1/3 As cesses and surcharges rise, discretionary transfers expand, and conditional schemes proliferate, States face growing uncertainty in planning public spending and investment. What looks like a technical budget issue is fast becoming a macroeconomic and institutional risk.
#Budget2026 #BPIBudget

1/2 The real test of Budget 2026 isn’t the deficit number or capex headline. It’s whether India’s economic institutions are ready for sustained volatility—from tariff shocks and AI disruption to climate transition and an informal workforce.

#Budget2026 #BPIBudget #EconomicStatecraft #IndiaMacro

2/3 Union Budget 2026 can change this by treating agri-MRV as public infrastructure and empowering FPOs and SHGs to aggregate farmer action.

#BPIBudget #CarbonMarkets #ClimateFinance

The Budget cannot outspend Big Tech on compute, but it can shape demand, lower adoption barriers, and steer public spending toward areas where India can build real AI capability.

Read Kunal Tyagi’s column for BasisPoint 👇

#Budget2026 #BPIBudget #AIpolicy #IndiaAI

1/3 This Budget is about more than numbers. The upcoming fiscal year could mark India’s shift from post-pandemic repair to a durable, growth-led fiscal framework.

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1/2 To fix India's manufacturing conundrum, the upcoming Union Budget must pivot from providing piece-meal subsidies to a systemic reduction in the cost of production, focusing specifically on logistics, energy, and competitive exchange rates.

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1/3 Despite a ₹50-trillion erosion in market capitalisation since last year’s peak, fiscal math leaves little space for capital-market sops. Cuts in STT, capital gains tax or dividend taxation look unlikely as tax buoyancy weakens and currency pressures rise.

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1/3 As Union Budget 2026–27 approaches, economics and electoral arithmetic are colliding. With key state elections ahead—many in difficult terrain for the BJP—policy announcements risk doubling as political signalling.

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2/3 Budget 2026 is the moment to pivot—from chasing megawatts to building reliability. That means firm power (including nuclear), grid-scale storage, faster transmission build-out, AI-enabled grid management, and real DISCOM reform.

#Budget2026 #BPIBudget #EnergyTransition

1/4 India’s climate challenge is often framed as a choice between long-term net-zero goals and short-term clean air. That framing is misleading.

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1/2 India’s growth ambitions and security priorities are converging on a single constraint: access to critical minerals.

What once looked like a distant supply issue now sits at the heart of the energy transition, manufacturing strategy and defence planning.

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2/2 Read @ssmumbai.bsky.social’s column for BasisPoint:
When Private Credit Becomes Financial Morphine

#Budget2026 #BPIBudget #PrivateCredit #FinancialStability #IndiaMacro

1/2 Five years after consolidation, India’s public sector banks are safer and better capitalised, but not meaningfully more competitive or bold in credit delivery. Bigger balance sheets haven’t created global champions.

#Budget2026 #BPIBudget #PublicSectorBanks #BankMergers

1/5 India cracked the iPhone code with $50B in exports, proving we can execute at scale. Now policy wants to replicate that for auto components, targeting $60B by 2030. It won't work the same way.

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1/3 India’s strategic challenge today is not just geopolitical, it is fiscal. As the Centre steadily expands spending into areas constitutionally assigned to states, resources for core national priorities—defence, advanced technology and R&D—are being squeezed.

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1/2 The real test for Budget 2026 will be whether it recognises state borrowing as the fulcrum of the yield equation. With ₹30.5 trillion of bond supply looming, the more pressing question is whether it makes sense for the Centre to borrow on behalf of states.

#Budget2026 #BPIBudget