic that Europe may actually slip out of their sphere of influence for good.
It sounds like it's finally dawning on Washington and their spokespeople across the Atlantic that Europe may actually slip out of their sphere of influence for good.
January 27, 2026 at 5:31 AM
This is diehard Atlanticist cope.
It sounds like it's finally dawning on Washington and their spokespeople across the Atlantic that Europe may actually slip out of their sphere of influence for good.
It sounds like it's finally dawning on Washington and their spokespeople across the Atlantic that Europe may actually slip out of their sphere of influence for good.
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
So to be clear we have actually reached the point where NATO states are deploying tripwire forces to deter *another NATO state* from invading *another NATO state.*
I struggle to communicate the strategic and just regular insanity of this moment.
I struggle to communicate the strategic and just regular insanity of this moment.
Sweden is over Trump's nonsense about Greenland and is sending in troops.
SWEDEN, PEOPLE.
SWEDEN, PEOPLE.
January 14, 2026 at 5:57 PM
So to be clear we have actually reached the point where NATO states are deploying tripwire forces to deter *another NATO state* from invading *another NATO state.*
I struggle to communicate the strategic and just regular insanity of this moment.
I struggle to communicate the strategic and just regular insanity of this moment.
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
By letting Putin off the hook in Ukraine and behaving this way in their own backyard, the U.S. also give China many excuses to attack Taiwan and decimate its leadership.
Venezuela now, because he wants the oil.
He wants the oil under Greenland too. And under Canada. He's openly called for them to be part of the USA.
How long before he decides to bomb a couple of NATO members to get his own way?
The USA is a rogue nation.
He wants the oil under Greenland too. And under Canada. He's openly called for them to be part of the USA.
How long before he decides to bomb a couple of NATO members to get his own way?
The USA is a rogue nation.
January 3, 2026 at 10:11 AM
By letting Putin off the hook in Ukraine and behaving this way in their own backyard, the U.S. also give China many excuses to attack Taiwan and decimate its leadership.
Iceland has officially pulled out of Eurovision. Good stuff.
December 10, 2025 at 4:36 PM
Iceland has officially pulled out of Eurovision. Good stuff.
This comes as Taiwan makes a huge diplomatic push into Europe. I wonder if Taiwan's leaders realise just how badly this goes down with large parts of the European and global publics.
Apart from the utter immorality of the stance, it's also very counterproductive to Taiwan's interests.
Apart from the utter immorality of the stance, it's also very counterproductive to Taiwan's interests.
November 13, 2025 at 11:41 AM
This comes as Taiwan makes a huge diplomatic push into Europe. I wonder if Taiwan's leaders realise just how badly this goes down with large parts of the European and global publics.
Apart from the utter immorality of the stance, it's also very counterproductive to Taiwan's interests.
Apart from the utter immorality of the stance, it's also very counterproductive to Taiwan's interests.
Let’s rephrase the question.
“Whose judgment is worth more: government actors, making political decisions to achieve ideological goals, or the market?”
According to Milei - the beacon of contemporary libertarianism - it’s the government.
on.ft.com/4qLuOoO
“Whose judgment is worth more: government actors, making political decisions to achieve ideological goals, or the market?”
According to Milei - the beacon of contemporary libertarianism - it’s the government.
on.ft.com/4qLuOoO
November 6, 2025 at 2:45 PM
Let’s rephrase the question.
“Whose judgment is worth more: government actors, making political decisions to achieve ideological goals, or the market?”
According to Milei - the beacon of contemporary libertarianism - it’s the government.
on.ft.com/4qLuOoO
“Whose judgment is worth more: government actors, making political decisions to achieve ideological goals, or the market?”
According to Milei - the beacon of contemporary libertarianism - it’s the government.
on.ft.com/4qLuOoO
I’ve wondered the same thing about Icelandic conservatives.
Having screamed about sovereignty for as long as I can remember, they’ve now fallen conspicuously silent as their friends across the Atlantic are literally threatening to annex our closest neighbour by force.
Having screamed about sovereignty for as long as I can remember, they’ve now fallen conspicuously silent as their friends across the Atlantic are literally threatening to annex our closest neighbour by force.
September 18, 2025 at 2:27 AM
I’ve wondered the same thing about Icelandic conservatives.
Having screamed about sovereignty for as long as I can remember, they’ve now fallen conspicuously silent as their friends across the Atlantic are literally threatening to annex our closest neighbour by force.
Having screamed about sovereignty for as long as I can remember, they’ve now fallen conspicuously silent as their friends across the Atlantic are literally threatening to annex our closest neighbour by force.
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
My latest from @thediplomat.com
China has little to gain and everything to lose by altering the world’s current geopolitical trajectory.
Why China Will Not Invade Taiwan (For Now)
China has little to gain and everything to lose by altering the world’s current geopolitical trajectory.
buff.ly
May 17, 2025 at 8:46 AM
My latest from @thediplomat.com
A new piece by me in @thediplomat.com.
I argue that, despite considerable speculation to the contrary, #China will not invade #Taiwan in the near future.
In fact, the Trump administration's trade wars are decreasing that likelihood.
I argue that, despite considerable speculation to the contrary, #China will not invade #Taiwan in the near future.
In fact, the Trump administration's trade wars are decreasing that likelihood.
Why China Will Not Invade Taiwan (For Now)
China has little to gain and everything to lose by altering the world’s current geopolitical trajectory.
thediplomat.com
May 16, 2025 at 7:08 AM
A new piece by me in @thediplomat.com.
I argue that, despite considerable speculation to the contrary, #China will not invade #Taiwan in the near future.
In fact, the Trump administration's trade wars are decreasing that likelihood.
I argue that, despite considerable speculation to the contrary, #China will not invade #Taiwan in the near future.
In fact, the Trump administration's trade wars are decreasing that likelihood.
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
May 9, 2025 at 2:58 PM
How it started: How it’s going:
April 24, 2025 at 1:04 PM
How it started: How it’s going:
Ég hélt í augnablik að þessi fyrirsögn sneri að utanríkisstefnu Íslands.
Og finnst það svo sem alveg passa.
Og finnst það svo sem alveg passa.
April 12, 2025 at 9:13 AM
Ég hélt í augnablik að þessi fyrirsögn sneri að utanríkisstefnu Íslands.
Og finnst það svo sem alveg passa.
Og finnst það svo sem alveg passa.
Reposted by Thorsteinn Kristinsson
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
My latest. Escalation with China will be Trump's economic equivalent of the Vietnam War. The US will lose bigly. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... via @foreignaffairs.com
My latest. Escalation with China will be Trump's economic equivalent of the Vietnam War. The US will lose bigly. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... via @foreignaffairs.com
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
Beijing has escalation dominance in the U.S.-China tariff fight.
www.foreignaffairs.com
April 9, 2025 at 9:24 PM
Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
My latest. Escalation with China will be Trump's economic equivalent of the Vietnam War. The US will lose bigly. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... via @foreignaffairs.com
My latest. Escalation with China will be Trump's economic equivalent of the Vietnam War. The US will lose bigly. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state... via @foreignaffairs.com
US two days ago:
"We are starting a trade war with the whole world! Every country will come crawling to us pleading for mercy and deals. Also, we're poaching your most valuable firms."
US today:
"OK, sorry, we didn't mean that. But can you guys please join our team effort to squeeze China?"
"We are starting a trade war with the whole world! Every country will come crawling to us pleading for mercy and deals. Also, we're poaching your most valuable firms."
US today:
"OK, sorry, we didn't mean that. But can you guys please join our team effort to squeeze China?"
Bessent now talking about a group approach to China. Not sure whether to laugh or cry
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Bessent Sees a Deal With Allies, Then Group Approach on China
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he envisions reaching trade agreements with US allies that would then lay the ground for a collective approach toward Beijing to address what he described as Chin...
www.bloomberg.com
April 10, 2025 at 7:38 AM
US two days ago:
"We are starting a trade war with the whole world! Every country will come crawling to us pleading for mercy and deals. Also, we're poaching your most valuable firms."
US today:
"OK, sorry, we didn't mean that. But can you guys please join our team effort to squeeze China?"
"We are starting a trade war with the whole world! Every country will come crawling to us pleading for mercy and deals. Also, we're poaching your most valuable firms."
US today:
"OK, sorry, we didn't mean that. But can you guys please join our team effort to squeeze China?"
two days ago, the Brits were padding themselves on the back for getting "better" tariff treatment than the EU.
Trade war makes improved UK-EU relations ‘imperative’, says Reeves
https://www.ft.com/content/f51a368a-ff9a-46d8-9ab5-58aa3ca7ecc4
https://www.ft.com/content/f51a368a-ff9a-46d8-9ab5-58aa3ca7ecc4
Trade war makes improved UK-EU relations ‘imperative’, says Reeves
Britain could exploit the chaos unleashed by Donald Trump, chancellor tells FT
www.ft.com
April 9, 2025 at 11:04 AM
two days ago, the Brits were padding themselves on the back for getting "better" tariff treatment than the EU.
For Taiwan, it's always nice to see its status as a country reinforced by being labelled as such on a prominent list with other countries.
Well... except on this list. We could definitely have done without this one.
Well... except on this list. We could definitely have done without this one.
April 3, 2025 at 8:29 AM
For Taiwan, it's always nice to see its status as a country reinforced by being labelled as such on a prominent list with other countries.
Well... except on this list. We could definitely have done without this one.
Well... except on this list. We could definitely have done without this one.
Maybe Trump has some positive climate change policies after all.
Let’s presume Trump is able to magically force every car manufacturer to build every part of every car in the United States
With unions imposing their minimum wage and benefits requirements, exactly how much more expensive would that car be than it is today
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
More?
With unions imposing their minimum wage and benefits requirements, exactly how much more expensive would that car be than it is today
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
More?
March 30, 2025 at 4:16 PM
Maybe Trump has some positive climate change policies after all.
My favourite part is that Trump believes the US has a “champagne business”.
March 13, 2025 at 1:34 PM
My favourite part is that Trump believes the US has a “champagne business”.