I regret to inform you that One Nation is outperforming Labor in 2PP polls now
Are Albo and Carney the only centre left leaders who aren’t marching into electoral oblivion at this point
June 21, 2026 at 11:41 PM
I regret to inform you that One Nation is outperforming Labor in 2PP polls now
#Newspoll No official 2PP (for the first time since 2002)
ALP 33
ON 27
L/NP 18 (includes Nat 3)
Greens 12
Ind/others 10
My 2PP estimate 56.0 to ALP
My shadow-2PP estimate 54.4 to ALP vs ON
ALP 33
ON 27
L/NP 18 (includes Nat 3)
Greens 12
Ind/others 10
My 2PP estimate 56.0 to ALP
My shadow-2PP estimate 54.4 to ALP vs ON
February 8, 2026 at 9:42 AM
#Newspoll No official 2PP (for the first time since 2002)
ALP 33
ON 27
L/NP 18 (includes Nat 3)
Greens 12
Ind/others 10
My 2PP estimate 56.0 to ALP
My shadow-2PP estimate 54.4 to ALP vs ON
ALP 33
ON 27
L/NP 18 (includes Nat 3)
Greens 12
Ind/others 10
My 2PP estimate 56.0 to ALP
My shadow-2PP estimate 54.4 to ALP vs ON
One Nation coming second makes the 2PP pointless.
February 8, 2026 at 11:13 AM
One Nation coming second makes the 2PP pointless.
Has the 2PP polling number ever been so pointless?
With a third of voters now rejecting the major parties, safe seats being most likely to fall to indies, and the indie vote being dispersed v unevenly, the 2PP number might as well be a coin toss.
With a third of voters now rejecting the major parties, safe seats being most likely to fall to indies, and the indie vote being dispersed v unevenly, the 2PP number might as well be a coin toss.
February 17, 2025 at 12:12 AM
Has the 2PP polling number ever been so pointless?
With a third of voters now rejecting the major parties, safe seats being most likely to fall to indies, and the indie vote being dispersed v unevenly, the 2PP number might as well be a coin toss.
With a third of voters now rejecting the major parties, safe seats being most likely to fall to indies, and the indie vote being dispersed v unevenly, the 2PP number might as well be a coin toss.
Labor wins the 2PP in Wentworth (just)! (Allegra Spender IND won the seat). First ALP 2PP victory in a teal seat as such, Labor also won 2PP Mayo 2022. I'll have lots of detailed analysis re this sort of stuff when all seats are done.
May 27, 2025 at 8:24 AM
Labor wins the 2PP in Wentworth (just)! (Allegra Spender IND won the seat). First ALP 2PP victory in a teal seat as such, Labor also won 2PP Mayo 2022. I'll have lots of detailed analysis re this sort of stuff when all seats are done.
still truly incredible that microsoft let 2PP film this meeting and put matt booty coming off as the biggest tool who ever lived and making an enemy out of everyone in the room in the psychonauts 2 documentary
July 6, 2026 at 8:51 PM
still truly incredible that microsoft let 2PP film this meeting and put matt booty coming off as the biggest tool who ever lived and making an enemy out of everyone in the room in the psychonauts 2 documentary
Australia needs to send a deployment team from the AEC to teach on-the-night 2pp preference distribution counts
FYI, we likely won't find out the results of the NYC mayoral election for another week. Tonight we're only expecting to get the results from the *first round* of ranked-choice voting.
How Will We Know Who Won NYC’s Mayoral Election, and When Will We Know It?
It’s unlikely we’ll know who won the mayor’s race on Primary Day.
www.thecity.nyc
June 25, 2025 at 1:35 AM
Australia needs to send a deployment team from the AEC to teach on-the-night 2pp preference distribution counts
oh i know but still them leading the 2PP is insane
June 22, 2026 at 12:09 AM
oh i know but still them leading the 2PP is insane
2PP aggregate numbers per @kevinbonham.bsky.social.
It's truly amazing what happens when people start properly focusing on the alternative candidate ............ ↘️
#auspol
It's truly amazing what happens when people start properly focusing on the alternative candidate ............ ↘️
#auspol
March 24, 2025 at 4:11 AM
2PP aggregate numbers per @kevinbonham.bsky.social.
It's truly amazing what happens when people start properly focusing on the alternative candidate ............ ↘️
#auspol
It's truly amazing what happens when people start properly focusing on the alternative candidate ............ ↘️
#auspol
In Hawke (Liberal target seat), counters telling me swing to Labor’s Sam Rae on 2PP.
May 3, 2025 at 10:21 AM
In Hawke (Liberal target seat), counters telling me swing to Labor’s Sam Rae on 2PP.
October 17, 2024 at 8:50 PM
*correction: they're ahead in primary votes but only getting close in 2PP
June 22, 2026 at 2:09 AM
*correction: they're ahead in primary votes but only getting close in 2PP
Latest #Newspoll is unchanged (2PP). Dutton’s net approval drops a further 2 points: Most Australians now prefer haemorrhoids to Dutton. #AusVotes2025
April 27, 2025 at 10:21 AM
Latest #Newspoll is unchanged (2PP). Dutton’s net approval drops a further 2 points: Most Australians now prefer haemorrhoids to Dutton. #AusVotes2025
#Redbridge Vic (state) 52-48 to ALP
ALP 32 L-NP 37 Green 13 others 18
I concur with the 2PP. Labor would win easily off these numbers, Coalition probably need a substantial 2PP lead. #springst
ALP 32 L-NP 37 Green 13 others 18
I concur with the 2PP. Labor would win easily off these numbers, Coalition probably need a substantial 2PP lead. #springst
September 17, 2025 at 1:20 AM
#Redbridge Vic (state) 52-48 to ALP
ALP 32 L-NP 37 Green 13 others 18
I concur with the 2PP. Labor would win easily off these numbers, Coalition probably need a substantial 2PP lead. #springst
ALP 32 L-NP 37 Green 13 others 18
I concur with the 2PP. Labor would win easily off these numbers, Coalition probably need a substantial 2PP lead. #springst
Woohoo! This is fantastic. Previously it has only been possible to approximate the 2PP flow from most non-classic 2CP candidates.
My latest post is a big drop of new data. For the first time I publish two-party preferred preference data in so-called Non-Classic divisions, including high profile Independents. Data for the 2019, 2022 and 2025 elections. antonygreen.com.au/fed2025-inde...
February 15, 2026 at 10:29 AM
Woohoo! This is fantastic. Previously it has only been possible to approximate the 2PP flow from most non-classic 2CP candidates.
I've read Schumpeter Capitalism Socialism & Democracy cover to cover at least half a dozen times and it's only in the middle of class last week that I noticed the ~2pp devoted to the proposition "with no power comes no responsibility"— sometimes in almost verbatim that language—
1/
1/
September 27, 2026 at 1:10 AM
I've read Schumpeter Capitalism Socialism & Democracy cover to cover at least half a dozen times and it's only in the middle of class last week that I noticed the ~2pp devoted to the proposition "with no power comes no responsibility"— sometimes in almost verbatim that language—
1/
1/
Antony Green on 730: “In Australia, because of compulsory voting, we see disengagement turn up in just voting for other parties“
Seriously. WTF.
Green really has not coped with voters shifting from 2PP.
People don’t votes for independents/Greens etc because they are disengaged with politics, FFS
Seriously. WTF.
Green really has not coped with voters shifting from 2PP.
People don’t votes for independents/Greens etc because they are disengaged with politics, FFS
May 2, 2025 at 11:15 AM
Antony Green on 730: “In Australia, because of compulsory voting, we see disengagement turn up in just voting for other parties“
Seriously. WTF.
Green really has not coped with voters shifting from 2PP.
People don’t votes for independents/Greens etc because they are disengaged with politics, FFS
Seriously. WTF.
Green really has not coped with voters shifting from 2PP.
People don’t votes for independents/Greens etc because they are disengaged with politics, FFS
#Redbridge 52.5-47.5 in tracked marginals. These are seats where Labor got about 51 2PP in 2022 on average, ie Labor has a 2PP swing and would be on track to majority. www.heraldsun.com.au/news/nationa...
April 12, 2025 at 2:51 AM
#Redbridge 52.5-47.5 in tracked marginals. These are seats where Labor got about 51 2PP in 2022 on average, ie Labor has a 2PP swing and would be on track to majority. www.heraldsun.com.au/news/nationa...
November 2, 2025 at 9:17 AM
#Morgan
***Averages June 2023-25***
Chinese-born Australians ALP 48 L-NP 34 Grn 11 ON 1 IND/other 6. My 2PP estimate 61.3 to ALP.
Indian-born Australians ALP 45 L-NP 39 Grn 8 ON 2 IND/other 6 My 2PP estimate 55.9 to ALP.
www.roymorgan.com/findings/100...
***Averages June 2023-25***
Chinese-born Australians ALP 48 L-NP 34 Grn 11 ON 1 IND/other 6. My 2PP estimate 61.3 to ALP.
Indian-born Australians ALP 45 L-NP 39 Grn 8 ON 2 IND/other 6 My 2PP estimate 55.9 to ALP.
www.roymorgan.com/findings/100...
September 12, 2025 at 7:51 AM
#Morgan
***Averages June 2023-25***
Chinese-born Australians ALP 48 L-NP 34 Grn 11 ON 1 IND/other 6. My 2PP estimate 61.3 to ALP.
Indian-born Australians ALP 45 L-NP 39 Grn 8 ON 2 IND/other 6 My 2PP estimate 55.9 to ALP.
www.roymorgan.com/findings/100...
***Averages June 2023-25***
Chinese-born Australians ALP 48 L-NP 34 Grn 11 ON 1 IND/other 6. My 2PP estimate 61.3 to ALP.
Indian-born Australians ALP 45 L-NP 39 Grn 8 ON 2 IND/other 6 My 2PP estimate 55.9 to ALP.
www.roymorgan.com/findings/100...
Word has been circulating that the AEC are not going to redo the 2PP in Bradfield so we will never officially know whether Labor really won the 2PP there or not.
October 31, 2025 at 9:22 AM
Word has been circulating that the AEC are not going to redo the 2PP in Bradfield so we will never officially know whether Labor really won the 2PP there or not.