The Climate Brink
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The Choice is Ours: Climate Disaster or a Sustainable Future
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This is an automated Substack Account of https://theclimatebrink.substack.com
Discover more/Create at: @skystack.xyz
The Atmosphere Just Set a Water Vapor Record • More water vapor means more rocket fuel for extreme rain — so this record is not good news
The Atmosphere Just Set a Water Vapor Record
More water vapor means more rocket fuel for extreme rain — so this record is not good news
www.theclimatebrink.com
September 14, 2026 at 5:52 PM
The Atmosphere Just Set a Water Vapor Record • More water vapor means more rocket fuel for extreme rain — so this record is not good news
The Worst Case Is Still on the Table • Why removing RCP8.5 from the National Climate Assessment would be a serious mistake
The Worst Case Is Still on the Table
Why removing RCP8.5 from the National Climate Assessment would be a serious mistake
www.theclimatebrink.com
September 4, 2026 at 8:52 PM
The Worst Case Is Still on the Table • Why removing RCP8.5 from the National Climate Assessment would be a serious mistake
What we can and cannot say about climate change and the Nepal disaster • Formal attribution is premature, but the collapse happened on a rapidly warming mountain in a valley losing its ice
What we can and cannot say about climate change and the Nepal disaster
Formal attribution is premature, but the collapse happened on a rapidly warming mountain in a valley losing its ice
www.theclimatebrink.com
August 28, 2026 at 8:53 PM
What we can and cannot say about climate change and the Nepal disaster • Formal attribution is premature, but the collapse happened on a rapidly warming mountain in a valley losing its ice
Is this El Niño a glimpse of a future, hotter Earth? • There are important differences between long-term global warming and El Niño warming
Is this El Niño a glimpse of a future, hotter Earth?
There are important differences between long-term global warming and El Niño warming
www.theclimatebrink.com
August 17, 2026 at 5:52 PM
Is this El Niño a glimpse of a future, hotter Earth? • There are important differences between long-term global warming and El Niño warming
♫ Smoke Gets in Your Eyes ♫ • and your lungs, your blood stream, your brain, just about everywhere
♫ Smoke Gets in Your Eyes ♫
and your lungs, your blood stream, your brain, just about everywhere
www.theclimatebrink.com
August 12, 2026 at 5:52 PM
♫ Smoke Gets in Your Eyes ♫ • and your lungs, your blood stream, your brain, just about everywhere
The real energy use of agentic AI • Agents use about 600x more energy than simple AI prompts
The real energy use of agentic AI
Agents use about 600x more energy than simple AI prompts
www.theclimatebrink.com
August 5, 2026 at 5:51 PM
The real energy use of agentic AI • Agents use about 600x more energy than simple AI prompts
Fixing one of climate’s worst plots • the 1930s were hot over the U.S. Midwest, but not that hot
Fixing one of climate’s worst plots
the 1930s were hot over the U.S. Midwest, but not that hot
www.theclimatebrink.com
August 3, 2026 at 5:52 PM
Fixing one of climate’s worst plots • the 1930s were hot over the U.S. Midwest, but not that hot
Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026 • Whether 2026 sets a new record is increasingly likely to be a split decision between different groups
Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026
Whether 2026 sets a new record is increasingly likely to be a split decision between different groups
www.theclimatebrink.com
July 30, 2026 at 5:53 PM
Why Hansen may end up being right about 2026 • Whether 2026 sets a new record is increasingly likely to be a split decision between different groups
Wildfires are remaking the world • With great sorrow, we watch as the Earth is rebuilt into a different, warmer planet.
Wildfires are remaking the world
With great sorrow, we watch as the Earth is rebuilt into a different, warmer planet.
www.theclimatebrink.com
July 29, 2026 at 5:52 PM
Wildfires are remaking the world • With great sorrow, we watch as the Earth is rebuilt into a different, warmer planet.
Raw Data, Wrong Answers • What happens to the 1930s temperature record after correcting measurement biases and station coverage
Raw Data, Wrong Answers
What happens to the 1930s temperature record after correcting measurement biases and station coverage
www.theclimatebrink.com
July 27, 2026 at 5:52 PM
Raw Data, Wrong Answers • What happens to the 1930s temperature record after correcting measurement biases and station coverage
Hot days, cold thermometers • Why a viral graph on US days above 95F is misleading and overstates regional warmth
Hot days, cold thermometers
Why a viral graph on US days above 95F is misleading and overstates regional warmth
www.theclimatebrink.com
July 23, 2026 at 12:05 PM
Hot days, cold thermometers • Why a viral graph on US days above 95F is misleading and overstates regional warmth
Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management • Higher fire season temperatures are strongly correlated with increased area burned
Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management
Higher fire season temperatures are strongly correlated with increased area burned
www.theclimatebrink.com
July 17, 2026 at 3:05 PM
Canada's boreal wildfires aren't just bad forest management • Higher fire season temperatures are strongly correlated with increased area burned
The Strongest El Niño Ever • With all the July runs in, dynamical models give a ~90% chance of a record-setting event
The Strongest El Niño Ever
With all the July runs in, dynamical models give a ~90% chance of a record-setting event
www.theclimatebrink.com
July 13, 2026 at 6:05 PM
The Strongest El Niño Ever • With all the July runs in, dynamical models give a ~90% chance of a record-setting event
What drove the early 20th century warming? • Human activity, natural forcings, and internal variability explain the global temperature rise between 1900 and 1945
What drove the early 20th century warming?
Human activity, natural forcings, and internal variability explain the global temperature rise between 1900 and 1945
www.theclimatebrink.com
July 9, 2026 at 6:04 PM
What drove the early 20th century warming? • Human activity, natural forcings, and internal variability explain the global temperature rise between 1900 and 1945
Deadly heat wave in France shows the future of climate risk • Perhaps the victory lap for getting rid of RCP8.5 was premature
Deadly heat wave in France shows the future of climate risk
Perhaps the victory lap for getting rid of RCP8.5 was premature
www.theclimatebrink.com
July 7, 2026 at 9:04 PM
Deadly heat wave in France shows the future of climate risk • Perhaps the victory lap for getting rid of RCP8.5 was premature
From the archive: Anatomy of a heat wave • Sunny days aren't all they're cracked up to be
From the archive: Anatomy of a heat wave
Sunny days aren't all they're cracked up to be
www.theclimatebrink.com
July 4, 2026 at 6:03 PM
From the archive: Anatomy of a heat wave • Sunny days aren't all they're cracked up to be
How climate change influences extreme weather • How science shows us how warming makes heat waves, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires more likely or more severe — and why this science is becoming a major public-policy battleground.
How climate change influences extreme weather
How science shows us how warming makes heat waves, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires more likely or more severe — and why this science is becoming a major public-policy battleground.
www.theclimatebrink.com
June 30, 2026 at 6:04 PM
How climate change influences extreme weather • How science shows us how warming makes heat waves, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires more likely or more severe — and why this science is becoming a major public-policy battleground.
The Merchants of Doubt are coming for Extreme Event Attribution science • Doubt is still their product
The Merchants of Doubt are coming for Extreme Event Attribution science
Doubt is still their product
www.theclimatebrink.com
June 16, 2026 at 9:02 PM
The Merchants of Doubt are coming for Extreme Event Attribution science • Doubt is still their product
Plateauing CO2 emissions have slowed atmospheric growth • CO2 concentrations have continued to increase – but more slowly than they otherwise would have
Plateauing CO2 emissions have slowed atmospheric growth
CO2 concentrations have continued to increase – but more slowly than they otherwise would have
www.theclimatebrink.com
June 9, 2026 at 6:03 PM
Plateauing CO2 emissions have slowed atmospheric growth • CO2 concentrations have continued to increase – but more slowly than they otherwise would have
How Science Works • a talk I gave on the Climate and Weather Livestream
How Science Works
a talk I gave on the Climate and Weather Livestream
www.theclimatebrink.com
June 2, 2026 at 3:03 PM
How Science Works • a talk I gave on the Climate and Weather Livestream
On the death of RCP8.5 • We should celebrate progress, but not overstate it
On the death of RCP8.5
We should celebrate progress, but not overstate it
www.theclimatebrink.com
May 18, 2026 at 6:02 PM
On the death of RCP8.5 • We should celebrate progress, but not overstate it
Higher warming predictions for 2026 and 2027 • An update to my December estimates of global temperatures over the next two years
Higher warming predictions for 2026 and 2027
An update to my December estimates of global temperatures over the next two years
www.theclimatebrink.com
April 30, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Higher warming predictions for 2026 and 2027 • An update to my December estimates of global temperatures over the next two years
Transition risk: The human cost of net zero • stranded assets and ghost factories
Transition risk: The human cost of net zero
stranded assets and ghost factories
www.theclimatebrink.com
April 23, 2026 at 6:00 PM
Transition risk: The human cost of net zero • stranded assets and ghost factories
We're scientists. We know the climate's changing. And we know why.
We're scientists. We know the climate's changing. And we know why.
www.theclimatebrink.com
April 15, 2026 at 6:00 PM
We're scientists. We know the climate's changing. And we know why.
How many people does heat actually kill? • It depends on how you count it
How many people does heat actually kill?
It depends on how you count it
www.theclimatebrink.com
April 13, 2026 at 5:59 PM
How many people does heat actually kill? • It depends on how you count it