Tom Kellogg
@tom-kellogg.bsky.social
Executive Director, @GeorgetownCAL. China hand, Hong Kong law expert, and Taiwan aficinado. Amateur Dylanologist, cinephile, and biblilophile.
We are at quote-unquote only 13 American service members dead, and quote-unquote only roughly 3,000 Iranians, in this conflict. May it end soon... (6/end)
April 13, 2026 at 5:45 PM
We are at quote-unquote only 13 American service members dead, and quote-unquote only roughly 3,000 Iranians, in this conflict. May it end soon... (6/end)
Back to the Menand piece - the VN tragedy is on another level, of course, with US deaths in the tens of thousands, and VN deaths in the millions. LM's piece does a great job of putting names and faces on that tragedy. (5)
April 13, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Back to the Menand piece - the VN tragedy is on another level, of course, with US deaths in the tens of thousands, and VN deaths in the millions. LM's piece does a great job of putting names and faces on that tragedy. (5)
To be sure, Trump (unlike Johnson and Nixon) might well be fine to declare victory and just leave behind a complete mess. But if he can't declare victory with a closed Strait of Hormuz, is exit truly possible? Not sure. (4)
April 13, 2026 at 5:45 PM
To be sure, Trump (unlike Johnson and Nixon) might well be fine to declare victory and just leave behind a complete mess. But if he can't declare victory with a closed Strait of Hormuz, is exit truly possible? Not sure. (4)
One mentally responds with a quick, curt "no." But the politics (and psychology) of avoiding national humiliation (a key theme of the piece) leads one to ask: how will we extricate ourselves from this war in a way that satisfies Trump's desire for wins? (3)
April 13, 2026 at 5:45 PM
One mentally responds with a quick, curt "no." But the politics (and psychology) of avoiding national humiliation (a key theme of the piece) leads one to ask: how will we extricate ourselves from this war in a way that satisfies Trump's desire for wins? (3)
Even after just a few paragraphs, the parallels with the (otherwise v different, of course) Iran conflict emerge, and a horrific thought strikes: could we actually get bogged down in Iran, for months to come? (2/x)
April 13, 2026 at 5:45 PM
Even after just a few paragraphs, the parallels with the (otherwise v different, of course) Iran conflict emerge, and a horrific thought strikes: could we actually get bogged down in Iran, for months to come? (2/x)
I end with the thought that the end of the national security era will come someday, although it's hard to say exactly when. In the meantime, I fear that the on-the-ground situation in HK will get worse before it gets better - I am not optimistic abt the next 5 years, unfortunately! (4/end)
June 30, 2025 at 8:22 PM
I end with the thought that the end of the national security era will come someday, although it's hard to say exactly when. In the meantime, I fear that the on-the-ground situation in HK will get worse before it gets better - I am not optimistic abt the next 5 years, unfortunately! (4/end)
I try in the piece to suggest some developments we may see in the years to come: look, for example, for the HKG to push for new national security laws to deal with new problems and new targets. (3)
June 30, 2025 at 8:22 PM
I try in the piece to suggest some developments we may see in the years to come: look, for example, for the HKG to push for new national security laws to deal with new problems and new targets. (3)
Without doubt, the NSL has been catastrophic for human rights and the rule of law in HK; it has also dealt a death blow to HK's once-vaunted autonomy. (2)
June 30, 2025 at 8:22 PM
Without doubt, the NSL has been catastrophic for human rights and the rule of law in HK; it has also dealt a death blow to HK's once-vaunted autonomy. (2)
I will be following this case very closely, as will other experts and orgs. The handling of this case will be a key marker of the state of the rule of law in HK - further decline or perhaps (finally) some pushback from the courts? We will have to wait and see... (9/end)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
I will be following this case very closely, as will other experts and orgs. The handling of this case will be a key marker of the state of the rule of law in HK - further decline or perhaps (finally) some pushback from the courts? We will have to wait and see... (9/end)
There could well be consequences for failing to toe the line in this case. But now the courts have no choice - they are being asked to do something truly awful, something so fundamentally beyond the pale. They must say no. If they don't, expect more cases like this in the months to come. (8)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
There could well be consequences for failing to toe the line in this case. But now the courts have no choice - they are being asked to do something truly awful, something so fundamentally beyond the pale. They must say no. If they don't, expect more cases like this in the months to come. (8)
If the HKG moves forward with this prosecution, the courts should finally and unequivocally say no: they should refuse to sign off on this latest distortion of the rule of law, this latest effort to subvert constitutional human rights protections. This is a line that cannot be crossed. (7)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
If the HKG moves forward with this prosecution, the courts should finally and unequivocally say no: they should refuse to sign off on this latest distortion of the rule of law, this latest effort to subvert constitutional human rights protections. This is a line that cannot be crossed. (7)
The charging of Kwok Yin-sang represents a new and deeply troubling development: up to now, no relative of an overseas activist has been charged with a nat sec crime. An important line has been crossed, to the HKG's eternal shame. The parallels with Mainland China are all too clear. (6)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
The charging of Kwok Yin-sang represents a new and deeply troubling development: up to now, no relative of an overseas activist has been charged with a nat sec crime. An important line has been crossed, to the HKG's eternal shame. The parallels with Mainland China are all too clear. (6)
No doubt, the courts are under significant political pressure from the government. But there needs to be a rethink by the courts - can this blank check for the government continue? Human rights protections have been abandoned in nat sec cases, and public confidence in the courts has declined. (5)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
No doubt, the courts are under significant political pressure from the government. But there needs to be a rethink by the courts - can this blank check for the government continue? Human rights protections have been abandoned in nat sec cases, and public confidence in the courts has declined. (5)
The ongoing crackdown has put HK's courts in a difficult spot: how to respond? Thus far at least, the courts have given the HKG (almost) everything it has asked for - the govt has an almost-perfect conviction rate, and a near-perfect record on procedural questions as well. (4)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
The ongoing crackdown has put HK's courts in a difficult spot: how to respond? Thus far at least, the courts have given the HKG (almost) everything it has asked for - the govt has an almost-perfect conviction rate, and a near-perfect record on procedural questions as well. (4)
HK's once free and wide-open civil society has been dramatically reordered, and a robust free press has been put on a very short leash. The once-proud Legislative Council is now a rubber stamp for government initiatives, including new national security laws that further restrict basic rights. (3)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
HK's once free and wide-open civil society has been dramatically reordered, and a robust free press has been put on a very short leash. The once-proud Legislative Council is now a rubber stamp for government initiatives, including new national security laws that further restrict basic rights. (3)
Working closely with @ericyhlai.bsky.social, I have been tracking the implementation of HK's draconian NSL for almost five years now. Since then, nearly three hundred activists, politicians, lawyers, journalists, and everyday citizens have been imprisoned under the law. (2)
May 8, 2025 at 7:48 AM
Working closely with @ericyhlai.bsky.social, I have been tracking the implementation of HK's draconian NSL for almost five years now. Since then, nearly three hundred activists, politicians, lawyers, journalists, and everyday citizens have been imprisoned under the law. (2)
I will also take Lepore's (implicit) advice to check out the Penguin 100 -- had seen them in bookstores before, but had not really given them any serious attention! We all need the consolations of literature (and music, and film, and yes even journalism) these days! (7/end)
April 30, 2025 at 5:59 PM
I will also take Lepore's (implicit) advice to check out the Penguin 100 -- had seen them in bookstores before, but had not really given them any serious attention! We all need the consolations of literature (and music, and film, and yes even journalism) these days! (7/end)
Last but not least, I'm also 100pp into @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social and @dkthomp.bsky.social's Abundance -- really enjoying it. I find it to be an antidote as well - let's have an informed conversation about the problems we face, rather than lots of attacks and corruption and awfulness! (6)
April 30, 2025 at 5:59 PM
Last but not least, I'm also 100pp into @ezrakleinbot.bsky.social and @dkthomp.bsky.social's Abundance -- really enjoying it. I find it to be an antidote as well - let's have an informed conversation about the problems we face, rather than lots of attacks and corruption and awfulness! (6)
For bookish escapism, I read and liked Han Kang's Vegetarian, but its epic brutality made me wonder: is this the literary escape for this moment? I'm not sure, but I'm glad I read it. (5)
April 30, 2025 at 5:59 PM
For bookish escapism, I read and liked Han Kang's Vegetarian, but its epic brutality made me wonder: is this the literary escape for this moment? I'm not sure, but I'm glad I read it. (5)
And don't forget movies, the primary escape mechanism of our time! Summer of Soul is at the top of my re-watch list, as the The Taking of Pelham 123 (1974 version, currently on Criterion).
April 30, 2025 at 5:59 PM
And don't forget movies, the primary escape mechanism of our time! Summer of Soul is at the top of my re-watch list, as the The Taking of Pelham 123 (1974 version, currently on Criterion).
But there's no doubt, we all need the consolations of culture. I recently re-listened to Elijah Wald's masterful Dylan Goes Electric, which took me back for a few days to a different time, and a different place, and a focus on some of the best music ever written and performed. Wonderful solace. (3)
April 30, 2025 at 5:59 PM
But there's no doubt, we all need the consolations of culture. I recently re-listened to Elijah Wald's masterful Dylan Goes Electric, which took me back for a few days to a different time, and a different place, and a focus on some of the best music ever written and performed. Wonderful solace. (3)