#BerlinCable
New #BerlinCable

After a botched reshuffle, Germany is approaching a political crunch time in September. It may even lead to a “chancellor switch.“

ip-quarterly.com/en/troubled-...
A Troubled Merz Faces Crucial Elections in September
An amateurish government reshuffle has gone badly wrong for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. With the far-right AfD likely surging in regional elections, the end of his chancellorship may come more q...
ip-quarterly.com
August 6, 2026 at 3:45 PM
"As opposition leader, Merz could have struck a deal with the Scholz government on debt-financed rearmament, but he preferred to wait ‘until I’m chancellor.‘

This lack of statesmanship is continuing to haunt him."

New #BerlinCable by @henninghoff.bsky.social

ip-quarterly.com/en/afd-wins-...
The AfD Wins Again, but Merz Clings On
Germany’s far right has had another strong showing in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, with the chancellor’s CDU failing to enter the parliament. Without a challenger ready to pounce, however, Merz is l...
ip-quarterly.com
September 22, 2026 at 12:48 PM
The Greens will not be part of the Merz government, but they have shaped its future policies nonetheless. New #BerlinCable
March 27, 2025 at 5:14 PM
New #BerlinCable

Friedrich Merz needed two tries to become chancellor. His rocky start will overshadow what looks like a promising foreign policy setup.

ip-quarterly.com/en/terrible-...
A Terrible Start for Merz
Germany’s incoming chancellor needed two tries to get the necessary majority in parliament. This has overshadowed the start of Friedrich Merz’ new government, whose foreign policy setup actually looks...
ip-quarterly.com
May 6, 2025 at 6:39 PM
A year ago, the Scholz government fell apart. This is what I wrote then. Some things have since changed for the better: Germany is now spending big on defense and infrastructure. Other aspects of 🇩🇪 foreign and security policy remain a work-in-progress #BerlinCable ip-quarterly.com/en/underwhel...
The Underwhelming Scholz Government Meets an Untimely End
The break-up of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’ coalition government was expected, but is still taking place at an extremely critical time. Its successor will have to set clearer priorities—and find greater f...
ip-quarterly.com
November 6, 2025 at 4:44 PM
Is "fail again, fail better" new German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's motto?

Merz won a parliamentary majority only at the second attempt. Now questions linger with regards to the future stability of the new coalition, writes @henninghoff.bsky.social in #BerlinCable

ip-quarterly.com/en/terrible-...
A Terrible Start for Merz
Germany’s incoming chancellor needed two tries to get the necessary majority in parliament. This has overshadowed the start of Friedrich Merz’ new government, whose foreign policy setup actually looks...
ip-quarterly.com
May 7, 2025 at 5:49 AM
@henninghoff.bsky.social (in #BerlinCable) writes of the “deepest crisis in the CDU’s 81-year history” which leads it to contemplate a "chancellor switch".
Read about what this means ahead of September’s state elections here: ip-quarterly.com/en/troubled-...
A Troubled Merz Faces Crucial Elections in September
An amateurish government reshuffle has gone badly wrong for German Chancellor Friedrich Merz. With the far-right AfD likely surging in regional elections, the end of his chancellorship may come more q...
ip-quarterly.com
August 7, 2026 at 2:50 PM
New #BerlinCable

The far-right Alternative für Deutschland has won big in the small federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, but not big enough for an outright majority, writes @henninghoff.bsky.social

Still, the result may well strongly affect Merz' government.

ip-quarterly.com/en/shock-sys...
A Shock to the System
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has won big in the small federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, but not big enough for an outright majority. Still, the result may well trigger changes at the ...
ip-quarterly.com
September 7, 2026 at 8:51 AM
For what is likely to happen next in German politics check out my latest #BerlinCable

ip-quarterly.com/en/shock-sys...
A Shock to the System
The far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has won big in the small federal state of Saxony-Anhalt, but not big enough for an outright majority. Still, the result may well trigger changes at the ...
ip-quarterly.com
September 11, 2026 at 8:11 AM
New #BerlinCable

Another reminder that the Merz government is not as stable as it possibly seems outside of Germany.

ip-quarterly.com/en/spds-losi...
The SPD’s Losing Streak Is Merz’ Problem, Too
Chancellor Friedrich Merz’ center-right Christian Democrats have had a mixed start to this year’s five federal state elections. But these outcomes are less worrying for the chancellor than the state o...
ip-quarterly.com
March 27, 2026 at 8:27 AM
NEW #BerlinCable

Squaring the Circle

Germany has strongly sided with Israel in the aftermath of the brutal attack by Hamas, and for good reasons.

However, this poses questions for foreign policy that will be difficult to address, says @henninghoff.bsky.social

ip-quarterly.com/en/squaring-...
Squaring the Circle
Germany has strongly sided with Israel in the aftermath of the brutal attack by Hamas, and for good reasons. However, this poses questions for German foreign policy that will be difficult to address.
ip-quarterly.com
October 25, 2023 at 6:18 AM
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has decided to skip UN General Assembly (again) next week because “his presence in Berlin is required.“

Two regional elections are coming up on Sunday, September 20, in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania.

Their outcome may seal Merz’ fate. Watch out for #BerlinCable
Aus Regierungskreisen:

Kanzler Merz sagt seine Reise zur UN-Vollversammlung nächste Woche ab, "da seine Präsenz in Berlin erforderlich ist."
September 15, 2026 at 8:31 PM
New #BerlinCable

Trump’s attempts at summit diplomacy have revived all the old German foreign policy reflexes which one had hoped would be a thing of the past.

ip-quarterly.com/en/will-germ...
Will German Foreign Policy Ever Change Its Spots?
Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul has started an untimely, and ill-informed, debate about “German boots on the ground in Ukraine.” A more strategic and coherent foreign policy is still a long way off.
ip-quarterly.com
August 22, 2025 at 12:29 PM
New #BerlinCable
(from our special @munsecconf.bsky.social issue)

Germany’s next government will have to borrow more and spend more, in particular on defense.

It’s a reality that will certainly become very apparent at #MSC2025 #GettingEuropesDefenseRight

ip-quarterly.com/en/what-will...
What Will Germany Do Next?
The coalition-building after the election on February 23 is likely to become a moment of truth.
ip-quarterly.com
February 12, 2025 at 5:00 PM