Trump rules out pre-midterm strikes

Scholar power: 50.0%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Scott Lucas	43%	15	50.0%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

67.0%

1.1 h

0

50.0%

Ranking score

0.745

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Scott Lucas

@scottlucas.bsky.social

New York Times: #Trump Admin ordered plans for return to full #IranWar

Pentagon asked for plans targeting drone & missile arsenal, energy facilities, & other military sites in "short, intense campaign lasting about 3 days"

#Trump on Thurs: Strikes will not restart before #USElections on Nov 3

Scott Lucas @scottlucas.bsky.social · 1h

UPDATES: US War on #Iran, Day 225 --- #Houthis Hit #Riyadh 's International Airport

#SaudiArabia #Yemen #IranWar

eaworldview.com/2026/10/us-w...

UPDATES: US War on Iran, Day 225 - Houthis Hit Riyadh's International Airport - EA WorldView

Attack by Yemen's Houthis on the King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh sets afire and heavily damages a Saudia Airlines commercial plane

eaworldview.com

October 9, 2026 at 5:03 AM

by Michael McFaul

129%

Scholar power: 129.6%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Michael McFaul	72%	36	129.6%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

55.0%

11.6 h

47

129.6%

Ranking score

0.7

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

by Trita Parsi

46%

Scholar power: 46.8%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Trita Parsi	59%	7	46.8%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

75.0%

13.7 h

26

46.8%

Ranking score

0.658

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Trita Parsi

@tparsi.bsky.social

Trump denies the story that he is considering an attack on Iran before the midterms.

Given how little confidence there is in his word, it is unclear whether this will be interpreted as a denial or as a confirmation...

October 8, 2026 at 4:31 PM

Reposted by Alex Callinicos

21%

Scholar power: 21.8%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Alex Callinicos	38%	33	21.8%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Scholar power

85.0%

13.5 h

145

21.8%

Ranking score

0.496

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

by Juan Cole

88%

Scholar power: 88.2%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Juan Cole	60%	24	88.2%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

48.0%

1.8 h

0

88.2%

Ranking score

0.49

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Juan Cole

@jricole.bsky.social

Why Doesn’t Iran Concede under US Pressure? The Limits of Coercion

For Tehran, an agreement can be politically acceptable when it is presented as an exchange between two sovereign states

dlvr.it

October 9, 2026 at 4:25 AM

Reposted by Nandita Sharma

13%

Scholar power: 13.5%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Nandita Sharma	31%	19	13.5%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Scholar power

72.0%

13.0 h

9620

13.5%

Ranking score

0.486

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Ron Filipkowski

@ronfilipkowski.bsky.social

Hours later, Trump posts that the US has just had “productive talks” with Iran and announced the US will not attack Iran before the midterms.

October 8, 2026 at 5:09 PM

by Marc Lynch

77%

Scholar power: 77.9%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Marc Lynch	53%	24	77.9%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

73.0%

7.8 h

13

77.9%

Ranking score

0.478

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Abu Aardvark

@abuaardvark.bsky.social

With Trump’s track record, Iran better have its defenses fully operational from now until November 3

Aron Lund @aronlund.bsky.social · 9h

Trump: “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...

October 8, 2026 at 10:22 PM

by Vali Nasr Reposted by Alex Callinicos, Anne Applebaum

123%

Scholar power: 123.0%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Vali Nasr	76%	15	88.3%
🎓 Alex Callinicos	38%	33	21.8%
🎓 Anne Applebaum	43%	9	12.9%
Total			123.0%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index + sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Scholar power

53.0%

23.5 h

1

123.0%

Ranking score

0.395

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

by Mohammad Marandi

18%

Scholar power: 18.4%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Mohammad Marandi	25%	6	18.4%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

59.0%

13.7 h

212

18.4%

Ranking score

0.223

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

by Anne Applebaum

38%

Scholar power: 38.7%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Anne Applebaum	43%	9	38.7%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

50.0%

21.9 h

24

38.7%

Ranking score

0.182

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

by Matthew Søberg Shugart

147%

Scholar power: 147.5%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Matthew Søberg Shugart	75%	43	147.5%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

52.0%

11.8 h

0

147.5%

Ranking score

0.172

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

by Michael McFaul

129%

Scholar power: 129.6%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Michael McFaul	72%	36	129.6%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

45.0%

23.9 h

0

129.6%

Ranking score

0.166

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

16%

Scholar power: 16.5%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Nathan P. Kalmoe	40%	17	16.5%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Scholar power

75.0%

8.7 h

30

16.5%

Ranking score

0.148

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Dan Froomkin/Press Watch/Heads Up News

@froomkin.bsky.social

"Pentagon Draws Up New Iran Strike Plans as Trump Hesitates"? Trump ordered up those plans. Now maybe he's doing the right thing for once. Maybe he's listening to the people who say it would just make things worse. But the NYT is basically calling him a chicken. www.nytimes.com/2026/10/08/u...

Trump Says U.S. Will Not Strike Iran Again Before Midterms as Military Draws Up New Plans (Gift Article)

The U.S. military has drafted options for three days of strikes, but in recent months the president has repeatedly vetoed plans to restart the war.

www.nytimes.com

October 8, 2026 at 9:32 PM

Reposted by Marc Lynch

26%

Scholar power: 26.0%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Marc Lynch	53%	24	26.0%

Formula for scholar power: sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Scholar power

76.0%

9.9 h

4

26.0%

Ranking score

0.114

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Aron Lund

@aronlund.bsky.social

Trump: “we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections to be held in the United States on November 3rd.” truthsocial.com/@realDonaldT...

October 8, 2026 at 8:17 PM

by James Cameron

50%

Scholar power: 50.5%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 James Cameron	45%	14	50.5%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

53.0%

19.9 h

76

50.5%

Ranking score

0.109

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

James Cameron

@jjjcameron.bsky.social

Drone-enabled counterforce strikes against strategic bombers is now something that US, Russia, China have to take seriously.

Bombers are vulnerable, esp without hard shelters, and their relatively limited numbers mean that a successful strike against even one base can have a big impact.

From Iran to the U.K., Trump Is Being Forced Into Retreat (Gift Article)

A war that was intended to demonstrate the reach of American power has now done the opposite. It is a lesson in unintended consequences.

www.nytimes.com

October 8, 2026 at 10:15 AM

by Vali Nasr

88%

Scholar power: 88.3%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Vali Nasr	76%	15	88.3%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index

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Scholar power

52.0%

23.4 h

19

88.3%

Ranking score

0.099

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Vali Nasr

@valinasr.bsky.social

Retreat of US forces from bases in Persian Gulf to Jordan & Israel & Britain and now retreating from Britain is a setback before effective Iranian strategy, but will have broader unintended consequences for US military presence and effectiveness in rest of the world www.nytimes.com/2026/10/07/u...

From Iran to the U.K., Trump Is Being Forced Into Retreat

A war that was intended to demonstrate the reach of American power has now done the opposite. It is a lesson in unintended consequences.

www.nytimes.com

October 8, 2026 at 6:45 AM

by Seth Masket Reposted by Nathan P. Kalmoe

95%

Scholar power: 95.9%

Story's scientific field profile

Political science 68%, Communication & Media Studies 21%, Law 11%

Name	Field match	H-index	Scholar power
🎓 Seth Masket	54%	24	79.4%
🎓 Nathan P. Kalmoe	40%	17	16.5%
Total			95.9%

Formula for scholar power: 3 × author's field match × √author's h-index + sum of each reposter's field match × √reposter's h-index

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Scholar power

46.0%

11.7 h

22

95.9%

Ranking score

0.098

Formula for ranking score (post): scholar_power × max((total_reposts)^(1/3), 1) × (1 / max(hours_since_posted, 1)) × (raw_relevance)^3

Seth Masket

@smotus.bsky.social

"Trump threatens a lot of things, including political violence, mass race-based deportations, election interference, and nuclear strikes. He does *some* of them. I don’t have a particularly great theory of just where he follows through and where he doesn't."
smotus.substack.com/p/preparing-...