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September 20, 2025 at 7:57 AM
lol zitron's gone too far this time
www.wheresyoured.at/openai400bn/
news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4562...
www.wheresyoured.at/openai400bn/
news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4562...
![hacker news comment by ctoth 29 minutes ago on: OpenAI Needs $400B In The Next 12 Months
His "$400B in next 12 months" claim treats OpenAI as paying construction costs upfront. But OpenAI is leasing capacity as operating expense - Oracle finances and builds the data centers [1]. This is like saying a tenant needs $5M cash because that's what the building cost to construct.
The Oracle deal structure: OpenAI pays ~$30B/year in rental fees starting fiscal 2027/2028 [2], ramping up over 5 years as capacity comes online. Not "$400B in 12 months."
The deals are structured as staged vendor financing: - NVIDIA "invests" $10B per gigawatt milestone, gets paid back through chip purchases [3] - AMD gives OpenAI warrants for 160M shares (~10% equity) that vest as chips deploy [4] - As one analyst noted: "Nvidia invests $100 billion in OpenAI, which then OpenAI turns back and gives it back to Nvidia" [3]
This is circular vendor financing where suppliers extend credit betting on OpenAI's growth. It's unusual and potentially fragile, but it's not "OpenAI needs $400B cash they don't have."
Zitron asks: "Does OpenAI have $400B in cash?"
The actual question: "Can OpenAI grow revenue from $13B to $60B+ to cover lease payments by 2028-2029?"
The first question is nonsensical given deal structure. The second is the actual bet everyone's making.
His core thesis - "OpenAI literally cannot afford these deals therefore fraud" - fails because he fundamentally misunderstands how the deals work. The real questions are about execution timelines and revenue growth projections, not about OpenAI needing hundreds of billions in cash right now.
There's probably a good critical piece to write about whether these vendor financing bets will pay off, but this isn't it.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:ctphcgyhnllfluywokibtrgb/bafkreifm63qgybkwkaq5m44eezgtswypm4ueala7v2cu25g32pmfmidt24)
October 17, 2025 at 7:08 PM
lol zitron's gone too far this time
www.wheresyoured.at/openai400bn/
news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4562...
www.wheresyoured.at/openai400bn/
news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4562...
What We Learned from Red Teaming Our Top Charities
Posted by ctoth with a score of 31
www.givewell.org
November 26, 2024 at 1:00 PM
And continuing on, brings you to the frontiers of mathematics in, say, 1980 or so, with the Grünbaum-Dress Polyhedra. Here's a link to some reading...
www.csun.edu/~ctoth/Handb...
30/
www.csun.edu/~ctoth/Handb...
30/
www.csun.edu
November 13, 2024 at 10:59 PM
And continuing on, brings you to the frontiers of mathematics in, say, 1980 or so, with the Grünbaum-Dress Polyhedra. Here's a link to some reading...
www.csun.edu/~ctoth/Handb...
30/
www.csun.edu/~ctoth/Handb...
30/
Andrej Karpathy – AGI is still a decade away
Posted by ctoth with a score of 61
www.dwarkesh.com
October 17, 2025 at 6:00 PM