Emailed 25Q1 sales reports to 246 member-publishers. Payments will go out by April 11.
April 4, 2025 at 3:02 AM
Emailed 25Q1 sales reports to 246 member-publishers. Payments will go out by April 11.
24Q4 sales reports mailed to 250 member-publishers. Many thanks to our publishers, retailers, customers, and staff for our best 4th quarter yet.
We're pleased to see 25Q1 is off to a strong start.
We're pleased to see 25Q1 is off to a strong start.
January 9, 2025 at 5:58 AM
24Q4 sales reports mailed to 250 member-publishers. Many thanks to our publishers, retailers, customers, and staff for our best 4th quarter yet.
We're pleased to see 25Q1 is off to a strong start.
We're pleased to see 25Q1 is off to a strong start.
Turns out "chaotic evil" is not a sound economic policy.
GDPNow estimate for real GDP growth in 25Q1 is -2.8% with addition of stagnating ISM manufacturing index and new lower personal consumption growth.
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
GDPNow estimate for real GDP growth in 25Q1 is -2.8% with addition of stagnating ISM manufacturing index and new lower personal consumption growth.
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
March 3, 2025 at 8:36 PM
Turns out "chaotic evil" is not a sound economic policy.
GDPNow estimate for real GDP growth in 25Q1 is -2.8% with addition of stagnating ISM manufacturing index and new lower personal consumption growth.
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
GDPNow estimate for real GDP growth in 25Q1 is -2.8% with addition of stagnating ISM manufacturing index and new lower personal consumption growth.
www.atlantafed.org/cqer/researc...
My take on this AMs important first look at '25q1 GDP. There's both real strength and concerning weakness in the report. (bonus: ECI too!)
econjared.substack.com/p/gdp-falls-...
econjared.substack.com/p/gdp-falls-...
GDP Falls in '25Q1: Report reveals both real risks and underlying strength.
Prices and imports spike, but so does investment. Punchline: there's still time to fix this, Mr. President. But you need to quickly mend your ways.
econjared.substack.com
April 30, 2025 at 2:06 PM
My take on this AMs important first look at '25q1 GDP. There's both real strength and concerning weakness in the report. (bonus: ECI too!)
econjared.substack.com/p/gdp-falls-...
econjared.substack.com/p/gdp-falls-...
Now now now!
NY Fed's Nowcast for 25Q1 GDP is +2.9%. <https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast#/nowcast>
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is -2.8%. <https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx>.
That's a 5.7-point gap! Who's right?
NY Fed's Nowcast for 25Q1 GDP is +2.9%. <https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast#/nowcast>
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is -2.8%. <https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx>.
That's a 5.7-point gap! Who's right?
March 3, 2025 at 5:26 PM
Now now now!
NY Fed's Nowcast for 25Q1 GDP is +2.9%. <https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast#/nowcast>
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is -2.8%. <https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx>.
That's a 5.7-point gap! Who's right?
NY Fed's Nowcast for 25Q1 GDP is +2.9%. <https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast#/nowcast>
Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is -2.8%. <https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow.aspx>.
That's a 5.7-point gap! Who's right?
Philip Morris $PM: One way of deciding whether US ZYN volume "decelerated" in 25Q2 is to review the chart with 25Q1 covered and decide if trajectory looks broken then
With that lens, it is more like 25Q1 was unusually good than 25Q2 being in any way bad
With that lens, it is more like 25Q1 was unusually good than 25Q2 being in any way bad
July 22, 2025 at 2:13 PM
Philip Morris $PM: One way of deciding whether US ZYN volume "decelerated" in 25Q2 is to review the chart with 25Q1 covered and decide if trajectory looks broken then
With that lens, it is more like 25Q1 was unusually good than 25Q2 being in any way bad
With that lens, it is more like 25Q1 was unusually good than 25Q2 being in any way bad
Share of UK TV time (25Q1)
$NFLX Netflix: ~9%
$GOOG YouTube: ~7%
Linear TV is still ~50%
Disney+ and Prime Video are ~3% each
BBC is ~20% across both linear and streaming
Source: Barb, via NFLX 25Q1 results
$NFLX Netflix: ~9%
$GOOG YouTube: ~7%
Linear TV is still ~50%
Disney+ and Prime Video are ~3% each
BBC is ~20% across both linear and streaming
Source: Barb, via NFLX 25Q1 results
April 17, 2025 at 8:45 PM
Share of UK TV time (25Q1)
$NFLX Netflix: ~9%
$GOOG YouTube: ~7%
Linear TV is still ~50%
Disney+ and Prime Video are ~3% each
BBC is ~20% across both linear and streaming
Source: Barb, via NFLX 25Q1 results
$NFLX Netflix: ~9%
$GOOG YouTube: ~7%
Linear TV is still ~50%
Disney+ and Prime Video are ~3% each
BBC is ~20% across both linear and streaming
Source: Barb, via NFLX 25Q1 results
McDonalds #$MCD e. coli outbreak in 24Q4
(raw onions in Quarter Pounders)
"1 death & dozens of illnesses across 10 states over a roughly 2-week period that ended Oct 11"
US Comp Sales -1.4% in 24Q4, -3.6% in 25Q1
But traffic improved m/m Nov, Dec
25Q1 blamed on consumer weakness
(raw onions in Quarter Pounders)
"1 death & dozens of illnesses across 10 states over a roughly 2-week period that ended Oct 11"
US Comp Sales -1.4% in 24Q4, -3.6% in 25Q1
But traffic improved m/m Nov, Dec
25Q1 blamed on consumer weakness
July 21, 2026 at 3:48 PM
McDonalds #$MCD e. coli outbreak in 24Q4
(raw onions in Quarter Pounders)
"1 death & dozens of illnesses across 10 states over a roughly 2-week period that ended Oct 11"
US Comp Sales -1.4% in 24Q4, -3.6% in 25Q1
But traffic improved m/m Nov, Dec
25Q1 blamed on consumer weakness
(raw onions in Quarter Pounders)
"1 death & dozens of illnesses across 10 states over a roughly 2-week period that ended Oct 11"
US Comp Sales -1.4% in 24Q4, -3.6% in 25Q1
But traffic improved m/m Nov, Dec
25Q1 blamed on consumer weakness
McDonalds $MCD 25Q1
Q1 Comp. sales -1.0% globally, incl. -3.6% US
"Primarily driven by negative comp. guest counts"
System sales -1%
Revenue -3%
EBIT -3%, Net Income -3%
EPS -2% (share count -1%)
Q1 Comp. sales -1.0% globally, incl. -3.6% US
"Primarily driven by negative comp. guest counts"
System sales -1%
Revenue -3%
EBIT -3%, Net Income -3%
EPS -2% (share count -1%)
May 1, 2025 at 7:13 PM
McDonalds $MCD 25Q1
Q1 Comp. sales -1.0% globally, incl. -3.6% US
"Primarily driven by negative comp. guest counts"
System sales -1%
Revenue -3%
EBIT -3%, Net Income -3%
EPS -2% (share count -1%)
Q1 Comp. sales -1.0% globally, incl. -3.6% US
"Primarily driven by negative comp. guest counts"
System sales -1%
Revenue -3%
EBIT -3%, Net Income -3%
EPS -2% (share count -1%)
K-shaped economy, Delta Air Lines $DAL edition
Ticket sales growth - Main Cabin vs. Premium
25Q1: -1% vs. +7%
25Q2: -5% vs. +5%
25Q3: -4% vs. +9%
25Q4: -7% vs. +9%
2024: flat vs. +8% (Q4: +2% vs. +8%)
h/t George Pearkes
Ticket sales growth - Main Cabin vs. Premium
25Q1: -1% vs. +7%
25Q2: -5% vs. +5%
25Q3: -4% vs. +9%
25Q4: -7% vs. +9%
2024: flat vs. +8% (Q4: +2% vs. +8%)
h/t George Pearkes
January 13, 2026 at 6:00 PM
K-shaped economy, Delta Air Lines $DAL edition
Ticket sales growth - Main Cabin vs. Premium
25Q1: -1% vs. +7%
25Q2: -5% vs. +5%
25Q3: -4% vs. +9%
25Q4: -7% vs. +9%
2024: flat vs. +8% (Q4: +2% vs. +8%)
h/t George Pearkes
Ticket sales growth - Main Cabin vs. Premium
25Q1: -1% vs. +7%
25Q2: -5% vs. +5%
25Q3: -4% vs. +9%
25Q4: -7% vs. +9%
2024: flat vs. +8% (Q4: +2% vs. +8%)
h/t George Pearkes
Philip Morris #$PM 26Q1
Q1 revenue +9.1% in $, +2.7% organic
GP +3.8% organic
OCI +0.9% organic ("investments")
Adj. EPS +5.3% ex-FX
US ZYN offtake volume +10%, shipment -23.5%
(25Q1 restocking, shipment +53%)
Updates FY26 guide for FX
Adj. EPS +7.5-9.5% ex-FX, +10.9-12.9% in $
Q1 revenue +9.1% in $, +2.7% organic
GP +3.8% organic
OCI +0.9% organic ("investments")
Adj. EPS +5.3% ex-FX
US ZYN offtake volume +10%, shipment -23.5%
(25Q1 restocking, shipment +53%)
Updates FY26 guide for FX
Adj. EPS +7.5-9.5% ex-FX, +10.9-12.9% in $
April 22, 2026 at 11:58 AM
Philip Morris #$PM 26Q1
Q1 revenue +9.1% in $, +2.7% organic
GP +3.8% organic
OCI +0.9% organic ("investments")
Adj. EPS +5.3% ex-FX
US ZYN offtake volume +10%, shipment -23.5%
(25Q1 restocking, shipment +53%)
Updates FY26 guide for FX
Adj. EPS +7.5-9.5% ex-FX, +10.9-12.9% in $
Q1 revenue +9.1% in $, +2.7% organic
GP +3.8% organic
OCI +0.9% organic ("investments")
Adj. EPS +5.3% ex-FX
US ZYN offtake volume +10%, shipment -23.5%
(25Q1 restocking, shipment +53%)
Updates FY26 guide for FX
Adj. EPS +7.5-9.5% ex-FX, +10.9-12.9% in $
Buckle up! We know January is going to be a bit bumpy, but we've got some incredible new Vast contributors coming your way in 25Q1.
a cartoon of perry the platypus wearing a hat and belt
Alt: Perry the Platypus buckles up with five straps across his body, a serious look on his face.
media.tenor.com
January 10, 2025 at 4:13 PM
Buckle up! We know January is going to be a bit bumpy, but we've got some incredible new Vast contributors coming your way in 25Q1.
I'd discount the current recession buzz, esp the GDPNow cliff dive for '25q1. That said, the current admin is squandering their inheritance of a strong economy much like that Russian kid in Anora.
econjared.substack.com/p/recession-...
econjared.substack.com/p/recession-...
Recession?! Hold on thar, pardner!
Some lights are flashing yellow, for good reason. But don’t over-torque on that Atlanta Fed forecast.
econjared.substack.com
March 6, 2025 at 1:22 PM
I'd discount the current recession buzz, esp the GDPNow cliff dive for '25q1. That said, the current admin is squandering their inheritance of a strong economy much like that Russian kid in Anora.
econjared.substack.com/p/recession-...
econjared.substack.com/p/recession-...
LVMH $MC 25Q1 sales call (Mon) highlights
1/ Wine & Spirits weakness mainly in US & China Cognac
Champagne: modest volume decline, positive price/mix
Cognac: "soft sellout in the US and China"
cc: $DGE $RCO
1/ Wine & Spirits weakness mainly in US & China Cognac
Champagne: modest volume decline, positive price/mix
Cognac: "soft sellout in the US and China"
cc: $DGE $RCO
April 19, 2025 at 10:19 AM
LVMH $MC 25Q1 sales call (Mon) highlights
1/ Wine & Spirits weakness mainly in US & China Cognac
Champagne: modest volume decline, positive price/mix
Cognac: "soft sellout in the US and China"
cc: $DGE $RCO
1/ Wine & Spirits weakness mainly in US & China Cognac
Champagne: modest volume decline, positive price/mix
Cognac: "soft sellout in the US and China"
cc: $DGE $RCO
CoStar $CGSP 25Q1 showed little growth in International Residential revenue
25Q1 International Residential revenue: $10.7m
(PY: $10.2m, 24Q4: $10.8m)
Limited financial progress, consistent with Rightmove $RMV retaining market dominance
25Q1 International Residential revenue: $10.7m
(PY: $10.2m, 24Q4: $10.8m)
Limited financial progress, consistent with Rightmove $RMV retaining market dominance
April 30, 2025 at 6:13 AM
CoStar $CGSP 25Q1 showed little growth in International Residential revenue
25Q1 International Residential revenue: $10.7m
(PY: $10.2m, 24Q4: $10.8m)
Limited financial progress, consistent with Rightmove $RMV retaining market dominance
25Q1 International Residential revenue: $10.7m
(PY: $10.2m, 24Q4: $10.8m)
Limited financial progress, consistent with Rightmove $RMV retaining market dominance
Time to grab life by the art: Issue 13 is out and it’s ready to take charge, to split the world down its center. Dive in!
vastliterarypress.org/25q1/
vastliterarypress.org/25q1/
25Q1
Editor’s Note I cannot extract this time, or this issue of Vast Chasm, from the current political and social moment. In the pieces collected here, we are asked to consider how we handle grief…
vastliterarypress.org
January 18, 2025 at 3:04 PM
Time to grab life by the art: Issue 13 is out and it’s ready to take charge, to split the world down its center. Dive in!
vastliterarypress.org/25q1/
vastliterarypress.org/25q1/
Bill Ackman, on 27-Jan: "Other than the almighty, who has accomplished more in seven days than Trump?"
Pershing Square $PSH: "In January, there was a lot of market excitement ... so we decided ... to make some reductions"; reduced Chipotle, Alphabet, Hilton by 10-40% (25Q1 call)
Pershing Square $PSH: "In January, there was a lot of market excitement ... so we decided ... to make some reductions"; reduced Chipotle, Alphabet, Hilton by 10-40% (25Q1 call)
May 25, 2025 at 9:28 AM
Bill Ackman, on 27-Jan: "Other than the almighty, who has accomplished more in seven days than Trump?"
Pershing Square $PSH: "In January, there was a lot of market excitement ... so we decided ... to make some reductions"; reduced Chipotle, Alphabet, Hilton by 10-40% (25Q1 call)
Pershing Square $PSH: "In January, there was a lot of market excitement ... so we decided ... to make some reductions"; reduced Chipotle, Alphabet, Hilton by 10-40% (25Q1 call)
Philip Morris $PM 25Q1
Rev. +10.2% organic, +5.8% reported
GP +11.8%, EBIT +16.4% reported
Total volume +3.9%, o/w
Cigarette +1.1%
HTU +11.9% (IMS +9.4%)
US ZYN volume +53%
Raises FY25 guide for FX only
Adj. EPS now $7.36-7.49
Growth +12-14% (was +7.2-9.1%)
(10.5-12.5% ex-FX)
Rev. +10.2% organic, +5.8% reported
GP +11.8%, EBIT +16.4% reported
Total volume +3.9%, o/w
Cigarette +1.1%
HTU +11.9% (IMS +9.4%)
US ZYN volume +53%
Raises FY25 guide for FX only
Adj. EPS now $7.36-7.49
Growth +12-14% (was +7.2-9.1%)
(10.5-12.5% ex-FX)
April 23, 2025 at 11:37 AM
Philip Morris $PM 25Q1
Rev. +10.2% organic, +5.8% reported
GP +11.8%, EBIT +16.4% reported
Total volume +3.9%, o/w
Cigarette +1.1%
HTU +11.9% (IMS +9.4%)
US ZYN volume +53%
Raises FY25 guide for FX only
Adj. EPS now $7.36-7.49
Growth +12-14% (was +7.2-9.1%)
(10.5-12.5% ex-FX)
Rev. +10.2% organic, +5.8% reported
GP +11.8%, EBIT +16.4% reported
Total volume +3.9%, o/w
Cigarette +1.1%
HTU +11.9% (IMS +9.4%)
US ZYN volume +53%
Raises FY25 guide for FX only
Adj. EPS now $7.36-7.49
Growth +12-14% (was +7.2-9.1%)
(10.5-12.5% ex-FX)
McDonald's #$MCD US margin issue:
"Our US company-operated margins* in the quarter were not acceptable ... Longer term, we believe there is an increased risk of higher cost inflation due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions"
(26Q1 call)
* 8.1% vs. 25Q1 10.9%; 2025: 11.6%
"Our US company-operated margins* in the quarter were not acceptable ... Longer term, we believe there is an increased risk of higher cost inflation due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions"
(26Q1 call)
* 8.1% vs. 25Q1 10.9%; 2025: 11.6%
July 19, 2026 at 6:57 PM
McDonald's #$MCD US margin issue:
"Our US company-operated margins* in the quarter were not acceptable ... Longer term, we believe there is an increased risk of higher cost inflation due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions"
(26Q1 call)
* 8.1% vs. 25Q1 10.9%; 2025: 11.6%
"Our US company-operated margins* in the quarter were not acceptable ... Longer term, we believe there is an increased risk of higher cost inflation due to ongoing global supply chain disruptions"
(26Q1 call)
* 8.1% vs. 25Q1 10.9%; 2025: 11.6%
Walmart $WMT locking up Beauty products to reduce shoplifting has contributed to sales decline YTD, per L'Oréal $OR CEO
"They have taken these anti theft measures where they have locked under windows makeup and skincare ... that has a very negative impact"
(25Q1 call, 17-Apr)
"They have taken these anti theft measures where they have locked under windows makeup and skincare ... that has a very negative impact"
(25Q1 call, 17-Apr)
April 19, 2025 at 9:00 PM
Walmart $WMT locking up Beauty products to reduce shoplifting has contributed to sales decline YTD, per L'Oréal $OR CEO
"They have taken these anti theft measures where they have locked under windows makeup and skincare ... that has a very negative impact"
(25Q1 call, 17-Apr)
"They have taken these anti theft measures where they have locked under windows makeup and skincare ... that has a very negative impact"
(25Q1 call, 17-Apr)
TF Bank. 25Q1.
Rullar på som vanligt.
Kanske väl hög andel i Tyskland. Lite negativt påverkade av stärkt krona.
Inget konstigt tänker jag. Enligt mina kalkyler en potential på 33% på två år. Just nu kanske lika mycket risk som chans. Utgör en liten del av portföljen.
Reaktioner!? #Finanstwitter
Rullar på som vanligt.
Kanske väl hög andel i Tyskland. Lite negativt påverkade av stärkt krona.
Inget konstigt tänker jag. Enligt mina kalkyler en potential på 33% på två år. Just nu kanske lika mycket risk som chans. Utgör en liten del av portföljen.
Reaktioner!? #Finanstwitter
April 14, 2025 at 7:24 AM
TF Bank. 25Q1.
Rullar på som vanligt.
Kanske väl hög andel i Tyskland. Lite negativt påverkade av stärkt krona.
Inget konstigt tänker jag. Enligt mina kalkyler en potential på 33% på två år. Just nu kanske lika mycket risk som chans. Utgör en liten del av portföljen.
Reaktioner!? #Finanstwitter
Rullar på som vanligt.
Kanske väl hög andel i Tyskland. Lite negativt påverkade av stärkt krona.
Inget konstigt tänker jag. Enligt mina kalkyler en potential på 33% på två år. Just nu kanske lika mycket risk som chans. Utgör en liten del av portföljen.
Reaktioner!? #Finanstwitter
LVMH $MC Perfumes & Cosmetics sales also not immune to slowdown
Organic sales growth for the division were:
2023: +11%
2024: +4%
25Q1: -1%
Organic sales growth for the division were:
2023: +11%
2024: +4%
25Q1: -1%
June 27, 2025 at 1:15 PM
LVMH $MC Perfumes & Cosmetics sales also not immune to slowdown
Organic sales growth for the division were:
2023: +11%
2024: +4%
25Q1: -1%
Organic sales growth for the division were:
2023: +11%
2024: +4%
25Q1: -1%
Also Altria $MO: "We estimate the (US) e-vapor category included more than 20m vapers, up over 2.6 million versus a year ago ... (US) disposable vapers increased by an estimated 4m to approximately 14m" (25Q1 results)
June 10, 2025 at 5:17 AM
Also Altria $MO: "We estimate the (US) e-vapor category included more than 20m vapers, up over 2.6 million versus a year ago ... (US) disposable vapers increased by an estimated 4m to approximately 14m" (25Q1 results)
UK Combustible market volume fell ~20% in 25Q1
(JT voume fell 19.4% while it gained 40bps share q/q)
cc: $IMB
(JT voume fell 19.4% while it gained 40bps share q/q)
cc: $IMB
May 7, 2025 at 7:30 AM
UK Combustible market volume fell ~20% in 25Q1
(JT voume fell 19.4% while it gained 40bps share q/q)
cc: $IMB
(JT voume fell 19.4% while it gained 40bps share q/q)
cc: $IMB