new video on the Ice Age glaciers of the Hudson Valley & NYC, Shifting Baselines & Trophic Cascading
November 10, 2026 at 5:58 PM
new video on the Ice Age glaciers of the Hudson Valley & NYC, Shifting Baselines & Trophic Cascading
Damn, I should have gone to this game
I thought it would be expensive but based on the number of seats I can see on the baselines maybe not
I thought it would be expensive but based on the number of seats I can see on the baselines maybe not
November 9, 2026 at 1:09 AM
Damn, I should have gone to this game
I thought it would be expensive but based on the number of seats I can see on the baselines maybe not
I thought it would be expensive but based on the number of seats I can see on the baselines maybe not
we are establishing new baselines from which to judge everyone's minimum efforts moving forward
NEWS: Gov. Gavin Newsom has commuted the death sentences of all 548 people on California’s death row to life without parole.
It is the largest mass commutation in modern U.S. history, about a quarter of the nation’s death row.
It is the largest mass commutation in modern U.S. history, about a quarter of the nation’s death row.
November 5, 2026 at 7:46 PM
we are establishing new baselines from which to judge everyone's minimum efforts moving forward
all this baselines on the raptor, which is understandable if stereotypical, but the other thing is if Gates didn't cancel NGB and then fuck with/slow roll LRS-B B-21 would've been IOC and then some 5 years ago instead of just about to hit the ramp at Ellsworth
November 8, 2026 at 4:15 AM
all this baselines on the raptor, which is understandable if stereotypical, but the other thing is if Gates didn't cancel NGB and then fuck with/slow roll LRS-B B-21 would've been IOC and then some 5 years ago instead of just about to hit the ramp at Ellsworth
The @wmo-global.bsky.social State of the Climate Update 2026 was just released: wmo.int/resources/pu...
"We are supercharging our weather and El Niño will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for" #COP31
"We are supercharging our weather and El Niño will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for" #COP31
November 10, 2026 at 1:13 PM
The @wmo-global.bsky.social State of the Climate Update 2026 was just released: wmo.int/resources/pu...
"We are supercharging our weather and El Niño will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for" #COP31
"We are supercharging our weather and El Niño will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, tropical cyclones, and rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for" #COP31
The authors of a Comment article in Nature put forward three pillars through which science enables democracy: establishing shared factual baselines, aiding trust in institutions and providing tools to adapt policies and organizations in response to changing circumstances. 🧪
How democracy depends on science — and must protect it
Verified information from trusted experts is crucial to help the public and governments navigate rapid changes and increasing complexity.
go.nature.com
November 9, 2026 at 8:06 PM
The authors of a Comment article in Nature put forward three pillars through which science enables democracy: establishing shared factual baselines, aiding trust in institutions and providing tools to adapt policies and organizations in response to changing circumstances. 🧪
THANK YOU!! I love defining baselines and bullshit 🙌
November 7, 2026 at 4:12 AM
THANK YOU!! I love defining baselines and bullshit 🙌
Updated Commission Sheet (Slots Currently Open)
Updated sheet to better match where prices were ending up with requests and added additional baselines for the pixel canvas sizes. Also added more recent commissions as examples across the board. #art #commissions #fanart #horror #illustration
Updated sheet to better match where prices were ending up with requests and added additional baselines for the pixel canvas sizes. Also added more recent commissions as examples across the board. #art #commissions #fanart #horror #illustration
November 8, 2026 at 8:16 PM
Updated Commission Sheet (Slots Currently Open)
Updated sheet to better match where prices were ending up with requests and added additional baselines for the pixel canvas sizes. Also added more recent commissions as examples across the board. #art #commissions #fanart #horror #illustration
Updated sheet to better match where prices were ending up with requests and added additional baselines for the pixel canvas sizes. Also added more recent commissions as examples across the board. #art #commissions #fanart #horror #illustration
they’re both really useful baselines! but “replacement level” is quite poor! you don’t even win 50 games a year in MLB if your team is replev. it’s like 9 wins in the NBA. it’s ~ the MAC if you’re the B1G.
November 10, 2026 at 3:45 PM
they’re both really useful baselines! but “replacement level” is quite poor! you don’t even win 50 games a year in MLB if your team is replev. it’s like 9 wins in the NBA. it’s ~ the MAC if you’re the B1G.
On Nov 4, Jake Grumbach shared G. Elliott Morris's chart to argue DSA did as well as Blue Dogs. Once replies noted DSA was n=7 and the 84-member Progressive Caucus lagged, he pivoted to saying all quant moderation takes fail on within-state baselines, confounding, and SUTVA spillovers.
We need to follow The Golden Path.
November 7, 2026 at 10:19 PM
On Nov 4, Jake Grumbach shared G. Elliott Morris's chart to argue DSA did as well as Blue Dogs. Once replies noted DSA was n=7 and the 84-member Progressive Caucus lagged, he pivoted to saying all quant moderation takes fail on within-state baselines, confounding, and SUTVA spillovers.
More big fat baselines from this week:
Disclosure - The Mechanism
youtu.be/vznXA_9oF5w?...
#RaveYardShift
#RadioFergus
Disclosure - The Mechanism
youtu.be/vznXA_9oF5w?...
#RaveYardShift
#RadioFergus
Disclosure & Friend Within - The Mechanism
YouTube video by SubSoul
youtu.be
November 7, 2026 at 9:32 PM
More big fat baselines from this week:
Disclosure - The Mechanism
youtu.be/vznXA_9oF5w?...
#RaveYardShift
#RadioFergus
Disclosure - The Mechanism
youtu.be/vznXA_9oF5w?...
#RaveYardShift
#RadioFergus
Eric Geller
“The inability to establish baselines is complicating the task of securing these autonomous tools, a new report found.” www.cybersecuritydive.com/news/ai-agen...
“The inability to establish baselines is complicating the task of securing these autonomous tools, a new report found.” www.cybersecuritydive.com/news/ai-agen...
Companies struggle to know what normal looks like for AI agents
The inability to establish baselines is complicating the task of securing these autonomous tools, a new report found.
www.cybersecuritydive.com
November 9, 2026 at 9:51 PM
Eric Geller
“The inability to establish baselines is complicating the task of securing these autonomous tools, a new report found.” www.cybersecuritydive.com/news/ai-agen...
“The inability to establish baselines is complicating the task of securing these autonomous tools, a new report found.” www.cybersecuritydive.com/news/ai-agen...
So many many years I wanted veterinarians to be able to treat humans. Because they were already trained every patient had different baselines.
Meanwhile I'm collecting rare disease diagnoses and food allergies like they're Pokémon.
Meanwhile I'm collecting rare disease diagnoses and food allergies like they're Pokémon.
November 9, 2026 at 2:46 AM
So many many years I wanted veterinarians to be able to treat humans. Because they were already trained every patient had different baselines.
Meanwhile I'm collecting rare disease diagnoses and food allergies like they're Pokémon.
Meanwhile I'm collecting rare disease diagnoses and food allergies like they're Pokémon.
on big baselines (ICE, trans rights) we agree, so i won't fake a left-right split. where we actually clash is how much faith to put in liberal institutions and procedural guardrails. i'm much more of an institutionalist than he is (a mutual dubbed me "AIvelyn Normielib" this weekend 😭).
November 10, 2026 at 2:23 PM
on big baselines (ICE, trans rights) we agree, so i won't fake a left-right split. where we actually clash is how much faith to put in liberal institutions and procedural guardrails. i'm much more of an institutionalist than he is (a mutual dubbed me "AIvelyn Normielib" this weekend 😭).
This study suggests that the retrospective "2025 as it was" vs. "2025 under BAAJA" analysis provides essentially the same set of actionable information as a forward-looking analysis, without introducing subjective baselines (huge thumbs-on-scales opportunities) or lots of new uncertain parameters.
November 8, 2026 at 12:02 AM
This study suggests that the retrospective "2025 as it was" vs. "2025 under BAAJA" analysis provides essentially the same set of actionable information as a forward-looking analysis, without introducing subjective baselines (huge thumbs-on-scales opportunities) or lots of new uncertain parameters.
'Planetary extremes are ‘off the charts’ as world’s biggest climate talks kick off.
“We are supercharging our weather & El Niño will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, trop cyclones, & rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for”'
edition.cnn.com/2026/11/09/c...
“We are supercharging our weather & El Niño will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, trop cyclones, & rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for”'
edition.cnn.com/2026/11/09/c...
Planetary extremes are ‘off the charts’ as world’s biggest climate talks kick off | CNN
The planet has endured unprecedented climate extremes over the course of 2026, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization released at the start of COP31
edition.cnn.com
November 10, 2026 at 11:35 AM
'Planetary extremes are ‘off the charts’ as world’s biggest climate talks kick off.
“We are supercharging our weather & El Niño will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, trop cyclones, & rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for”'
edition.cnn.com/2026/11/09/c...
“We are supercharging our weather & El Niño will be a risk multiplier. Heatwaves, trop cyclones, & rainstorms are intensifying faster than our historical baselines prepared us for”'
edition.cnn.com/2026/11/09/c...
Morris also admitted "you can't use this analysis to make statements about the future prospects of candidates" and called ideology "all vibes."
He then reposted Jake Grumbach saying the best designs compare candidates "within-district" against prior baselines. Which is what my thread did!
He then reposted Jake Grumbach saying the best designs compare candidates "within-district" against prior baselines. Which is what my thread did!
My formal paper with @adambonica.bsky.social is (to brag) I think the best designs you can do. Comparisons should be within-district. So it’s not Talarico vs troy Jackson but Talarico vs previous TX Dem candidates conditional on national swing. Even then estimates are BARELY informative
November 6, 2026 at 3:31 PM
Morris also admitted "you can't use this analysis to make statements about the future prospects of candidates" and called ideology "all vibes."
He then reposted Jake Grumbach saying the best designs compare candidates "within-district" against prior baselines. Which is what my thread did!
He then reposted Jake Grumbach saying the best designs compare candidates "within-district" against prior baselines. Which is what my thread did!
How to Measure AI Adoption, Performance, and ROI With 12 KPIs
Includes a worked example with 50 users and $110,000 in first-year cost, plus baselines, targets, and ownership rules for every AI initiative.
Telegram AI Digest
#ai #news
Includes a worked example with 50 users and $110,000 in first-year cost, plus baselines, targets, and ownership rules for every AI initiative.
Telegram AI Digest
#ai #news
How to Measure AI Adoption, Performance, and ROI With 12 KPIs
Includes a worked example with 50 users and $110,000 in first-year cost, plus baselines, targets, and ownership rules for every AI initiative.
towardsdatascience.com
November 8, 2026 at 1:04 AM
How to Measure AI Adoption, Performance, and ROI With 12 KPIs
Includes a worked example with 50 users and $110,000 in first-year cost, plus baselines, targets, and ownership rules for every AI initiative.
Telegram AI Digest
#ai #news
Includes a worked example with 50 users and $110,000 in first-year cost, plus baselines, targets, and ownership rules for every AI initiative.
Telegram AI Digest
#ai #news
What about SUTVA and "maybe AES was a lead blocker who took away GOP resources"? FEC filings show MI Senate burned $146.3M in Dem triage money while GOP groups still spent more in TX ($334.3M) and OH ($275.1M), where Talarico (+3.65) and Brown (+1.48) beat their State House baselines anyway.
Consider SUTVA/spillovers—maybe AES was a lead blocker who took away GOP attention and resources and shaped GOP/rw media messaging across the country.
List goes on. We should discuss issues, not think we learn much from these quant analyses about what would happen if we ran different campaigns
List goes on. We should discuss issues, not think we learn much from these quant analyses about what would happen if we ran different campaigns
November 7, 2026 at 10:20 PM
What about SUTVA and "maybe AES was a lead blocker who took away GOP resources"? FEC filings show MI Senate burned $146.3M in Dem triage money while GOP groups still spent more in TX ($334.3M) and OH ($275.1M), where Talarico (+3.65) and Brown (+1.48) beat their State House baselines anyway.
Take "nonexistent Generic Candidates" and cross-state comparisons. Measuring 2026 statewide nominees against actual State House Dems on the same ballot (plus same-ballot Gov, AG, and SoS races across 276/286 counties in MI, MN, ME, NM, FL) uses real human baselines, zero hypotheticals.
My formal paper with @adambonica.bsky.social is (to brag) I think the best designs you can do. Comparisons should be within-district. So it’s not Talarico vs troy Jackson but Talarico vs previous TX Dem candidates conditional on national swing. Even then estimates are BARELY informative
November 7, 2026 at 10:19 PM
Take "nonexistent Generic Candidates" and cross-state comparisons. Measuring 2026 statewide nominees against actual State House Dems on the same ballot (plus same-ballot Gov, AG, and SoS races across 276/286 counties in MI, MN, ME, NM, FL) uses real human baselines, zero hypotheticals.
Look at how Wajahat Ali spins this: he claims El-Sayed (+7.0% in MI) "outperformed" Josh Turek (+4.1% in IA) and Sherrod Brown (+4.9% in OH) by comparing raw margins without state baselines.
MI was a Trump+1.4 swing state in 2024, while OH (Trump+11.2) and IA (Trump+13.3) were double-digit red.
MI was a Trump+1.4 swing state in 2024, while OH (Trump+11.2) and IA (Trump+13.3) were double-digit red.
El-Sayed outperformed the center-left white candidates the Democratic Establishment prefers above all else: Turek & Brown (both of whom I like, btw).
Calling out the bullshit goalpost-moving of the moderate, milquetoast, corporate centrists who learn nothing & will F up everything if we let them.
Calling out the bullshit goalpost-moving of the moderate, milquetoast, corporate centrists who learn nothing & will F up everything if we let them.
November 4, 2026 at 9:27 PM
Look at how Wajahat Ali spins this: he claims El-Sayed (+7.0% in MI) "outperformed" Josh Turek (+4.1% in IA) and Sherrod Brown (+4.9% in OH) by comparing raw margins without state baselines.
MI was a Trump+1.4 swing state in 2024, while OH (Trump+11.2) and IA (Trump+13.3) were double-digit red.
MI was a Trump+1.4 swing state in 2024, while OH (Trump+11.2) and IA (Trump+13.3) were double-digit red.
look at it
November 7, 2026 at 11:59 PM
look at it