FEDWATCH: “.. The steep discounts of traded BDCs to their NAV .. imply 10%-15% defaults with 40%-60% recovery rates. Markets are not pricing in a major private credit crash .. but the illiquidity risk across all BDCs suggests that markdowns in private credit pools are on the horizon ..” 👀
$OWL
$OWL
November 23, 2025 at 5:11 PM
FEDWATCH: “.. The steep discounts of traded BDCs to their NAV .. imply 10%-15% defaults with 40%-60% recovery rates. Markets are not pricing in a major private credit crash .. but the illiquidity risk across all BDCs suggests that markdowns in private credit pools are on the horizon ..” 👀
$OWL
$OWL
(Reuters) - Moody's Ratings on Tuesday revised
its outlook on U.S. business development companies (BDCs) to
negative from stable, citing rising redemption pressures, higher
leverage and weakening access to funding markets.
@reuters.com
its outlook on U.S. business development companies (BDCs) to
negative from stable, citing rising redemption pressures, higher
leverage and weakening access to funding markets.
@reuters.com
April 7, 2026 at 3:46 PM
(Reuters) - Moody's Ratings on Tuesday revised
its outlook on U.S. business development companies (BDCs) to
negative from stable, citing rising redemption pressures, higher
leverage and weakening access to funding markets.
@reuters.com
its outlook on U.S. business development companies (BDCs) to
negative from stable, citing rising redemption pressures, higher
leverage and weakening access to funding markets.
@reuters.com
Für HiSolutions bin beim Bonner Dialog für Cybersicherheit #BDCS mit dabei und kuratiere die Veranstaltungen mit.
Im 24. BDCS zu Desinformation wird in der Universität Bonn am Campus Poppelsdorf am Do, 26.3. Sönke Marahrens die Keynote halten.
Im Podiumsgespräch danach sind dabei:
...
Im 24. BDCS zu Desinformation wird in der Universität Bonn am Campus Poppelsdorf am Do, 26.3. Sönke Marahrens die Keynote halten.
Im Podiumsgespräch danach sind dabei:
...
March 25, 2026 at 8:31 AM
Für HiSolutions bin beim Bonner Dialog für Cybersicherheit #BDCS mit dabei und kuratiere die Veranstaltungen mit.
Im 24. BDCS zu Desinformation wird in der Universität Bonn am Campus Poppelsdorf am Do, 26.3. Sönke Marahrens die Keynote halten.
Im Podiumsgespräch danach sind dabei:
...
Im 24. BDCS zu Desinformation wird in der Universität Bonn am Campus Poppelsdorf am Do, 26.3. Sönke Marahrens die Keynote halten.
Im Podiumsgespräch danach sind dabei:
...
🚨 Maybe the best Venn diagram of BDC holdings you'll ever see.
www.ft.com/content/c60b...
www.ft.com/content/c60b...
May 5, 2026 at 9:05 AM
🚨 Maybe the best Venn diagram of BDC holdings you'll ever see.
www.ft.com/content/c60b...
www.ft.com/content/c60b...
I’m telling ya man…the whole thing’s fucked. Got BDCs leveraged up six times their bullshit worth made up of loans to SaaS companies you’ve never heard of bought while everyone was fucked up on hopium in 2021…private credit’s dying and people don’t even see how bad it is yet. They don’t wanna…
March 4, 2026 at 5:52 AM
I’m telling ya man…the whole thing’s fucked. Got BDCs leveraged up six times their bullshit worth made up of loans to SaaS companies you’ve never heard of bought while everyone was fucked up on hopium in 2021…private credit’s dying and people don’t even see how bad it is yet. They don’t wanna…
‘The majority of publicly traded BDCs — the visible part of the private credit market — have turned unprofitable due to falling asset values and rising costs in the latest sign of pressure building in this highly leveraged corner of finance.‘ www.reuters.com/legal/transa...
July 2, 2026 at 6:51 PM
‘The majority of publicly traded BDCs — the visible part of the private credit market — have turned unprofitable due to falling asset values and rising costs in the latest sign of pressure building in this highly leveraged corner of finance.‘ www.reuters.com/legal/transa...
S&P Global just reported that nearly 30% of total loans held by Business Development Companies (EG: Blue Owl, Hercules, etc) are in software or affiliated sectors. The media is only going to take this seriously when there's a major default at a big leveraged firm like Zendesk (just an example)
March 17, 2026 at 7:52 PM
S&P Global just reported that nearly 30% of total loans held by Business Development Companies (EG: Blue Owl, Hercules, etc) are in software or affiliated sectors. The media is only going to take this seriously when there's a major default at a big leveraged firm like Zendesk (just an example)
🚨 BDCs manage around $500bn of private credit. How exposed are they to AI-disruption?
Lots and lots of cool charts.
www.ft.com/content/3f88...
Lots and lots of cool charts.
www.ft.com/content/3f88...
February 10, 2026 at 2:18 PM
🚨 BDCs manage around $500bn of private credit. How exposed are they to AI-disruption?
Lots and lots of cool charts.
www.ft.com/content/3f88...
Lots and lots of cool charts.
www.ft.com/content/3f88...
You may not have heard of BDCs — leveraged vehicles for US private credit — but they're big and are growing fast. Are they a systemic risk? What could go wrong?
on.ft.com/46IV6zU
on.ft.com/46IV6zU
Inside the big fat BDC boom
Making loadsamoney out of private credit
on.ft.com
September 19, 2025 at 5:55 AM
You may not have heard of BDCs — leveraged vehicles for US private credit — but they're big and are growing fast. Are they a systemic risk? What could go wrong?
on.ft.com/46IV6zU
on.ft.com/46IV6zU
“The AI Bubble” I think will be seen as a little side-feature of the private credit bubble. Even then, the conditions aren’t quite the same, reserves seem to be in a better state.
Private Credit and BDCs are a very real problem, and it’s not clear how big a problem it is.
bsky.app/profile/pkdt...
Private Credit and BDCs are a very real problem, and it’s not clear how big a problem it is.
bsky.app/profile/pkdt...
I didn’t think we’d have two great recessions in my life but hey alas look here I’m fucked again.
April 2, 2026 at 4:46 AM
“The AI Bubble” I think will be seen as a little side-feature of the private credit bubble. Even then, the conditions aren’t quite the same, reserves seem to be in a better state.
Private Credit and BDCs are a very real problem, and it’s not clear how big a problem it is.
bsky.app/profile/pkdt...
Private Credit and BDCs are a very real problem, and it’s not clear how big a problem it is.
bsky.app/profile/pkdt...
The most-chilling part of this piece was the study from Moody's that found that nearly half of all BDCs (usually either private equity or private credit funds) were junk grade or speculative grade investments, despite most acting like they're investment-grade.
www.wheresyoured.at/hatersguide-...
www.wheresyoured.at/hatersguide-...
April 17, 2026 at 6:14 PM
The most-chilling part of this piece was the study from Moody's that found that nearly half of all BDCs (usually either private equity or private credit funds) were junk grade or speculative grade investments, despite most acting like they're investment-grade.
www.wheresyoured.at/hatersguide-...
www.wheresyoured.at/hatersguide-...
Look at the last part of the chart (green box/arrow). It's the same chart as IGV Or even the BDCs.
Sorta makes sense
Sorta makes sense
February 25, 2026 at 2:18 PM
Look at the last part of the chart (green box/arrow). It's the same chart as IGV Or even the BDCs.
Sorta makes sense
Sorta makes sense
China’s forgotten consumers ft.trib.al/YovJuTF | opinion
China’s forgotten consumers
Plus more on private credit and BDCs
ft.trib.al
March 12, 2026 at 7:03 AM
China’s forgotten consumers ft.trib.al/YovJuTF | opinion
So is private credit + BDCs getting eaten because of all the AI deal hype cooling?
February 3, 2026 at 8:15 PM
So is private credit + BDCs getting eaten because of all the AI deal hype cooling?
Moody's cuts outlook on US BDCs to 'negative' on redemption pressure, rising leverage reut.rs/4mcjWhL
Moody's cuts outlook on US BDCs to 'negative' on redemption pressure, rising leverage
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday revised its outlook on U.S. business development companies to negative from stable, citing rising redemption pressures, higher leverage and weakening access to funding markets.
reut.rs
April 7, 2026 at 1:10 PM
Moody's cuts outlook on US BDCs to 'negative' on redemption pressure, rising leverage reut.rs/4mcjWhL
Yeah I have never been more sure something was up with the quality of the underlying assets of private credit. This is as close to a “my shirt that says we’re nothing like the banks during the great financial crisis” tweet as we’ve had yet
April 10, 2026 at 3:09 AM
Yeah I have never been more sure something was up with the quality of the underlying assets of private credit. This is as close to a “my shirt that says we’re nothing like the banks during the great financial crisis” tweet as we’ve had yet
‘Pimco’s measure puts the “shadow” default rate for BDCs at 19%, up from about 14% in 2022, includIng what’s called “bad PIK.” The borrowings have become a flashpoint with some contending it counts as performing while others say it’s used to mask deterioration.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
Private Credit Defaults Are 1%, 6% or 19%, Depending Who You Ask
Either private credit has a serious default problem, or barely one at all — it all depends on who’s counting.
www.bloomberg.com
September 17, 2026 at 4:02 PM
‘Pimco’s measure puts the “shadow” default rate for BDCs at 19%, up from about 14% in 2022, includIng what’s called “bad PIK.” The borrowings have become a flashpoint with some contending it counts as performing while others say it’s used to mask deterioration.’ www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
BDCs have come from nowhere to manage c$500bn. Around half is borrowed money.
September 19, 2025 at 6:15 AM
BDCs have come from nowhere to manage c$500bn. Around half is borrowed money.
Nor today. It’s not an asset liability mismatch, you just don’t like the terms you signed up to. If you add 1) 5% quarterly redemptions and 2) required dividends you are quickly getting to a 20-30% annual payout from private BDCs.
March 6, 2026 at 9:07 AM
Nor today. It’s not an asset liability mismatch, you just don’t like the terms you signed up to. If you add 1) 5% quarterly redemptions and 2) required dividends you are quickly getting to a 20-30% annual payout from private BDCs.
PitchBook estimates BDCs’ software exposure at around 18% @soberlook #privatecredit $IGV thedailyshot.com/sub...
February 5, 2026 at 6:01 PM
PitchBook estimates BDCs’ software exposure at around 18% @soberlook #privatecredit $IGV thedailyshot.com/sub...
‘Moody's Ratings on Tuesday revised its outlook on U.S. business development companies (BDCs) to negative from stable, citing rising redemption pressures, higher leverage and weakening access to funding markets.’ www.reuters.com/business/fin...
Moody's cuts outlook on US BDCs to 'negative' on redemption pressure, rising leverage
Moody's Ratings on Tuesday revised its outlook on U.S. business development companies (BDCs) to negative from stable, citing rising redemption pressures, higher leverage and weakening access to fundi...
www.reuters.com
April 7, 2026 at 5:38 PM
‘Moody's Ratings on Tuesday revised its outlook on U.S. business development companies (BDCs) to negative from stable, citing rising redemption pressures, higher leverage and weakening access to funding markets.’ www.reuters.com/business/fin...
Did you see this week JPM piece on software in private BDCs? Good succinct overview
February 3, 2026 at 7:43 PM
Did you see this week JPM piece on software in private BDCs? Good succinct overview
BofA: BDCs have the highest exposure to software, small caps, and HY are more insulated
February 11, 2026 at 12:56 PM
BofA: BDCs have the highest exposure to software, small caps, and HY are more insulated
Someone’s probably gonna do well buying assets out of BDCs and putting them into a CLO for term, non-mtm financing
February 25, 2026 at 12:56 AM
Someone’s probably gonna do well buying assets out of BDCs and putting them into a CLO for term, non-mtm financing