A reminder: The base rate fallacy.
The number or percentage of infected persons does not allow conclusions about vaccine effectiveness unless the exposure and size of parental populations are known. In biology, confounders, such as immune function, also play a role.
It is far more complicated.
The number or percentage of infected persons does not allow conclusions about vaccine effectiveness unless the exposure and size of parental populations are known. In biology, confounders, such as immune function, also play a role.
It is far more complicated.
April 10, 2025 at 2:20 AM
#BaseRateFallacy
#Vaccines
#Epidemiology
#PublicHealthScience #SharedFacts for:
#Perception #Understanding #HumanReasoning
#CollectiveBehavior #GoodPolicy #CommunityProsperity
#Vaccines
#Epidemiology
#PublicHealthScience #SharedFacts for:
#Perception #Understanding #HumanReasoning
#CollectiveBehavior #GoodPolicy #CommunityProsperity
A reminder: The base rate fallacy.
The number or percentage of infected persons does not allow conclusions about vaccine effectiveness unless the exposure and size of parental populations are known. In biology, confounders, such as immune function, also play a role.
It is far more complicated.
The number or percentage of infected persons does not allow conclusions about vaccine effectiveness unless the exposure and size of parental populations are known. In biology, confounders, such as immune function, also play a role.
It is far more complicated.
April 10, 2025 at 2:47 PM
Although I feel the situation has improved in the past 2 years, this little illustration I did still holds true.
#BaseRateFallacy #FalseBalance
#MECFS #ChronicIllness #LongCovid
#BaseRateFallacy #FalseBalance
#MECFS #ChronicIllness #LongCovid
October 6, 2023 at 11:10 AM
Although I feel the situation has improved in the past 2 years, this little illustration I did still holds true.
#BaseRateFallacy #FalseBalance
#MECFS #ChronicIllness #LongCovid
#BaseRateFallacy #FalseBalance
#MECFS #ChronicIllness #LongCovid
Yes: “Convenience is a weak argument for overriding fundamental rights, and one unlikely to withstand legal scrutiny.” The police should study the #baseratefallacy
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
UK police forces lobbied to use biased facial recognition technology
Exclusive: System more likely to suggest incorrect matches for images of women and Black people
www.theguardian.com
December 10, 2025 at 9:36 AM
Yes: “Convenience is a weak argument for overriding fundamental rights, and one unlikely to withstand legal scrutiny.” The police should study the #baseratefallacy
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
www.theguardian.com/technology/2...
The base rate fallacy happens when you ignore general statistical information and rely too much on specific details about a single case. Watch the video for more details… #statistics #baseratefallacy #logicalfallacies
August 28, 2026 at 3:28 PM
The base rate fallacy happens when you ignore general statistical information and rely too much on specific details about a single case. Watch the video for more details… #statistics #baseratefallacy #logicalfallacies
You can find the results of our three experiments on the fallacious framing effects of appeals to simplicity at #PSA2022 on Saturday: https://nerdculture.de/@ByrdNick/109320828115342078
Nick Byrd, Ph.D. (@ByrdNick@nerdculture.de)
Another #framingEffect?
In "The Allure of #Simplicity", Jack Justus, Samantha Wakil and I run three #experiments on people's evaluations of explanations.
Merely labeling explanations 'simpler' or 'simplest' made people more vulnerable to the #baseRateFallacy and the #conjunctionFallacy!
Jack and I present our data and conclusions at #PSA2022 on Saturday.
Abstract: https://psa2022.dryfta.com/85-information-for-attendees/news/abstract/public/496/the-allure-of-simplicity-framing-effects-and-theoretical-virtues
#xPhi #PhilSci #CogSci #DecisionScience #Rationality #Epistemology #Psychology #Science #SciComm #Virtue
nerdculture.de
November 7, 2024 at 4:59 PM
You can find the results of our three experiments on the fallacious framing effects of appeals to simplicity at #PSA2022 on Saturday: https://nerdculture.de/@ByrdNick/109320828115342078