今年 AI 伺服器出貨成長仍有變數,DeepSeek 效應推升 AI 推論占比
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<div id="outlineList_top" style="display:none;"></div><p>TrendForce 最新研究,2024 年全球 AI 伺服器出貨量受惠 CSP、OEM 強勁需求,年增幅 46%。美國晶片禁令、DeepSeek 效應、GB200 / GB300 Rack 供應鏈整備進度等,成為影響 2025 年 AI 伺服器出貨量變數,TrendForce 提出三種情境預估。<span id="more-1343347"></span></p><div class="inside_AD no-ad-env" id="inside_AD" style="display:none"><!-- /95946079/(ON)TN_TW_PC_DTL_Content01_970x250 -->
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<p>第一種為基礎情境(base case),發生機率最高。近期微軟、Meta、亞馬遜、Google等主要CSP業者皆宣布,擴大雲端或AI基礎設施資本支出,平均年成長可望逾30%,支撐AI伺服器需求動能。供應鏈對全年整體AI伺服器出貨量評估尚無明顯變化,TrendForce預估今年全球AI伺服器出貨量有望年增近28%。然若今年GB200 / GB300 Rack出貨放量遭遇挑戰,CSP等終端客戶可能轉為優先拉貨HGX、MGX等機種,或佈建自有ASIC基礎建設。</p>
<p>發生機率次高的是悲觀情境(worse case),整體AI伺服器出貨量年成長介於20%~25%。TrendForce表示,源自三大考量:首先,美國可能進一步管制AI晶片輸入中國影響擴大;其次,NVIDIA GB Rack方案因設計複雜,出貨大宗落在下半年,GB300也是相同時間點推出,規格較高,對整體伺服器Rack系統測試、驗證期程也會拉長。最後考量DeepSeek效應,可能導致客戶降低依賴高階AI方案。</p>
<p>樂觀情境(bullish case)立基於美中政府AI政策轉趨積極,如美國Stargate計畫可望加速各業者佈建AI伺服器。儘管DeepSeek可能影響高階GPU採用,但美系CSP購置自家ASIC AI伺服器速度優於預期,加上DeepSeek效應有助擴大AI應用場景,帶動邊緣AI伺服器發展。綜上所述,今年AI伺服器出貨樂觀預估為年增近35%。</p>
<p>TrendForce指出,DeepSeek驅動下,CSP業者料更積極發展成本較低的自有ASIC方案,重心從AI訓練轉往AI推論,逐步推升AI推論伺服器占比至接近50%。將來GPU仍支持各種AI演算法發展,但「分眾化」會更明顯,持續發展大型演算法的CSP業者和更重視成本考量的邊緣企業客戶各有需求。</p>
<p>(首圖來源:shutterstock)</p>
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<div class="article-tags-area">關鍵字: <a href="https://technews.tw/tag/ai-%e4%bc%ba%e6%9c%8d%e5%99%a8/" rel="tag">AI 伺服器</a> , <a href="https://technews.tw/tag/ai-%e6%8e%a8%e8%ab%96/" rel="tag">AI 推論</a> , <a href="https://technews.tw/tag/csp/" rel="tag">CSP</a> , <a href="https://technews.tw/tag/deepseek/" rel="tag">DeepSeek</a> , <a href="https://technews.tw/tag/gb200/" rel="tag">GB200</a> , <a href="https://technews.tw/tag/gb300/" rel="tag">GB300</a></div><!-- .entry-meta -->