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📊 Daily Macro — Update 2 — Sep 17, 2026
📈 The breakout follows the breakdown: after yesterday's initially negative reaction to the Fed meeting, Wall Street is rallying Thursday. Relief today comes mainly from oil and Treasury yields, both Brent and WTI falling, 10-year yields dipping just under 5%.
📈 The breakout follows the breakdown: after yesterday's initially negative reaction to the Fed meeting, Wall Street is rallying Thursday. Relief today comes mainly from oil and Treasury yields, both Brent and WTI falling, 10-year yields dipping just under 5%.
September 17, 2026 at 1:17 PM
📊 Daily Macro — Update 2 — Sep 17, 2026
📈 The breakout follows the breakdown: after yesterday's initially negative reaction to the Fed meeting, Wall Street is rallying Thursday. Relief today comes mainly from oil and Treasury yields, both Brent and WTI falling, 10-year yields dipping just under 5%.
📈 The breakout follows the breakdown: after yesterday's initially negative reaction to the Fed meeting, Wall Street is rallying Thursday. Relief today comes mainly from oil and Treasury yields, both Brent and WTI falling, 10-year yields dipping just under 5%.
📊 $US500 Update
📈 US500 hit the 7500 put wall exactly, then bounced right back up like clockwork, now trading at 7646 (+1.28%), strong pre-market rally.
🎯 Next levels above: 7660, then 7750. Choppy, range-bound market conditions right now.
📈 US500 hit the 7500 put wall exactly, then bounced right back up like clockwork, now trading at 7646 (+1.28%), strong pre-market rally.
🎯 Next levels above: 7660, then 7750. Choppy, range-bound market conditions right now.
September 17, 2026 at 12:54 PM
📊 $US500 Update
📈 US500 hit the 7500 put wall exactly, then bounced right back up like clockwork, now trading at 7646 (+1.28%), strong pre-market rally.
🎯 Next levels above: 7660, then 7750. Choppy, range-bound market conditions right now.
📈 US500 hit the 7500 put wall exactly, then bounced right back up like clockwork, now trading at 7646 (+1.28%), strong pre-market rally.
🎯 Next levels above: 7660, then 7750. Choppy, range-bound market conditions right now.
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 17, 2026 (Part 2)
September 17, 2026 at 5:15 AM
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 17, 2026 (Part 2)
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 17, 2026 (Part 1)
🏦 The Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote, surprising given recent dissent chatter. Chair Warsh cited persistently high inflation, a strong economy/labor market, and Middle East tensions as the reasons.
🏦 The Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote, surprising given recent dissent chatter. Chair Warsh cited persistently high inflation, a strong economy/labor market, and Middle East tensions as the reasons.
September 17, 2026 at 5:14 AM
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 17, 2026 (Part 1)
🏦 The Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote, surprising given recent dissent chatter. Chair Warsh cited persistently high inflation, a strong economy/labor market, and Middle East tensions as the reasons.
🏦 The Fed raised rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the first hike since 2023, in a unanimous 12-0 vote, surprising given recent dissent chatter. Chair Warsh cited persistently high inflation, a strong economy/labor market, and Middle East tensions as the reasons.
🚨 FED TURNS HAWKISH
The Fed raised interest rates by 25bps to 3.75–4.00%, exactly as expected.
But the bigger message came from the communication: inflation remains too high and has not shown enough improvement. Price stability clearly remains the Fed’s priority.
The Fed raised interest rates by 25bps to 3.75–4.00%, exactly as expected.
But the bigger message came from the communication: inflation remains too high and has not shown enough improvement. Price stability clearly remains the Fed’s priority.
September 16, 2026 at 7:28 PM
🚨 FED TURNS HAWKISH
The Fed raised interest rates by 25bps to 3.75–4.00%, exactly as expected.
But the bigger message came from the communication: inflation remains too high and has not shown enough improvement. Price stability clearly remains the Fed’s priority.
The Fed raised interest rates by 25bps to 3.75–4.00%, exactly as expected.
But the bigger message came from the communication: inflation remains too high and has not shown enough improvement. Price stability clearly remains the Fed’s priority.
📉 QQQ / US100 — Final Support Test
Rates were raised as expected. Another hike may follow.
QQQ is now sitting at the final major support: 700.
⚠️ Lose 700 → 660 becomes the next key level.
And Friday is Triple Witching / OpEx — expect volatility. 🔥
#QQQ #US100 #Nasdaq #Trading
Rates were raised as expected. Another hike may follow.
QQQ is now sitting at the final major support: 700.
⚠️ Lose 700 → 660 becomes the next key level.
And Friday is Triple Witching / OpEx — expect volatility. 🔥
#QQQ #US100 #Nasdaq #Trading
September 16, 2026 at 7:20 PM
📉 QQQ / US100 — Final Support Test
Rates were raised as expected. Another hike may follow.
QQQ is now sitting at the final major support: 700.
⚠️ Lose 700 → 660 becomes the next key level.
And Friday is Triple Witching / OpEx — expect volatility. 🔥
#QQQ #US100 #Nasdaq #Trading
Rates were raised as expected. Another hike may follow.
QQQ is now sitting at the final major support: 700.
⚠️ Lose 700 → 660 becomes the next key level.
And Friday is Triple Witching / OpEx — expect volatility. 🔥
#QQQ #US100 #Nasdaq #Trading
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 16, 2026
September 16, 2026 at 11:10 AM
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 16, 2026
Breakdown of Silver 5RR long, educational only, no trading advice:
I didn't buy the first touch of support. I waited for the bounce to confirm, then entered on the pullback.
🎯 Entry 62.98, the 0.5 fib of the up move. That fib level sits on the support line, so two levels back the same spot.
I didn't buy the first touch of support. I waited for the bounce to confirm, then entered on the pullback.
🎯 Entry 62.98, the 0.5 fib of the up move. That fib level sits on the support line, so two levels back the same spot.
September 16, 2026 at 7:40 AM
Breakdown of Silver 5RR long, educational only, no trading advice:
I didn't buy the first touch of support. I waited for the bounce to confirm, then entered on the pullback.
🎯 Entry 62.98, the 0.5 fib of the up move. That fib level sits on the support line, so two levels back the same spot.
I didn't buy the first touch of support. I waited for the bounce to confirm, then entered on the pullback.
🎯 Entry 62.98, the 0.5 fib of the up move. That fib level sits on the support line, so two levels back the same spot.
📊 $CQQQ Dark Pool Alert
🔍 CQQQ (Invesco China Technology ETF) trading at $46.15 (-0.35%), one of the largest dark pool transactions ever recorded hit yesterday, right at a key level (~$45 support zone, marked #2/#3 on the chart, roughly $140M in size).
🔍 CQQQ (Invesco China Technology ETF) trading at $46.15 (-0.35%), one of the largest dark pool transactions ever recorded hit yesterday, right at a key level (~$45 support zone, marked #2/#3 on the chart, roughly $140M in size).
September 15, 2026 at 6:16 PM
📊 $CQQQ Dark Pool Alert
🔍 CQQQ (Invesco China Technology ETF) trading at $46.15 (-0.35%), one of the largest dark pool transactions ever recorded hit yesterday, right at a key level (~$45 support zone, marked #2/#3 on the chart, roughly $140M in size).
🔍 CQQQ (Invesco China Technology ETF) trading at $46.15 (-0.35%), one of the largest dark pool transactions ever recorded hit yesterday, right at a key level (~$45 support zone, marked #2/#3 on the chart, roughly $140M in size).
📊 DAILY MACRO — SEP 16, 2026
🚨 THE MARKET IS LOOKING FRAGILE
🏦 Fed: 92.5% hike odds
📈 US 10Y: >5%
🛢️ Oil: Brent ~$107
🏠 Mortgage rates: 7.1–7.2%
📉 Breadth: only ~40% above 50DMA
The Fed hike is largely priced in.
The real risk is the message.
🚨 THE MARKET IS LOOKING FRAGILE
🏦 Fed: 92.5% hike odds
📈 US 10Y: >5%
🛢️ Oil: Brent ~$107
🏠 Mortgage rates: 7.1–7.2%
📉 Breadth: only ~40% above 50DMA
The Fed hike is largely priced in.
The real risk is the message.
September 15, 2026 at 5:18 PM
📊 DAILY MACRO — SEP 16, 2026
🚨 THE MARKET IS LOOKING FRAGILE
🏦 Fed: 92.5% hike odds
📈 US 10Y: >5%
🛢️ Oil: Brent ~$107
🏠 Mortgage rates: 7.1–7.2%
📉 Breadth: only ~40% above 50DMA
The Fed hike is largely priced in.
The real risk is the message.
🚨 THE MARKET IS LOOKING FRAGILE
🏦 Fed: 92.5% hike odds
📈 US 10Y: >5%
🛢️ Oil: Brent ~$107
🏠 Mortgage rates: 7.1–7.2%
📉 Breadth: only ~40% above 50DMA
The Fed hike is largely priced in.
The real risk is the message.
📊 Inflation Expectations vs. Commodity Producers — Sep 15, 2026
📈 MSCI World Commodity Producers index (red line) has surged to 8,113.76, a fresh multi-year high, well above its long-term downtrend line.
📈 MSCI World Commodity Producers index (red line) has surged to 8,113.76, a fresh multi-year high, well above its long-term downtrend line.
September 15, 2026 at 4:05 PM
📊 Inflation Expectations vs. Commodity Producers — Sep 15, 2026
📈 MSCI World Commodity Producers index (red line) has surged to 8,113.76, a fresh multi-year high, well above its long-term downtrend line.
📈 MSCI World Commodity Producers index (red line) has surged to 8,113.76, a fresh multi-year high, well above its long-term downtrend line.
📊 Middle East Oil Chokepoints — Sep 15, 2026
September 15, 2026 at 11:30 AM
📊 Middle East Oil Chokepoints — Sep 15, 2026
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 15, 2026
🏦 Fed rate hike odds now at 92.5% for the decision in the next 48 hours. The FOMC statement (2:30pm ET) is seen as the key driver this week, a hold at this point could hurt Fed credibility. Heavy options expiration this week raises the stakes further.
🏦 Fed rate hike odds now at 92.5% for the decision in the next 48 hours. The FOMC statement (2:30pm ET) is seen as the key driver this week, a hold at this point could hurt Fed credibility. Heavy options expiration this week raises the stakes further.
September 15, 2026 at 5:15 AM
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 15, 2026
🏦 Fed rate hike odds now at 92.5% for the decision in the next 48 hours. The FOMC statement (2:30pm ET) is seen as the key driver this week, a hold at this point could hurt Fed credibility. Heavy options expiration this week raises the stakes further.
🏦 Fed rate hike odds now at 92.5% for the decision in the next 48 hours. The FOMC statement (2:30pm ET) is seen as the key driver this week, a hold at this point could hurt Fed credibility. Heavy options expiration this week raises the stakes further.
📊 AI Warnings & Market Levels — Sep 14, 2026
🚨 Musk, Amodei, and Altman jointly warned over the weekend about AI development risks and potential superintelligence, weighing on markets, Nasdaq 100 futures indicated ~1% weaker for Monday's open at time of the original commentary.
🚨 Musk, Amodei, and Altman jointly warned over the weekend about AI development risks and potential superintelligence, weighing on markets, Nasdaq 100 futures indicated ~1% weaker for Monday's open at time of the original commentary.
September 14, 2026 at 4:51 PM
📊 AI Warnings & Market Levels — Sep 14, 2026
🚨 Musk, Amodei, and Altman jointly warned over the weekend about AI development risks and potential superintelligence, weighing on markets, Nasdaq 100 futures indicated ~1% weaker for Monday's open at time of the original commentary.
🚨 Musk, Amodei, and Altman jointly warned over the weekend about AI development risks and potential superintelligence, weighing on markets, Nasdaq 100 futures indicated ~1% weaker for Monday's open at time of the original commentary.
📊 Daily Macro — Update 2 — Sep 14, 2026
🛢️ Expensive oil and doubts about the AI capex boom are weighing on Wall Street. Nasdaq futures down ~1.6%, Brent near $108.
🛢️ Expensive oil and doubts about the AI capex boom are weighing on Wall Street. Nasdaq futures down ~1.6%, Brent near $108.
September 14, 2026 at 1:27 PM
📊 Daily Macro — Update 2 — Sep 14, 2026
🛢️ Expensive oil and doubts about the AI capex boom are weighing on Wall Street. Nasdaq futures down ~1.6%, Brent near $108.
🛢️ Expensive oil and doubts about the AI capex boom are weighing on Wall Street. Nasdaq futures down ~1.6%, Brent near $108.
📊 $US100 (QQQ) Update
📉 QQQ trading at 703.24 pre-market (-1.5%), pulling back close to Put Support (700), hit hardest this morning following the AI industry warnings from Anthropic and others (see earlier macro post).
📉 QQQ trading at 703.24 pre-market (-1.5%), pulling back close to Put Support (700), hit hardest this morning following the AI industry warnings from Anthropic and others (see earlier macro post).
September 14, 2026 at 12:54 PM
📊 $US100 (QQQ) Update
📉 QQQ trading at 703.24 pre-market (-1.5%), pulling back close to Put Support (700), hit hardest this morning following the AI industry warnings from Anthropic and others (see earlier macro post).
📉 QQQ trading at 703.24 pre-market (-1.5%), pulling back close to Put Support (700), hit hardest this morning following the AI industry warnings from Anthropic and others (see earlier macro post).
📊 $US500 Update
📉 US500 trading at 7606.71 (-0.63%), showing short-term weakness after rejecting the Call Resistance zone (7749-7800).
🎯 Key options levels this week: 7500-7800 range. Support below at Put Support 7600 and 7500.
📉 US500 trading at 7606.71 (-0.63%), showing short-term weakness after rejecting the Call Resistance zone (7749-7800).
🎯 Key options levels this week: 7500-7800 range. Support below at Put Support 7600 and 7500.
September 14, 2026 at 12:04 PM
📊 $US500 Update
📉 US500 trading at 7606.71 (-0.63%), showing short-term weakness after rejecting the Call Resistance zone (7749-7800).
🎯 Key options levels this week: 7500-7800 range. Support below at Put Support 7600 and 7500.
📉 US500 trading at 7606.71 (-0.63%), showing short-term weakness after rejecting the Call Resistance zone (7749-7800).
🎯 Key options levels this week: 7500-7800 range. Support below at Put Support 7600 and 7500.
📊 AI Regulation Push — Sep 14, 2026
📄 Anthropic's Dario Amodei published a ~3,800-word essay Saturday ("We Must Pace the Frontier"), arguing the industry should slow the pace of model capability improvements, with Anthropic committing to permanent independent oversight.
📄 Anthropic's Dario Amodei published a ~3,800-word essay Saturday ("We Must Pace the Frontier"), arguing the industry should slow the pace of model capability improvements, with Anthropic committing to permanent independent oversight.
September 14, 2026 at 6:21 AM
📊 AI Regulation Push — Sep 14, 2026
📄 Anthropic's Dario Amodei published a ~3,800-word essay Saturday ("We Must Pace the Frontier"), arguing the industry should slow the pace of model capability improvements, with Anthropic committing to permanent independent oversight.
📄 Anthropic's Dario Amodei published a ~3,800-word essay Saturday ("We Must Pace the Frontier"), arguing the industry should slow the pace of model capability improvements, with Anthropic committing to permanent independent oversight.
📊 Technicals: S&P 500 facing major options resistance at 7,750, with a lower-highs pattern some bears are watching. Nasdaq (QQQ) has a strong call resistance zone between 720-730. Notably, semiconductors and energy stocks both rallied the same week.
September 13, 2026 at 8:57 AM
📊 Technicals: S&P 500 facing major options resistance at 7,750, with a lower-highs pattern some bears are watching. Nasdaq (QQQ) has a strong call resistance zone between 720-730. Notably, semiconductors and energy stocks both rallied the same week.
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 13, 2026
🎙️ AI founder warnings & strategic moves: Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Dario Amodei have nearly simultaneously warned that AI could become dangerous.
🎙️ AI founder warnings & strategic moves: Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Dario Amodei have nearly simultaneously warned that AI could become dangerous.
September 13, 2026 at 8:53 AM
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 13, 2026
🎙️ AI founder warnings & strategic moves: Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Dario Amodei have nearly simultaneously warned that AI could become dangerous.
🎙️ AI founder warnings & strategic moves: Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Dario Amodei have nearly simultaneously warned that AI could become dangerous.
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 12, 2026
🚨 Core concern: while the AI-driven stock market keeps hitting new highs, credit markets are flashing warnings. Big tech (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle) has directly raised ~$500B for AI spending.
🚨 Core concern: while the AI-driven stock market keeps hitting new highs, credit markets are flashing warnings. Big tech (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle) has directly raised ~$500B for AI spending.
September 12, 2026 at 5:20 PM
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 12, 2026
🚨 Core concern: while the AI-driven stock market keeps hitting new highs, credit markets are flashing warnings. Big tech (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle) has directly raised ~$500B for AI spending.
🚨 Core concern: while the AI-driven stock market keeps hitting new highs, credit markets are flashing warnings. Big tech (Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Oracle) has directly raised ~$500B for AI spending.
📊 A Bullish Read Despite High Rates — Sep 12, 2026
September 12, 2026 at 3:52 PM
📊 A Bullish Read Despite High Rates — Sep 12, 2026
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 11, 2026
🏦 Hotter core CPI locks in a Fed rate hike next week, with the probability of a second hike in December now surging past 80%. While US headline inflation for August landed in line with expectations, the underlying trend is concerning.
🏦 Hotter core CPI locks in a Fed rate hike next week, with the probability of a second hike in December now surging past 80%. While US headline inflation for August landed in line with expectations, the underlying trend is concerning.
September 11, 2026 at 1:22 PM
📊 Daily Macro — Sep 11, 2026
🏦 Hotter core CPI locks in a Fed rate hike next week, with the probability of a second hike in December now surging past 80%. While US headline inflation for August landed in line with expectations, the underlying trend is concerning.
🏦 Hotter core CPI locks in a Fed rate hike next week, with the probability of a second hike in December now surging past 80%. While US headline inflation for August landed in line with expectations, the underlying trend is concerning.
📊 Headline CPI held steady at 3.4% year-over-year, unchanged from July. Month-over-month, the CPI rose 0.4%, up from a 0.1% increase in July.
🍎 Food index up 0.1% MoM, 2.7% YoY. Energy index jumped 2.1% MoM and is now up 16.3% YoY, with gasoline prices climbing 3.9% for the month.
🍎 Food index up 0.1% MoM, 2.7% YoY. Energy index jumped 2.1% MoM and is now up 16.3% YoY, with gasoline prices climbing 3.9% for the month.
September 11, 2026 at 12:49 PM
📊 Headline CPI held steady at 3.4% year-over-year, unchanged from July. Month-over-month, the CPI rose 0.4%, up from a 0.1% increase in July.
🍎 Food index up 0.1% MoM, 2.7% YoY. Energy index jumped 2.1% MoM and is now up 16.3% YoY, with gasoline prices climbing 3.9% for the month.
🍎 Food index up 0.1% MoM, 2.7% YoY. Energy index jumped 2.1% MoM and is now up 16.3% YoY, with gasoline prices climbing 3.9% for the month.
📈 US500 trading at 7633.62 (+0.50%), holding above 7600 support right into today's CPI release, due shortly before the US Open.
🎯 Key level: if 7600 breaks, price action likely falls back into the range, with a retest of 7500 probable.
🎯 Key level: if 7600 breaks, price action likely falls back into the range, with a retest of 7500 probable.
September 11, 2026 at 11:59 AM
📈 US500 trading at 7633.62 (+0.50%), holding above 7600 support right into today's CPI release, due shortly before the US Open.
🎯 Key level: if 7600 breaks, price action likely falls back into the range, with a retest of 7500 probable.
🎯 Key level: if 7600 breaks, price action likely falls back into the range, with a retest of 7500 probable.