#Autocratizers
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clearlight.bsky.social
"The ten new autocratizers identified in 2025 are Cambodia, Croatia, Italy, Kuwait, Madagascar, Slovakia, Slovenia, Togo, the United Kingdom, and the United States"
V-Dem report finds global democracy is back at 1978 levels
V-Dem’s 2026 assessment finds that autocracies outnumber democracies by 92 to 87. With 44 countries worsening and 18 improving, the current wave of autocratization is continuing.
www.democracywithoutborders.org
October 30, 2026 at 12:23 PM
amari.bsky.social
Looking at this graph from the recent V-DEM report gives some perspective of the steep decline in democratic freedoms in India that is part of the backdrop to the unrest boiling over there now.

v-dem.net/documents/75...
Screenshot from linked V-DEM report showing India’s precipitous slide from an electoral democracy around 2007 to an electoral autocracy these days. FIGURE 15. TOP 10 "STAND-ALONE" AUTOCRATIZERS, 2025 TABLE 4 Magnetide of Decline Shows India is third highest decline after Hungary and Serbia and right above the United States. #politics #democracy #fascism #authoritarianism
October 16, 2026 at 9:52 PM
ralfwittenbrink.bsky.social
Autokratie abdriften als Ungarn und die Türkei.
„Unsere Daten zu den USA reichen bis ins Jahr 1789 zurück. Was wir jetzt erleben, ist der schwerwiegendste Rückgang der Demokratie, den das Land je gesehen hat“, sagt Staffan Lindberg, Gründer des Instituts.“

„Das Tempo, mit dem
FIGURE 23. USA VS. PROMINENT AUTOCRATIZERS OF THE "THIRD WAVE"
March 17, 2026 at 1:00 PM
maartenpvink.bsky.social
But still leaves the reference to Portugal as one of the countries "very close to becoming autocratizers". Lots of things you can say about Portuguese politics, but that really does not make sense.

Does this have to do with a relatively low score on EGALITARIAN COMPONENT INDEX (ECI)?

I'm puzzled.
March 18, 2026 at 1:26 PM
maartenpvink.bsky.social
I think @vdeminstitute.bsky.social is doing absolutely terrific work. But classifying Portugal 🇵🇹 as an 'Electoral Democracy' (ED), rather than liberal democracy, and putting it on the watchlist of countries 'very close to becoming autocratizers', frankly, makes no sense.
Portugal classified as ED (Electoral Democracy) Democracy Report 2026 Watchlist y 8 countries are on the Watchlist as potential autocratizers. y 3 countries are on the Watchlist as potential democratizers. The Democracy Report Watchlist initiative identifies countries that the international community could decide to pay special attention. These are countries exhibiting clear portents of becoming autocra- tizers or democratizers – they have come at least three-quarters of the way (0.075) towards the ERT threshold of 0.1 on the EDI to be officially in an episode. Such countries are marked with dark red and dark blue shaded areas in Figure A1. The eight countries that are very close to becoming autocratizers are: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Namibia, Portugal, Russia, Sierra Leone, Sudan, and Vanuatu. Three of the eight countries are new on the Watchlist this year: Bulgaria, Portugal, and Vanuatu. Of them, Vanuatu experienced the second-largest one-year drop in 2025 (after the USA). Sierra Leone and Sudan were listed as autocratizers last year and are only marginally below the threshold now. Cyprus, Namibia, and Russia were on the Watchlist already last year (see Democracy Report 2025). Three countries that are bordering to becoming democratizers are: Chad, Gabon, and South Korea. All three countries are poten- tial U-turns. Of those, South Korea is the closest one to qualify as a democratizer after featuring as an autocratizer only one year ago. Chad and Gabon have re-installed elections and civilian-led govern- ments after military coups in 2021 and 2023, respectively. The Watchlist additionally identifies so-called “near misses” – coun- tries that are at least halfway towards becoming autocratizers or democ- ratizers (changes are between 0.05 and 0.1 on the EDI scale from 0 to 1). “Near miss” autocratizers are marked with the red shaded area and “near miss” democratizers with the blue shaded area (see Figure A1). There are 24 “near misses” of autocratization and eight “near misses” of democratization, in 2025. 
March 18, 2026 at 1:26 PM
Anti-Democratic Trends Mean 65% of CEE Citizens Now Live in Electoral Autocracies: Report
Among the new ‘autocratizers’ are Croatia, Slovakia and Slovenia, says report compiled by V-Dem Institute in Sweden.
balkaninsight.com
March 17, 2026 at 1:49 PM
resiliencesci.bsky.social
world is strongly tilted towards autocratization

"The figure compares each country’s level of democracy in 2025 with the level it had at the start of its current episode; the size of each country’s bubble is proportional to its population size"

www.v-dem.net/documents/75...
Figure 12 visualizes the heavy tilting of the world towards autocratization. The figure compares each country’s level of democracy in 2025 with the level it had at the start of its current episode; the size of each country’s bubble is proportional to its population size.Countries above the diagonal line are the 18 democratizers, countries below are the 44 autocratizers. Among the democratizers (above the diagonal line), Brazil is by farthe largest one in terms of population size, followed by Thailand andPoland. All three are U-Turns, meaning that they are recovering from autocratization of the last decade, and restoring their initial levels of democracy. Other countries undergoing democratization, and especially “stand-alone” democratizers, tend to be relatively small countries in terms of population. For comparison, the share of the world population living in all “stand-alone” democratizers is only 0.005% –about 40 million people. In contrast, many of the autocratizers (below the diagonal line)are countries with large populations, such as India, Indonesia,Mexico, Pakistan, the UK, and the USA. Many of these countries are influential regional or global powers, who can influence the future of their regions and shape international politics.
March 17, 2026 at 2:30 PM
paulrosenberg.bsky.social
This dramatically accelerates South Korea's reversal of its previous democratization. V-Dem describes this as a "bell turn" & last year still classified S. Korea as a democracy, but... Scariest thing: If Trump decides S. Korea should be his short-term model for his N. Korea goal.
“Bell-turns” can be thought of as cases of “failed democratization,” or re-autocratization. They are perhaps of particular interest for understanding vulnerabilities of democratization processes and could be studied in-depth for that purpose. We provide only brief descriptions of these cases here. Eight of the top 10 “bell-turn” autocratizers were democracies at some point during their episode: Armenia, Burkina Faso, El Salvador, Indonesia, Libya, Mali, Niger, and South Korea. After autocratization set in, only three of them – Armenia, Indonesia, and South Korea – remain democracies as of 2023. Out of the five where democracy broke down, three – Burkina Faso, Libya, and Mali – have become closed autocracies. The “survival rate” among democracies undergoing the bell-turn type of autocratization turns out to be about the same as for the stand-alone autocratization processes discussed above.
December 3, 2024 at 2:53 PM
fabioangiolillo.bsky.social
Future ideas:

What actors move first in responding to autocratizers’ attacks? It could be that the presence of autocratizers' legitimization rhetoric can signal potential legal changes and violence on the horizon, triggering reactions that could strengthen democratic institutions.
June 4, 2025 at 6:57 AM
fabioangiolillo.bsky.social
𝐌𝐚𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐚𝐰𝐚𝐲:

Autocratizers face a dilemma on the 𝒕𝒊𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒈 in which to change repression from manipulative to openly coercive aimed at stabilizing the regime. This is a fragile moment that can transform autocratization into a stable autocracy. If autocratizers succeed, stable autocracy is likely.
June 4, 2025 at 6:57 AM
fabioangiolillo.bsky.social
1️⃣ autocratizers can develop a legitimization rhetoric to stir support in their favour.

2️⃣ the executive may start legal engineering to adapt the rule of law towards their interests.

3️⃣ they can recur to coercive control by using governmental apparatuses against defiant opposition
June 4, 2025 at 6:57 AM
fabioangiolillo.bsky.social
🚨New publication!

By now, we know 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 democratic institutions autocratizers undermine, yet we (w/ Gorazd Ordanoski) ask:

𝑯𝒐𝒘 do they attack them?

We present three sequential repressive steps:
1️⃣ legitimization rhetoric
2️⃣ legal engineering
3️⃣ coercive control

🔓🧵
www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....
Patterns of incumbents’ repression during autocratization
How do incumbents attack accountability during autocratization? The literature focuses on what democratic institutions autocratizers undermine, yet incumbents’ steps in attacking accountability mea...
www.tandfonline.com
June 4, 2025 at 6:57 AM
ajsdecepida.bsky.social
{𝙖𝙅𝙎𝘿} My Notes on, Audit of, and Triangulation of the Report… follows ⤵
{𝙖𝙅𝙎𝘿} My Notes on, Audit of, and Triangulation of the Report… Vance’s intervention JD Vance did not merely signal sympathy for Viktor Orbán. He went to Budapest in the final days before Hungary’s election, Said he wanted to help Orbán, Then described accusations of U.S. interference as “darkly ironic” while admitting that such a visit by an American vice-president was unprecedented. Reuters independently confirmed the core conduct: Vance publicly backed Orbán and accused the European Union of meddling while standing beside him in Budapest. By any normal political standard, that was foreign intervention in a live election campaign.1,2,4 Why the timing mattered This did not happen in a safe, ceremonial campaign environment. Orbán was facing the most serious threat of his long rule, and a Median projection based on five polls suggested Péter Magyar’s Tisza party could even win a two-thirds parliamentary majority. That polling context is why the visit looked less like ideological tourism and more like last-minute reinforcement for an incumbent in trouble.1,5 The Russian shadow over the visit The political meaning of Vance’s visit became sharper because it unfolded alongside fresh reporting on Orbán’s ties to Moscow: Bloomberg reported that it had obtained a Hungarian government transcript of a 17-Oct-2025 call in which Orbán told Vladimir Putin, “I am at your service,” and Reuters relayed that report while making clear that Reuters had not independently verified the transcript. That distinction matters. The reported call is serious and relevant, but it does not carry the same evidentiary weight as Vance’s own public conduct, which unfolded in full view.3,6 The same caution applies to other Moscow-facing revelations around Budapest. Reuters reported leaked audio in which Hungarian foreign minister Péter Szijjártó appeared to offer Sergei Lavrov an EU-related document on Ukraine, while again noting that Reuters could not independently verify the recordings. Even so, the cumulative picture is difficult to dismiss. Separate leaks from different moments all point toward unusual Hungarian willingness to be useful to Russian interests inside a period of sharp confrontation between the European Union and Moscow.7 The broader record This episode landed in a country already under sustained criticism for democratic backsliding and corruption. The European Commission’s 2025 rule-of-law report on Hungary said there had been no progress in building a robust track record on high-level corruption cases, that no Recovery and Resilience funds could be disbursed until all “super milestones” were met, that no progress had been made in strengthening the functional independence of the media regulator, and that pressure on journalists had increased. These were not campaign talking points but institutional findings published before the final election-week drama.9 The wider democracy and corruption picture points the same way. V-Dem’s 2026 Democracy Report placed Hungary among the top 10 “stand-alone” autocratizers in 2025. Transparency International Hungary said the country remained the most corrupt member state in the European Union for a fourth consecutive year. The Center for the Study of Democracy reported that Hungary’s reliance on Russian crude rose from 61% of imports in 2021 to 93% in 2025. Taken together, those findings make Orbán’s claim to be defending neutral sovereignty look far less convincing than his allies suggest.10‑12 Limits and complications There is still a real evidentiary boundary here. The most explosive Moscow-related material is leak-based, and that means provenance, completeness, and timing all matter. Reuters reported Kremlin claims that some forces inside the European Union were helping Orbán’s rivals and that publication of the Bloomberg transcript was intended to damage him before the vote. That is plausible as a claim about political timing. Damaging information is often released for maximum effect.8 But that complication does not rescue Vance’s position or erase the central story. In the reporting reviewed here, allegations of European Union or Ukrainian interference remained assertions and accusations. Vance’s intervention, by contrast, was public, direct, and admitted. Even if the timing of the leaks was tactical, the visible facts remain the same: a foreign vice-president arrived days before a pivotal election, openly tried to bolster the incumbent, and then denied that this amounted to interference.1,2,4,8 Interim Assessment The strongest defensible conclusion is still severe. Vance’s conduct was overt electioneering on Orbán’s behalf. The Moscow-related leak stories did not create that fact, but they deepened its significance by placing the intervention beside fresh allegations of unusual Hungarian deference to Russian interests. Some of the leak-driven details remain unresolved and should be treated with caution. The hypocrisy at the centre of the episode does not require any such caution. It was public, immediate, and independently corroborated.1,4,6,7,9‑12 Documents Consulted: 1 Ashifa Kassam, “JD Vance claims US is not interfering in Hungary election”, The Guardian, 08-Apr-2026, – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/08/jd-vance-dismisses-claims-us-interfering-hungarian-election-budapest-viktor-orban 2 Ashifa Kassam, “JD Vance accuses EU of ‘interference’ as he visits Hungary to help Orbán win election”, The Guardian, 07-Apr-2026, – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/07/jd-vance-eu-interference-hungary-election-viktor-orban 3 Ashifa Kassam, “Viktor Orbán told Putin ‘I am at your service’ in October phone call”, The Guardian, 07-Apr-2026, – https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/07/viktor-orban-told-putin-i-am-at-your-service-in-october-phonecall 4 Reuters, “Vance says EU is meddling in Hungary’s election as he backs Orban in Budapest”, Reuters, 07-Apr-2026, – https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/vice-president-vance-visits-hungary-boost-orban-ahead-pivotal-election-2026-04-07/ 5 Reuters, “Hungary’s Tisza party seen winning two-thirds majority in parliament, Median projection shows”, Reuters, 08-Apr-2026, – https://www.reuters.com/world/hungarys-tisza-party-seen-winning-two-thirds-majority-parliament-median-2026-04-08/
April 8, 2026 at 11:43 PM
rfrbrghs.bsky.social
Importantly, however, we as Europeans should closely monitor what is happening *on our own continent*:

@vdeminstitute.bsky.social: "Among the new autocratizers are five European countries: Croatia, Italy, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the UK" bsky.app/profile/chkn...
chknutsen.bsky.social Carl Henrik Knutsen @chknutsen.bsky.social · Mar 17
V-Dem v.16 is now released, w. updated scores for 2025.

Most countries remain stable from 2024, but some clear improvements (on diff’t democracy indices), incl. S. Korea, Sri Lanka & Mauritius.

Largest declines came, by far, in the US.

This figure shows 10-yr changes on the Liberal Dem. index.
March 17, 2026 at 8:22 AM
themodsisyphus.bsky.social
As media is controlled, since institutional capture that has already taken place through cowardice & cravenness in so many US orgs (e.g. changes to DEI policy, anti trans policies, anti-lgbtqia+, etc.), democratic structures will crumble.

Democratic backsliding is difficult to stop./4
rb.gy/y7iyhe
Since 2018, India Has Remained an Electoral Autocracy: V-Dems 2024 Report - The Wire
India also lists in the top 10 standalone autocratizers in 2023, per the report titled Democracy Winning and Losing at the Ballot.
rb.gy
February 1, 2026 at 5:38 AM
peterhowitt.bsky.social
Watchlist Autocratizers: Slovakia, Slovenia, and Namibia show significant declines. Slovakia's rapid decline is due to Prime Minister Fico's actions undermining democratic institutions.
Watchlist Democratizers: Czechia, Guatemala, and Malaysia.
Figure 23 plots countries that are identified as potential autocratizers (red) or potential democratizers (blue), as of 2024. Light red and light blue areas mark all “near miss” cases, whereas dark red and dark blue areas mark countries that enter the Democracy Report “Watchlist”. “Near-misses” are identified by using the standard ERT methodology but with a lower threshold (i.e., 0.05 instead of 0.1 on the EDI), while “Watchlist” is reserved for countries that are above 0.075 threshold. Changes below 0.05 on the EDI (grey area) are treated as noise in data.
March 13, 2025 at 10:08 AM
marcxsmith.bsky.social
The UK is heading in a similar direction
3. Autocratizing Countries Nearly a quarter of the world’s nations are now on the list of autocratizers: 44 countries. 44 autocratizers divide into 24 stand-alone autocratizers and 20 Bell-turns. 10 new autocratizers identified in 2025. Among the new autocratizers are five European countries: Croatia, Italy, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the UK. Media censorship remains the most common tactic among autocratizing governments with 32 countries (73%) resorting to it. Repression of civil society has surged to affect 30 autocratizing countries (68%).
March 21, 2026 at 10:51 AM
gabrielagreilinger.com
An EU member as the top autocratiser based on the extent of democratic erosion:

"Hungary ranks top of all 45 autocratizers in terms of magnitude of change and is also the top autocratizer of the last 25 years of the “third wave of autocratization."
"Hungary ranks top of all 45 autocratizers in terms of magnitude of change (see Table 4) and is also the top autocratizer of the last 25 years of the “third wave of autocratization”. Hungary was a liberal democracy in 2009, before Viktor Orbán and his anti-pluralist9 and Christian-nationalist Fidesz party came to power. Once in power, they initiated incremental rolling back of checks and balances in a textbook example of contemporary autocratization. A series of well-documented derailments of democracy10 led to electoral autocracy in 2018. Fidesz passed the “Protection of Sovereignty Act” in 2023, allowing for arbitrary scrutiny and unlimited access to personal data. Hungary records a seventh year as an electoral autocracy with 2024."
March 13, 2025 at 11:30 AM
foodnpolitics.bsky.social
“The USA joins the list of autocratizers under President Donald J. Trump’s administration. In only one year, the USA already ranks fourth in magnitude of deteriorations – just behind the top three most flagrant cases who have been autocratizing for over a decade.”
March 18, 2026 at 1:25 AM
mgpolitis.eurosky.social
Greece in excellent company

TOP 10 “STAND-ALONE” AUTOCRATIZERS, 2025 v-dem.net
March 19, 2026 at 7:28 AM
euroconcern.bsky.social
On the watchlist of potential autocratizers, we find *five* EU member states: Spain, Portugal, Lithuania, Cyprus and Bulgaria; as well as two candidates: Bosnia and Albania; and one potential [re-]candidate: Iceland.

Russia is already an autocracy but it's at risk of autocratizing even more.
March 18, 2026 at 7:19 PM
euroconcern.bsky.social
Only 18 countries are democratizing (Brazil and Poland stand out as the largest democratizers), whereas 44 countries are now autocratizing - this includes European countries that have now joined the autocratizers list: Croatia, Italy, Slovakia, Slovenia, and the UK.
March 18, 2026 at 7:05 PM
cameronconaway.bsky.social
"The U.S. democracy is currently in a much faster deterioration process than any other democracy in modern times."

The report: v-dem.net

#democracy
An infographic featuring a line graph comparing the rate of autocratization in the United States to five other countries: Hungary, Russia, Türkiye, India, and Serbia. The graph, titled 'USA VS. OTHER PROMINENT AUTOCRATIZERS', has a horizontal axis for 'Years since Start of Autocratization' and a vertical axis for 'Magnitude of Decline on the LDI' (Liberal Democracy Index), from 0.00 to -0.50. The lines, each representing a country and starting at (0, 0.00), show a downward trend. The main finding highlighted is that the USA (represented by a solid black line) experienced the steepest initial drop in its index, plunging to -0.22 within the first two years and then stabilizing. In contrast, other countries like Russia and Türkiye saw more gradual but significantly deeper long-term declines, with Russia's index dropping below -0.40 after more than a decade. Other countries like India, Hungary, and Serbia show intermediate, less extreme rates of decline over time. The bottom of the infographic cites information from the V-Dem Dataset v16 and the V-Dem Institute Democracy Report 2026, with a download link.
March 22, 2026 at 5:33 PM
chudonew.bsky.social
Trump’s Attacks on Press Freedom Are Paving the Way for Authoritarianism

“If autocratization starts in a democracy, the probability of surviving is very low.

The favorite weapon of autocratizers is media censorship.”

www.vanityfair.com/news/story/t...
Trump’s Attacks on Press Freedom Are Paving the Way for Authoritarianism
A leading global democracy research institute says democratic “backsliding” must be turned around quickly—warning that after 10 years, recovery is “close to impossible.”
www.vanityfair.com
March 27, 2025 at 1:00 PM
chudonew.bsky.social
Trump’s Attacks on Press Freedom Are Paving the Way for Authoritarianism

“If autocratization starts in a democracy, the probability of surviving is very low.

The favorite weapon of autocratizers is media censorship.”

www.vanityfair.com/news/story/t...
Trump’s Attacks on Press Freedom Are Paving the Way for Authoritarianism
A leading global democracy research institute says democratic “backsliding” must be turned around quickly—warning that after 10 years, recovery is “close to impossible.”
www.vanityfair.com
March 27, 2025 at 1:00 PM