Thomas Weinandy
@tomweinandy.bsky.social
PhD Economist @Upside | Researching & speaking on consumer behavior, the economy & industry trends | Ask me about fuel, restaurant & grocery retail
[NEW] US drivers paid an additional $66B in gas since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began.
Relative to the same time in 2025, drivers spend 24% *more* at the pump despite buying 3.5% *fewer* gallons of fuel.
Read my new analysis at www.upside.com/business/ret...
Relative to the same time in 2025, drivers spend 24% *more* at the pump despite buying 3.5% *fewer* gallons of fuel.
Read my new analysis at www.upside.com/business/ret...
September 11, 2026 at 4:48 PM
[NEW] US drivers paid an additional $66B in gas since the Strait of Hormuz crisis began.
Relative to the same time in 2025, drivers spend 24% *more* at the pump despite buying 3.5% *fewer* gallons of fuel.
Read my new analysis at www.upside.com/business/ret...
Relative to the same time in 2025, drivers spend 24% *more* at the pump despite buying 3.5% *fewer* gallons of fuel.
Read my new analysis at www.upside.com/business/ret...
Every 1% rise in gas prices → 0.51% fewer grocery visits, 0.59% less grocery revenue.
Shoppers don't stop shopping when gas spikes. They just quietly buy less, less often. Here's what 3 years of data across 1,000+ stores shows grocers 👇
www.grocerydive.com/news/fuel-pr...
Shoppers don't stop shopping when gas spikes. They just quietly buy less, less often. Here's what 3 years of data across 1,000+ stores shows grocers 👇
www.grocerydive.com/news/fuel-pr...
August 27, 2026 at 2:11 PM
Every 1% rise in gas prices → 0.51% fewer grocery visits, 0.59% less grocery revenue.
Shoppers don't stop shopping when gas spikes. They just quietly buy less, less often. Here's what 3 years of data across 1,000+ stores shows grocers 👇
www.grocerydive.com/news/fuel-pr...
Shoppers don't stop shopping when gas spikes. They just quietly buy less, less often. Here's what 3 years of data across 1,000+ stores shows grocers 👇
www.grocerydive.com/news/fuel-pr...
Behavior change continues both inside the convenience store and at the pump. Just because gas prices are inelastic doesn't mean consumers don't change their habits.
www.upside.com/business/ret...
www.upside.com/business/ret...
May 15, 2026 at 2:51 PM
Behavior change continues both inside the convenience store and at the pump. Just because gas prices are inelastic doesn't mean consumers don't change their habits.
www.upside.com/business/ret...
www.upside.com/business/ret...
My latest research is now live in Upside's new report about the "Loyalty Plateau". It turns out most loyalty members belong to MANY other loyalty programs, spreading out their spend and reducing the program's impact for retailers.
www.upside.com/reports/esca...
www.upside.com/reports/esca...
May 13, 2026 at 2:32 PM
My latest research is now live in Upside's new report about the "Loyalty Plateau". It turns out most loyalty members belong to MANY other loyalty programs, spreading out their spend and reducing the program's impact for retailers.
www.upside.com/reports/esca...
www.upside.com/reports/esca...
May 12, 2026 at 12:20 PM
Consumers, not economist, decide when inflation ends
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
The way we were: Price-level shocks and consumers’ memories
Other
siepr.stanford.edu
May 12, 2026 at 12:13 PM
Consumers, not economist, decide when inflation ends
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
siepr.stanford.edu/publications...
Taxi vs. Uber/Lyft drivers respond very differently to high gas prices.
Rideshare drivers can log off when costs spike. Taxi drivers lease shifts—so once they’re on, they drive no matter the price. Same job, totally different incentives.
Rideshare drivers can log off when costs spike. Taxi drivers lease shifts—so once they’re on, they drive no matter the price. Same job, totally different incentives.
May 5, 2026 at 5:24 PM
Taxi vs. Uber/Lyft drivers respond very differently to high gas prices.
Rideshare drivers can log off when costs spike. Taxi drivers lease shifts—so once they’re on, they drive no matter the price. Same job, totally different incentives.
Rideshare drivers can log off when costs spike. Taxi drivers lease shifts—so once they’re on, they drive no matter the price. Same job, totally different incentives.
Despite the spike in gas prices, U.S. households still aren't driving that much less. I had a great conversation with the FT about the many other ways consumers are shifting behavior due to fuel prices, even as miles driven have gone up since February.
www.ft.com/content/9726...
www.ft.com/content/9726...
April 29, 2026 at 12:16 PM
Despite the spike in gas prices, U.S. households still aren't driving that much less. I had a great conversation with the FT about the many other ways consumers are shifting behavior due to fuel prices, even as miles driven have gone up since February.
www.ft.com/content/9726...
www.ft.com/content/9726...
What a gem from @patcohen.bsky.social & @bencasselman.bsky.social. By my math, 1 fruitcake is roughly equivalent to 5 Scaramuccis. This will be on the test.
April 29, 2026 at 11:58 AM
What a gem from @patcohen.bsky.social & @bencasselman.bsky.social. By my math, 1 fruitcake is roughly equivalent to 5 Scaramuccis. This will be on the test.
Oil’s off April highs, but gas prices haven’t followed. Why? Seasonal forces: higher summer driving demand + pricier summer-blend fuel. Some relief: prices dipped below $4 last week, but real relief likely needs full Strait of Hormuz reopening.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
Oil is down from its early April highs, but gas prices nationally have barely budged. What gives?
While the war in Iran might have been unexpected, there’s another reason that gas prices have been… |...
Oil is down from its early April highs, but gas prices nationally have barely budged. What gives?
While the war in Iran might have been unexpected, there’s another reason that gas prices have been st...
www.linkedin.com
April 27, 2026 at 6:25 PM
Oil’s off April highs, but gas prices haven’t followed. Why? Seasonal forces: higher summer driving demand + pricier summer-blend fuel. Some relief: prices dipped below $4 last week, but real relief likely needs full Strait of Hormuz reopening.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
Quick math: 20–12 = 8.
That’s an 8M barrel/day oil shortfall after Strait closures. The fix? “Demand destruction” — cut use via policy or sky-high prices. Some countries are already there, and the U.S. may be next if this drags on.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
That’s an 8M barrel/day oil shortfall after Strait closures. The fix? “Demand destruction” — cut use via policy or sky-high prices. Some countries are already there, and the U.S. may be next if this drags on.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
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April 17, 2026 at 12:05 PM
Quick math: 20–12 = 8.
That’s an 8M barrel/day oil shortfall after Strait closures. The fix? “Demand destruction” — cut use via policy or sky-high prices. Some countries are already there, and the U.S. may be next if this drags on.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
That’s an 8M barrel/day oil shortfall after Strait closures. The fix? “Demand destruction” — cut use via policy or sky-high prices. Some countries are already there, and the U.S. may be next if this drags on.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
My March Fuel Trends recap is live: 20K+ U.S. stations/c-stores, full view of Iran-war price impacts, and a key consumer shift—transactions are up, but premium/midgrade buyers are trading down to regular. www.upside.com/business/ret...
April 10, 2026 at 12:17 AM
My March Fuel Trends recap is live: 20K+ U.S. stations/c-stores, full view of Iran-war price impacts, and a key consumer shift—transactions are up, but premium/midgrade buyers are trading down to regular. www.upside.com/business/ret...
It's all retailers, not just gas stations, affected by rising gas prices. When gas prices increase, customers make up 80-100% of that lost money by cutting back in non-fuel discretionary spending.
www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/how-gl...
www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/how-gl...
How global events are shaping U.S. fuel prices: Insights from Dr. Thomas Weinandy
Upside’s principal research economist discusses oil market disruptions, consumer behavior at the pump and inside c-stores
www.cspdailynews.com
April 7, 2026 at 6:15 PM
It's all retailers, not just gas stations, affected by rising gas prices. When gas prices increase, customers make up 80-100% of that lost money by cutting back in non-fuel discretionary spending.
www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/how-gl...
www.cspdailynews.com/fuels/how-gl...
Gas prices are high—but likely still lower than a pure supply shock would imply. Why? Markets are pricing in a relatively short war and eventual supply recovery. If that changes, gas could climb a lot more. Video for the breakdown.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
Hot take: gas prices are actually LOWER than they should be.
That’s right. They’ve skyrocketed, and yet they should probably be higher.
I know it sounds crazy, but it’s hard to overstate the size… |...
Hot take: gas prices are actually LOWER than they should be.
That’s right. They’ve skyrocketed, and yet they should probably be higher.
I know it sounds crazy, but it’s hard to overstate the size of...
www.linkedin.com
April 7, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Gas prices are high—but likely still lower than a pure supply shock would imply. Why? Markets are pricing in a relatively short war and eventual supply recovery. If that changes, gas could climb a lot more. Video for the breakdown.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
High gas prices can squeeze food budgets, but so far we’re not seeing a big pullback in spending. Upside data show c-store demand dipped briefly, then rebounded. The bigger risk may be ahead: higher fuel and fertilizer costs could pressure prices and retailers.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
I’m tracking how high gas prices are impacting food purchases.
The answer? Not all that much. At least not yet.
Even though fuel and food are two distinct categories, they’re intrinsically… | Thomas...
I’m tracking how high gas prices are impacting food purchases.
The answer? Not all that much. At least not yet.
Even though fuel and food are two distinct categories, they’re intrinsically connected...
www.linkedin.com
April 4, 2026 at 12:58 PM
High gas prices can squeeze food budgets, but so far we’re not seeing a big pullback in spending. Upside data show c-store demand dipped briefly, then rebounded. The bigger risk may be ahead: higher fuel and fertilizer costs could pressure prices and retailers.
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
www.linkedin.com/posts/tomwei...
Gas is above $4, and that changes behavior fast. People may not buy much less gas, but they’ll buy differently: smaller fill-ups, more price shopping, more loyalty use, and tighter budgets elsewhere. I break it down here: upside.com/strait-of-hormuz
April 1, 2026 at 1:46 PM
Gas is above $4, and that changes behavior fast. People may not buy much less gas, but they’ll buy differently: smaller fill-ups, more price shopping, more loyalty use, and tighter budgets elsewhere. I break it down here: upside.com/strait-of-hormuz
It's official: a regular gallon of gasoline in the US now costs over $4. My recent video explaining how this is going to affect consumer behavior is ways you might now expect is now featured by LinkedIn News. www.linkedin.com/news/story/g...
Gas prices top $4 in US for first time since 2022 | LinkedIn
According to AAA, the average gallon now costs $4.018, its highest level since the first months of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
www.linkedin.com
March 31, 2026 at 12:05 PM
It's official: a regular gallon of gasoline in the US now costs over $4. My recent video explaining how this is going to affect consumer behavior is ways you might now expect is now featured by LinkedIn News. www.linkedin.com/news/story/g...
Reposted by Thomas Weinandy
BREAKING: $4 is back. The national average has just reached $4/gal according to GasBuddy, the highest since August 8, 2022. The rise is now the largest monthly increase GasBuddy has ever recorded: $1.059/gal for gasoline, $1.701/gal for diesel.
March 31, 2026 at 12:30 AM
BREAKING: $4 is back. The national average has just reached $4/gal according to GasBuddy, the highest since August 8, 2022. The rise is now the largest monthly increase GasBuddy has ever recorded: $1.059/gal for gasoline, $1.701/gal for diesel.
I track fuel demand for a living. One surprise: even when gas prices spike, drivers usually do not cut back much. Fuel demand is highly inelastic, so instead of driving less, people tend to adjust how and when they fill up.
March 30, 2026 at 10:59 AM
I track fuel demand for a living. One surprise: even when gas prices spike, drivers usually do not cut back much. Fuel demand is highly inelastic, so instead of driving less, people tend to adjust how and when they fill up.
Diesel is hurting truckers even more than drivers. Why’s it rising faster than gas? The diesel market was tighter when the war began. And because diesel powers freight, farming, and shipping, higher costs could ripple through to consumer prices.
March 26, 2026 at 6:47 PM
Diesel is hurting truckers even more than drivers. Why’s it rising faster than gas? The diesel market was tighter when the war began. And because diesel powers freight, farming, and shipping, higher costs could ripple through to consumer prices.
Reposted by Thomas Weinandy
Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases may help a little, but they won’t solve this crisis. The IEA’s 400M-barrel release equals only a few days of global oil supply, and U.S. barrels will be released gradually. Real relief at the pump depends on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
March 24, 2026 at 6:41 PM
Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases may help a little, but they won’t solve this crisis. The IEA’s 400M-barrel release equals only a few days of global oil supply, and U.S. barrels will be released gradually. Real relief at the pump depends on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
@emilypeck.bsky.social Here's a "number of the week" for you if I've ever heard one! Courtesy of new research published by the NBER: www.nber.org/system/files...
March 22, 2026 at 11:40 PM
@emilypeck.bsky.social Here's a "number of the week" for you if I've ever heard one! Courtesy of new research published by the NBER: www.nber.org/system/files...
Regular gas prices are rough right now, but the other bad news is how higher diesel costs seep into the costs of everyday goods. This can take time to appear, but as it does, we'll all be paying for it.
Read the full story from Scripps: www.scrippsnews.com/politics/eco...
Read the full story from Scripps: www.scrippsnews.com/politics/eco...
March 22, 2026 at 7:04 PM
Regular gas prices are rough right now, but the other bad news is how higher diesel costs seep into the costs of everyday goods. This can take time to appear, but as it does, we'll all be paying for it.
Read the full story from Scripps: www.scrippsnews.com/politics/eco...
Read the full story from Scripps: www.scrippsnews.com/politics/eco...