Jonas Plaut
@thecapcrunch.bsky.social
Pinned
Jonas Plaut
@thecapcrunch.bsky.social
· Oct 9
The Cap Crunch | Jonas P | Substack
Welcome to The Cap Crunch, a Substack dedicated to providing insight and content about the NBA. Click to read The Cap Crunch, by Jonas P, a Substack publication. Launched a year ago.
thecapcrunch.substack.com
Launching The Cap Crunch - a Substack that analyzes the strategy behind the NBA. I break down roster building, team outlooks, contract negotiations, and conduct deep dives into trends and Front Office strategy.
If you are interested, follow here, and click the link:
thecapcrunch.substack.com
If you are interested, follow here, and click the link:
thecapcrunch.substack.com
Mitchell Robinson sits at the center of the Knicks’ first major post-championship decision. An in-depth analysis of his negotiation dynamics, market valuation, and the 2nd Apron crossroads that could shape New York’s championship defense.
Boards, Banners, and the 2nd Apron
A Mitchell Robinson UFA Outlook
thecapcrunch.substack.com
June 20, 2026 at 3:29 PM
Mitchell Robinson sits at the center of the Knicks’ first major post-championship decision. An in-depth analysis of his negotiation dynamics, market valuation, and the 2nd Apron crossroads that could shape New York’s championship defense.
Armed with flexibility, draft capital, and a promising young core led by Jalen Johnson, the Atlanta Hawks face a pivotal offseason as they chart the next phase of their build. A strategic analysis of the team's summer linked below.
Hawks Rising
An Atlanta Hawks 2026-27 Offseason Outlook
thecapcrunch.substack.com
June 17, 2026 at 7:40 PM
Armed with flexibility, draft capital, and a promising young core led by Jalen Johnson, the Atlanta Hawks face a pivotal offseason as they chart the next phase of their build. A strategic analysis of the team's summer linked below.
Collin Gillespie's breakout season has positioned him as one of the more intriguing role-player combo-guard UFAs of the offseason. An analysis of his market, valuation, contract comps, and the difficult financial decisions facing the Phoenix Suns.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
From Minimum to Market
A Collin Gillespie UFA Outlook
thecapcrunch.substack.com
June 6, 2026 at 5:15 PM
Collin Gillespie's breakout season has positioned him as one of the more intriguing role-player combo-guard UFAs of the offseason. An analysis of his market, valuation, contract comps, and the difficult financial decisions facing the Phoenix Suns.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
The 76ers faces one of the NBA’s most complex roster-building puzzles. With three Max contracts, limited flexibility, and the emergence of a Maxey-Edgecombe timeline, the franchise must decide what comes next.
A strategic deep dive into the offseason:
A strategic deep dive into the offseason:
Trusting The Process… Again
A Philadelphia 76ers 2026-27 Offseason Outlook
thecapcrunch.substack.com
June 1, 2026 at 1:42 PM
The 76ers faces one of the NBA’s most complex roster-building puzzles. With three Max contracts, limited flexibility, and the emergence of a Maxey-Edgecombe timeline, the franchise must decide what comes next.
A strategic deep dive into the offseason:
A strategic deep dive into the offseason:
A Hard Cap Map: tracking Hard Caps x Team Salary across the NBA during the 2025-26 season
May 27, 2026 at 7:48 PM
A Hard Cap Map: tracking Hard Caps x Team Salary across the NBA during the 2025-26 season
Following a breakout season and a troubling playoffs, the Pistons now faces a complex organizational inflection point involving Jalen Duren’s RFA negotiation.
This analysis examines Duren’s value, potential negotiation dynamics, and what a realistic contract could look like.
This analysis examines Duren’s value, potential negotiation dynamics, and what a realistic contract could look like.
Detroit’s Duren Dilemma
A Jalen Duren RFA Outlook
thecapcrunch.substack.com
May 19, 2026 at 9:31 PM
Following a breakout season and a troubling playoffs, the Pistons now faces a complex organizational inflection point involving Jalen Duren’s RFA negotiation.
This analysis examines Duren’s value, potential negotiation dynamics, and what a realistic contract could look like.
This analysis examines Duren’s value, potential negotiation dynamics, and what a realistic contract could look like.
Reposted by Jonas Plaut
After a breakout season, the Charlotte Hornets enters the offseason with a rising core, flexibility, extension decisions looming, and a critical question to answer: stay patient or accelerate the timeline?
An analysis on the team's strategic and financial outlook:
An analysis on the team's strategic and financial outlook:
The Buzz Around Charlotte
A Charlotte Hornets 2026-27 Offseason Outlook
thecapcrunch.substack.com
May 13, 2026 at 2:13 PM
After a breakout season, the Charlotte Hornets enters the offseason with a rising core, flexibility, extension decisions looming, and a critical question to answer: stay patient or accelerate the timeline?
An analysis on the team's strategic and financial outlook:
An analysis on the team's strategic and financial outlook:
After a breakout season, the Charlotte Hornets enters the offseason with a rising core, flexibility, extension decisions looming, and a critical question to answer: stay patient or accelerate the timeline?
An analysis on the team's strategic and financial outlook:
An analysis on the team's strategic and financial outlook:
The Buzz Around Charlotte
A Charlotte Hornets 2026-27 Offseason Outlook
thecapcrunch.substack.com
May 13, 2026 at 2:13 PM
After a breakout season, the Charlotte Hornets enters the offseason with a rising core, flexibility, extension decisions looming, and a critical question to answer: stay patient or accelerate the timeline?
An analysis on the team's strategic and financial outlook:
An analysis on the team's strategic and financial outlook:
The Portland Trail Blazers are back in the playoffs. What comes next is complicated. With a clean Cap Sheet, a young core led by Deni Avdija, and a unique contract situation looming, Portland faces a defining offseason.
Link to a strategic analysis on the organization's offseason:
Link to a strategic analysis on the organization's offseason:
Defining the Next Step
A Portland Trail Blazers 2026-27 Offseason Outlook
thecapcrunch.substack.com
May 3, 2026 at 3:52 PM
The Portland Trail Blazers are back in the playoffs. What comes next is complicated. With a clean Cap Sheet, a young core led by Deni Avdija, and a unique contract situation looming, Portland faces a defining offseason.
Link to a strategic analysis on the organization's offseason:
Link to a strategic analysis on the organization's offseason:
Dallas has its cornerstone. Now comes the hard part.
With Cooper Flagg ahead of schedule and limited control over its own future drafts, the Mavericks enter a non-traditional rebuild defined by a narrowing margin for error, pressure, and financial flexibility.
Analysis below:
With Cooper Flagg ahead of schedule and limited control over its own future drafts, the Mavericks enter a non-traditional rebuild defined by a narrowing margin for error, pressure, and financial flexibility.
Analysis below:
Planting a Flagg
A Dallas Mavericks 2026-27 Offseason Outlook
thecapcrunch.substack.com
April 25, 2026 at 6:10 PM
Dallas has its cornerstone. Now comes the hard part.
With Cooper Flagg ahead of schedule and limited control over its own future drafts, the Mavericks enter a non-traditional rebuild defined by a narrowing margin for error, pressure, and financial flexibility.
Analysis below:
With Cooper Flagg ahead of schedule and limited control over its own future drafts, the Mavericks enter a non-traditional rebuild defined by a narrowing margin for error, pressure, and financial flexibility.
Analysis below:
Reposted by Jonas Plaut
The NBA’s evolving playstyle has elevated the combo guard from complementary piece to a driver of winning. This analysis explores the rise of the profile, identifies the traits that define their impact, and examines whether the market has fully caught up to their growing importance.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
Combo Guards, Unlocking the Value
Versatility, defense, and spacing: a formula for winning
thecapcrunch.substack.com
April 7, 2026 at 7:24 PM
The NBA’s evolving playstyle has elevated the combo guard from complementary piece to a driver of winning. This analysis explores the rise of the profile, identifies the traits that define their impact, and examines whether the market has fully caught up to their growing importance.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
The NBA’s evolving playstyle has elevated the combo guard from complementary piece to a driver of winning. This analysis explores the rise of the profile, identifies the traits that define their impact, and examines whether the market has fully caught up to their growing importance.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
Combo Guards, Unlocking the Value
Versatility, defense, and spacing: a formula for winning
thecapcrunch.substack.com
April 7, 2026 at 7:24 PM
The NBA’s evolving playstyle has elevated the combo guard from complementary piece to a driver of winning. This analysis explores the rise of the profile, identifies the traits that define their impact, and examines whether the market has fully caught up to their growing importance.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
As the NBA’s financial landscape tightens, option years have grown in importance. This analysis explores their strategic value, how they are deployed across the league, and what their usage reveals about team-building and Front Office philosophy.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
Options Matter
How Optionality Has Become a Core NBA Currency
thecapcrunch.substack.com
March 28, 2026 at 2:09 PM
As the NBA’s financial landscape tightens, option years have grown in importance. This analysis explores their strategic value, how they are deployed across the league, and what their usage reveals about team-building and Front Office philosophy.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
Reposted by Jonas Plaut
The Knicks may face an unusual RFA dilemma with Mohammad Diawara. A rare interaction between the Arenas Provision, Non-Bird rights, and the Luxury Tax could create a scenario with little precedent.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
A Rare Cap Conundrum
The Arenas Rule and the Knicks’ Mo Diawara Dilemma
thecapcrunch.substack.com
March 14, 2026 at 8:34 PM
The Knicks may face an unusual RFA dilemma with Mohammad Diawara. A rare interaction between the Arenas Provision, Non-Bird rights, and the Luxury Tax could create a scenario with little precedent.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
The Knicks may face an unusual RFA dilemma with Mohammad Diawara. A rare interaction between the Arenas Provision, Non-Bird rights, and the Luxury Tax could create a scenario with little precedent.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
A Rare Cap Conundrum
The Arenas Rule and the Knicks’ Mo Diawara Dilemma
thecapcrunch.substack.com
March 14, 2026 at 8:34 PM
The Knicks may face an unusual RFA dilemma with Mohammad Diawara. A rare interaction between the Arenas Provision, Non-Bird rights, and the Luxury Tax could create a scenario with little precedent.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
The post–All-Star and playoff stretch is an evaluation window where performance can carry significant organizational implications. This is true for the Magic and Rockets, whose trajectories may be shaped by what unfolds over the coming weeks.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
The Pressures of the Stretch Run
Teams on the clock
thecapcrunch.substack.com
March 10, 2026 at 12:27 PM
The post–All-Star and playoff stretch is an evaluation window where performance can carry significant organizational implications. This is true for the Magic and Rockets, whose trajectories may be shaped by what unfolds over the coming weeks.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
The post-All-Star and playoff stretch is an evaluation window, where performance can swing contract values by millions. That’s particularly true for Peyton Watson and Jalen Duren, both heading toward RFA with long-term team-building stakes attached.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
The Economics of the Stretch Run
Peyton Watson, Jalen Duren, and the price of development
thecapcrunch.substack.com
March 1, 2026 at 1:58 PM
The post-All-Star and playoff stretch is an evaluation window, where performance can swing contract values by millions. That’s particularly true for Peyton Watson and Jalen Duren, both heading toward RFA with long-term team-building stakes attached.
Analysis below:
Analysis below:
NBA Pre-Agency: where teams such as the Wolves, Wizards, Jazz, and Pacers made offseason-level moves at the Trade Deadline, reshaping rosters, securing Bird Rights, and pulling forward their timelines.
Click the link below for an analysis on this concept:
Click the link below for an analysis on this concept:
Pre-Agency: February is the New July
Overview
thecapcrunch.substack.com
February 20, 2026 at 9:19 PM
NBA Pre-Agency: where teams such as the Wolves, Wizards, Jazz, and Pacers made offseason-level moves at the Trade Deadline, reshaping rosters, securing Bird Rights, and pulling forward their timelines.
Click the link below for an analysis on this concept:
Click the link below for an analysis on this concept:
Automatic Max contracts and massive trade returns were once the norm for NBA Star players. However, under the 2023 CBA, the league’s valuation of certain Stars has fundamentally shifted.
Full breakdown on the rise (and squeezing) of the “Secondary Star” below:
Full breakdown on the rise (and squeezing) of the “Secondary Star” below:
The Secondary Star Cap Squeeze
Caught Between Max Contracts and Market Reality
substack.com
February 10, 2026 at 2:27 PM
Automatic Max contracts and massive trade returns were once the norm for NBA Star players. However, under the 2023 CBA, the league’s valuation of certain Stars has fundamentally shifted.
Full breakdown on the rise (and squeezing) of the “Secondary Star” below:
Full breakdown on the rise (and squeezing) of the “Secondary Star” below:
Been working on this outlook with @jonathanmacri.bsky.social
for the Knicks Film School Substack over the last few weeks! If you want to give it a read, click the links in the messages below!
Overview
thecapcrunch.substack.com/p/a-new-york...
for the Knicks Film School Substack over the last few weeks! If you want to give it a read, click the links in the messages below!
Overview
thecapcrunch.substack.com/p/a-new-york...
A New York Knicks 2025-26 Trade Deadline Outlook, Part 1
A Cap Crunch and Knicks Film School Collab
thecapcrunch.substack.com
January 30, 2026 at 9:29 PM
Been working on this outlook with @jonathanmacri.bsky.social
for the Knicks Film School Substack over the last few weeks! If you want to give it a read, click the links in the messages below!
Overview
thecapcrunch.substack.com/p/a-new-york...
for the Knicks Film School Substack over the last few weeks! If you want to give it a read, click the links in the messages below!
Overview
thecapcrunch.substack.com/p/a-new-york...