Zaur Shiriyev
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social
Nonresident scholar @carnegieendowment.org Senior Associate Research Fellow at ISPI. Scholar-practitioner on the Caucasus & Türkiye; energy & regional security. Literature & nonfiction enthusiast, no hierarchy.
The harder test may come after Armenia’s June 7 election.
My new commentary for Carnegie Emissary looks at why the vote matters beyond domestic politics and what can be done next.
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
My new commentary for Carnegie Emissary looks at why the vote matters beyond domestic politics and what can be done next.
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
At Stake in Armenia’s Election: Peace and Russian Influence
Regardless of the outcome, there’s another path to ensuring that progress doesn’t stall.
carnegieendowment.org
May 29, 2026 at 2:42 PM
The harder test may come after Armenia’s June 7 election.
My new commentary for Carnegie Emissary looks at why the vote matters beyond domestic politics and what can be done next.
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
My new commentary for Carnegie Emissary looks at why the vote matters beyond domestic politics and what can be done next.
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
🆕 | The U.S.-sponsored TRIPP deal is driving the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.
But hurdles remain before connectivity & economic interdependence can open up the South Caucasus, argue @tomdewaal.bsky.social, Areg Kochinyan, and @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/resea...
But hurdles remain before connectivity & economic interdependence can open up the South Caucasus, argue @tomdewaal.bsky.social, Areg Kochinyan, and @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/resea...
Rewiring the South Caucasus: TRIPP and the New Geopolitics of Connectivity
The U.S.-sponsored TRIPP deal is driving the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process forward. But foreign and domestic hurdles remain before connectivity and economic interdependence can open up the South Ca...
carnegieendowment.org
April 1, 2026 at 3:00 PM
🆕 | The U.S.-sponsored TRIPP deal is driving the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace process.
But hurdles remain before connectivity & economic interdependence can open up the South Caucasus, argue @tomdewaal.bsky.social, Areg Kochinyan, and @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/resea...
But hurdles remain before connectivity & economic interdependence can open up the South Caucasus, argue @tomdewaal.bsky.social, Areg Kochinyan, and @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/resea...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
The war in Iran, now in its third week, has had serious regional consequences. That puts Armenia and Azerbaijan “on the front line of regional instability,” writes Zaur Shiriyev.
Read here: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Read here: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Iran’s Northern Neighbors Are Facing Fallout From the War, Too
The conflict is threatening stability in Armenia and Azerbaijan.
carnegieendowment.org
March 16, 2026 at 8:23 PM
The war in Iran, now in its third week, has had serious regional consequences. That puts Armenia and Azerbaijan “on the front line of regional instability,” writes Zaur Shiriyev.
Read here: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Read here: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
This year Armenia and Azerbaijan inch towards a peace agreement. Armenia holds a critical parliamentary elections. I discuss 2026 in the region for the @carnegieeurope.bsky.social podcast with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social and Areg Kochinyan.
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
Is 2026 a Turning Point for Armenia and Azerbaijan? | Europe Inside Out
Thomas de Waal, Zaur Shiriyev, and Areg Kochinyan examine recent shifts in Armenia–Azerbaijan relations and explore future trajectories in the South Caucasus.
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com
February 11, 2026 at 2:25 PM
This year Armenia and Azerbaijan inch towards a peace agreement. Armenia holds a critical parliamentary elections. I discuss 2026 in the region for the @carnegieeurope.bsky.social podcast with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social and Areg Kochinyan.
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
europe-inside-out.simplecast.com/episodes/is-...
My new piece for Strategic Europe on why the EU is falling behind in the South Caucasus connectivity race and what it can do about it:
🆕 | The EU lacks leadership and strategic planning in the South Caucasus, while the United States is leading the charge.
To secure its geopolitical interests, Brussels must invest in new connectivity for the region, argues @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
To secure its geopolitical interests, Brussels must invest in new connectivity for the region, argues @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Europe Falls Behind in the South Caucasus Connectivity Race
The EU lacks leadership and strategic planning in the South Caucasus, while the United States is leading the charge. To secure its geopolitical interests, Brussels must invest in new connectivity for ...
carnegieendowment.org
February 3, 2026 at 10:43 AM
My new piece for Strategic Europe on why the EU is falling behind in the South Caucasus connectivity race and what it can do about it:
A new paper I co-authored with Philip Gamaghelyan
is out. It looks at practical steps toward lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and how different actors can support long-term stability.Any feedback is welcome.
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
is out. It looks at practical steps toward lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and how different actors can support long-term stability.Any feedback is welcome.
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
Strategic Directions for Building Sustainable Peace Between Armenia and Azerbaijan
An official peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan cannot by itself resolve decades of mistrust. The durability of peace will depend on healing trauma, reframing identities, diversifying narra...
carnegieendowment.org
December 8, 2025 at 6:56 AM
A new paper I co-authored with Philip Gamaghelyan
is out. It looks at practical steps toward lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and how different actors can support long-term stability.Any feedback is welcome.
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
is out. It looks at practical steps toward lasting peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia, and how different actors can support long-term stability.Any feedback is welcome.
carnegieendowment.org/research/202...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Have Armenia and Azerbaijan made any more progress towards peace since the White House summit in August? My conversation with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social for @ceip-politika.bsky.social covers that and more! Check it out now: youtu.be/N3TXiu7LM2s?...
A Geopolitical Shift in the South Caucasus and the Future of TRIPP | Zaur Shiriyev
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
youtu.be
October 30, 2025 at 12:22 PM
Have Armenia and Azerbaijan made any more progress towards peace since the White House summit in August? My conversation with @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social for @ceip-politika.bsky.social covers that and more! Check it out now: youtu.be/N3TXiu7LM2s?...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Does the tail wag the dog? Also, who's the dog?
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social outlined Baku-Ankara ties – and much more – as Azerbaijan and Armenia work towards a peace deal.
Also covered: transit corridors, regional implications and the Organization of Turkic States.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxNK...
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social outlined Baku-Ankara ties – and much more – as Azerbaijan and Armenia work towards a peace deal.
Also covered: transit corridors, regional implications and the Organization of Turkic States.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxNK...
October 8, 2025 at 5:50 AM
Does the tail wag the dog? Also, who's the dog?
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social outlined Baku-Ankara ties – and much more – as Azerbaijan and Armenia work towards a peace deal.
Also covered: transit corridors, regional implications and the Organization of Turkic States.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxNK...
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social outlined Baku-Ankara ties – and much more – as Azerbaijan and Armenia work towards a peace deal.
Also covered: transit corridors, regional implications and the Organization of Turkic States.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=yxNK...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
🎙️ Live webcast today!
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins us to discuss the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks, Zangezur corridor and Organization of Turkic States.
Livestream starts at 1100 UTC / 1400 TRT:
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins us to discuss the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks, Zangezur corridor and Organization of Turkic States.
Livestream starts at 1100 UTC / 1400 TRT:
LIVE SOON: How Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks might reshape the region with Zaur Shiriyev
Starting Oct 7 at 7:00 AM EDT
open.substack.com
October 7, 2025 at 7:12 AM
🎙️ Live webcast today!
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins us to discuss the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks, Zangezur corridor and Organization of Turkic States.
Livestream starts at 1100 UTC / 1400 TRT:
@zaurshiriyev.bsky.social, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins us to discuss the Azerbaijan-Armenia peace talks, Zangezur corridor and Organization of Turkic States.
Livestream starts at 1100 UTC / 1400 TRT:
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...
An Unlikely Road to Peace in the South Caucasus
How common cause against Russia enabled an American deal.
www.foreignaffairs.com
September 22, 2025 at 8:33 AM
Just published, my piece on the U.S. Armenia-Azerbaijan deal and its prospects. There is a lot of hard work still to be done, I argue, but the shared coincidence of interests that neither country wants Russia as a guarantor has been transformative. www.foreignaffairs.com/armenia/unli...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan & Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s White House summit may transform the South Caucasus’ future, with a peace deal announcement. Philip Gamaghelyan & @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social warn that peace remains fragile: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
As They Edge Toward Peace, Armenia and Azerbaijan Must Resist Old Habits
Whether the Washington summit marks a breakthrough or distraction will depend on both leaders’ commitment to finish what they started.
carnegieendowment.org
August 7, 2025 at 9:11 PM
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan & Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s White House summit may transform the South Caucasus’ future, with a peace deal announcement. Philip Gamaghelyan & @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social warn that peace remains fragile: carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
My article on how the Philharmonic Orchestra in #Odesa/#Odessa has played on through all the travails of wartime, and the story of its amazing American conductor, Hobart Earle, who has been with them since 1991.
In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...
In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...
How Odesa’s Philharmonic Orchestra played on through the war
A Ukrainian orchestra and their American conductor withstood Russian missiles to bring music to the city
www.ft.com
July 12, 2025 at 12:38 PM
My article on how the Philharmonic Orchestra in #Odesa/#Odessa has played on through all the travails of wartime, and the story of its amazing American conductor, Hobart Earle, who has been with them since 1991.
In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...
In today’s FT magazine (sorry, behind a paywall). www.ft.com/content/9dc6...
Shared a few thoughts (for what they're worth) on the Russia–Azerbaijan tensions:
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/w...
Russia-Azerbaijan Tensions Soar, Threatening Moscow’s Influence
www.nytimes.com
July 2, 2025 at 4:10 PM
Shared a few thoughts (for what they're worth) on the Russia–Azerbaijan tensions:
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/w...
www.nytimes.com/2025/07/02/w...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would put a definitive end to a decades-long conflict—and help prevent Russia from reasserting itself in the South Caucasus, argues @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan
A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.
www.foreignaffairs.com
June 11, 2025 at 6:34 PM
A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would put a definitive end to a decades-long conflict—and help prevent Russia from reasserting itself in the South Caucasus, argues @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
www.foreignaffairs.com/azerbaijan/p... Zaur's piece on Azerbaijan is excellent, authoritative, comprehensive and asks the hard questions about the country's future @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social
The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan
A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.
www.foreignaffairs.com
May 27, 2025 at 9:48 AM
www.foreignaffairs.com/azerbaijan/p... Zaur's piece on Azerbaijan is excellent, authoritative, comprehensive and asks the hard questions about the country's future @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would cement a “new order in the South Caucasus,” writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social. “Yet it is unclear whether Azerbaijan will embrace the opportunity.”
The Precarious Power of Azerbaijan
A delayed peace with Armenia endangers a new regional order.
www.foreignaffairs.com
May 26, 2025 at 2:54 PM
A formal peace agreement between Azerbaijan and Armenia would cement a “new order in the South Caucasus,” writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social. “Yet it is unclear whether Azerbaijan will embrace the opportunity.”
In my new piece for Strategic Europe, I look at how the EU and Turkey could work together in the South Caucasus, and what assumptions might need to change to make that possible: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Why the EU Needs Turkey in the South Caucasus
As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU and Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement. Converging interests in connectivity, stability, and regional integratio...
carnegieendowment.org
May 22, 2025 at 2:35 PM
In my new piece for Strategic Europe, I look at how the EU and Turkey could work together in the South Caucasus, and what assumptions might need to change to make that possible: carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU & Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement.
Converging interests might foster cooperation if long-standing assumptions are set aside, writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Converging interests might foster cooperation if long-standing assumptions are set aside, writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Why the EU Needs Turkey in the South Caucasus
As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU and Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement. Converging interests in connectivity, stability, and regional integratio...
carnegieendowment.org
May 22, 2025 at 12:24 PM
As the South Caucasus undergoes a strategic realignment, the EU & Turkey have an opportunity to recalibrate their engagement.
Converging interests might foster cooperation if long-standing assumptions are set aside, writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Converging interests might foster cooperation if long-standing assumptions are set aside, writes @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social.
carnegieendowment.org/europe/strat...
Rewarding Russian aggression in Ukraine would send shockwaves across Eurasia. For three years, many countries in its former periphery have benefited from Moscow’s weakness. A bad deal now could reverse that—and embolden Russia.
My latest:
🔗 carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
My latest:
🔗 carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Rewarding Russian Aggression Would Send Shockwaves Across Eurasia
From Georgia to Kazakhstan, all eyes are on the negotiations to end the war in Ukraine—and the outcome will determine Moscow’s capacity to project influence.
carnegieendowment.org
April 11, 2025 at 9:49 AM
Rewarding Russian aggression in Ukraine would send shockwaves across Eurasia. For three years, many countries in its former periphery have benefited from Moscow’s weakness. A bad deal now could reverse that—and embolden Russia.
My latest:
🔗 carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
My latest:
🔗 carnegieendowment.org/russia-euras...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
So much going on in the world that this commentary didn't get enough attention @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social on the importance of seizing the moment for an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal "Without peace, Baku risks mistaking short-term leverage for lasting influence." carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
In the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal, Russia May Try to Play Spoiler
Moscow’s distraction and weakening regional grip allowed the peace negotiations to begin. But that may not last.
carnegieendowment.org
April 4, 2025 at 9:42 AM
So much going on in the world that this commentary didn't get enough attention @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social on the importance of seizing the moment for an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal "Without peace, Baku risks mistaking short-term leverage for lasting influence." carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Will proposed steps to tariff Russian oil exports help to stop the war? Tune in to this deep dissection of the Russian energy sector, by my colleague Sergey Vakulenko and Elizaveta Fokht on @ceip-politika.bsky.social English-language YouTube channel.
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
Are Trump’s Threats Against Russian Oil Realistic & Can the Kremlin Save Gazprom? | Sergey Vakulenko
YouTube video by Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center
youtu.be
April 2, 2025 at 9:48 AM
Will proposed steps to tariff Russian oil exports help to stop the war? Tune in to this deep dissection of the Russian energy sector, by my colleague Sergey Vakulenko and Elizaveta Fokht on @ceip-politika.bsky.social English-language YouTube channel.
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
youtu.be/XW-SP0SBiYY?...
The text of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal is finalized — but Russia may not want it to succeed. I explore why in my latest commentary:
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
In the Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal, Russia May Try to Play Spoiler
Moscow’s distraction and weakening regional grip allowed the peace negotiations to begin. But that may not last.
carnegieendowment.org
March 28, 2025 at 5:46 PM
The text of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace deal is finalized — but Russia may not want it to succeed. I explore why in my latest commentary:
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
carnegieendowment.org/emissary/202...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Russia wading in again on the "Zangezur Corridor"/Syunik transit route across Armenia to Azerbaijan. Zakharova says the ARM-AZ-RUS working group has to be revived, talks of the "destructive influence of the West." A sign that Moscow is worried about losing leverage here to EU tass.ru/ekonomika/23...
Захарова: Запад тормозит разблокирование транспортных коммуникаций на Южном Кавказе
Официальный представитель МИД РФ отметила, что позиция Армении тоже нередко вызывает вопросы
tass.ru
March 28, 2025 at 7:39 AM
Russia wading in again on the "Zangezur Corridor"/Syunik transit route across Armenia to Azerbaijan. Zakharova says the ARM-AZ-RUS working group has to be revived, talks of the "destructive influence of the West." A sign that Moscow is worried about losing leverage here to EU tass.ru/ekonomika/23...
My long essay on how Azerbaijan reclaimed its territories—what others shouldn’t try to copy, and what comes next for the South Caucasus.
Not a “recipe”—just the outcome of a long game.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
Not a “recipe”—just the outcome of a long game.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
gfsis.org
March 21, 2025 at 3:36 PM
My long essay on how Azerbaijan reclaimed its territories—what others shouldn’t try to copy, and what comes next for the South Caucasus.
Not a “recipe”—just the outcome of a long game.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
Not a “recipe”—just the outcome of a long game.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
Reposted by Zaur Shiriyev
Lots of good food for thought in @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social 's deep essay here on the reasons for Azerbaijan's success in the conflict with Armenia in recent years--and the reasons why it is important for Baku to cut a deal.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
gfsis.org
March 21, 2025 at 2:57 PM
Lots of good food for thought in @zaurshiriyev.bsky.social 's deep essay here on the reasons for Azerbaijan's success in the conflict with Armenia in recent years--and the reasons why it is important for Baku to cut a deal.
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...
gfsis.org/wp-content/u...