Bayes’ Theorem works… until market microstructures shift. Then it’s like using an old map in a new city—misleading & dangerous. Trends fail in chaotic systems; adaptability wins. Energy traders, rethink your priors!
#TradingTruths #AdaptOrBust
#EnergyTrading
Read more:
arxiv.org/abs/2212.03471
#TradingTruths #AdaptOrBust
#EnergyTrading
Read more:
arxiv.org/abs/2212.03471
Bayesian Forecasting in Economics and Finance: A Modern Review
The Bayesian statistical paradigm provides a principled and coherent approach to probabilistic forecasting. Uncertainty about all unknowns that characterize any forecasting problem -- model, parameter...
arxiv.org
December 15, 2024 at 12:47 PM
Bayes’ Theorem works… until market microstructures shift. Then it’s like using an old map in a new city—misleading & dangerous. Trends fail in chaotic systems; adaptability wins. Energy traders, rethink your priors!
#TradingTruths #AdaptOrBust
#EnergyTrading
Read more:
arxiv.org/abs/2212.03471
#TradingTruths #AdaptOrBust
#EnergyTrading
Read more:
arxiv.org/abs/2212.03471