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November 9, 2026 at 5:18 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Early Look at Local Housing Markets in October, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/early-look-at-local-housing-markets-441
Teaser: The NAR is releasing its October data earlier than usual, and Bill McBride is already crunching the early numbers from local markets. The initial snapshot is stark: closed sales are down 15.2% year-over-year, new listings are falling, and inventory is climbing. With mortgage rates still elevated, is the housing market heading for a new cycle low? McBride parses the early warning signs and the crucial caveats before the official report drops next week. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/early-look-at-local-housing-markets-441 generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
November 6, 2026 at 10:41 PM
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October 31, 2026 at 4:05 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-update-on-mbs-yields-and-spreads-5ea
Teaser: Housing economist Tom Lawler checks in with a fresh look at mortgage-backed securities. The current-coupon MBS yield has dropped to its lowest level since early September, now sitting 50 basis points below the October high for the year. Spreads over Treasuries tightened last week, though they remain wider than they’ve been for most of 2026. Implied interest-rate volatility also eased a bit, but is still elevated compared to the rest of the year. Lawler also notes that the municipal bond market is continuing its recovery from a brutal September, with most AAA muni/Treasury ratios back to late-August levels—except at the very long end of the curve, where ratios remain well above where they were two months ago. Charts included. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-update-on-mbs-yields-and-spreads-5ea generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
November 9, 2026 at 7:32 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: November ICE Mortgage Monitor: Annual home price growth was 1.0% in October, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/november-ice-mortgage-monitor-annual
Teaser: Annual home price growth slowed to 1.0% in October, per the November ICE Mortgage Monitor. But the report’s spotlight is on negative equity, which is spiking in Florida and Texas—Cape Coral leads with 11.2% of mortgages underwater. At the same time, a record 2.4 million mortgage holders are equity millionaires. The Monitor also tracks rising delinquencies, a cash-out refinance wave, and the slow unwind of low-rate mortgages. Check out the full analysis. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/november-ice-mortgage-monitor-annual generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
November 9, 2026 at 7:26 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Q3 NY Fed Report: Mortgage Originations by Credit Score, Foreclosures Decrease, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q3-ny-fed-report-mortgage-originations-980
Teaser: The NY Fed’s Q3 report on household debt is out, and the data on mortgage underwriting tells a striking story. Today’s lending environment looks nothing like the bubble years of 2003-2006. The article highlights a dramatic shift in credit scores: originations to borrowers below 620 are nearly nonexistent, and the vast majority of new loans go to those with scores above 760. While foreclosures ticked up in Q3, they remain below pre-pandemic levels, and the transition to serious delinquencies, though rising, is still historically low. Bill McBride argues this solid underwriting is a key reason not to compare the current market to the last bust. But a slight dip in credit quality and a widening divide in credit card delinquency by income are worth watching. Dive in for the charts and the full breakdown. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/q3-ny-fed-report-mortgage-originations-980 generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
November 10, 2026 at 5:01 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Altos: Single-Family Inventory Back to 2019 Levels, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/altos-single-family-inventory-back
Teaser: Single-family home inventory has officially returned to 2019 levels for the first time since the pandemic. Bill McBride of CalculatedRisk analyzes the latest Altos Research data, revealing a market where supply is finally catching up—but demand is fading. With mortgage rates hovering above 7%, buyer activity is slowing, allowing unsold listings to pile up. The red line on the chart has met the black line, and the implications for home prices are significant. The full story is in the data. Read on to see what the inventory numbers are really telling us. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/altos-single-family-inventory-back generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
November 2, 2026 at 8:36 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey; Down 19% Year-over-year, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/mortgage-applications-decrease-in
Teaser: Single-family inventory has climbed back to 2019 levels—but mortgage applications tell a very different story. The latest MBA Weekly Survey shows total applications down 1.2% for the week and purchase volume off 19% from a year ago, even as the 30-year rate slips to 7.3%. Refinance activity is stuck near historic lows, and more borrowers are turning to ARMs to manage payments. Bill McBride walks through the charts, the Fed's influence, and what persistently weak demand could mean for the housing market in the months ahead. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/mortgage-applications-decrease-in generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
November 4, 2026 at 5:23 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased in September; Up 1.9% Year-over-year, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-027
Teaser: National house prices inched up 1.9% year-over-year in September, according to the Freddie Mac index. That top-line number, however, masks a brutal correction happening on the ground. Twenty states and over 150 metro areas are now below their recent peaks. The biggest victims? Pandemic boomtowns in Florida and Texas, where cities like Punta Gorda, Austin, and Cape Coral have seen prices crater by double digits. Bill McBride digs into the data, compares the indexes, and lays out why the year-over-year numbers are likely to keep softening. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/freddie-mac-house-price-index-increased-027 generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
November 2, 2026 at 9:58 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Lawler: Update on the GSEs: Agency MBS Holdings Increased in September; Interest-Rate Risk Measures Still Elevated, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-update-on-the-gses-agency-9fb
Teaser: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac increased their Agency MBS holdings in September by a combined $11.7 billion, the largest monthly gain since March. Yet the year-to-date total of $50.7 billion is a far cry from the $200 billion in purchases once implied by President Trump. FHFA Director Bill Pulte has vowed the GSEs are buying "large quantities," but the data shows only a modest pickup. Interest-rate risk measures remain at historically elevated levels. Housing economist Tom Lawler digs into the latest volume summaries, MBS yield trends, and a muni market that partially recovered after a horrific September. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-update-on-the-gses-agency-9fb generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
November 1, 2026 at 10:09 PM
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October 27, 2026 at 4:32 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Fannie and Freddie: Single Family Delinquency Rates Increased in September, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and-freddie-single-family-2e5
Teaser: In September, serious single-family delinquency rates for both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac inched up—Freddie to 0.61% and Fannie to 0.62%—continuing a slow, steady climb that remains near pre-pandemic norms but above year-ago levels. The numbers are still a far cry from the crisis peaks of 2010, yet their direction bears watching. The article breaks down the latest data from both agencies, shows how current rates compare to their 2020 pandemic highs, and then turns to a more urgent problem: multi-family delinquencies, which remain "very high" and are elevated well above historical levels. The detailed breakdown of that multi-family stress, and what it might signal for the housing market, sits behind the paywall for subscribers, where the full trend analysis and charts live. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/fannie-and-freddie-single-family-2e5 generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
October 30, 2026 at 2:57 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Inflation Adjusted House Prices 3.9% Below 2022 Peak, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-39-fff
Teaser: Nominal house prices are at all-time highs, but when you adjust for inflation, the picture changes dramatically. According to the latest Case-Shiller data, real house prices are now 3.9% below their 2022 peak—and the price-to-rent index has fallen even further, down 11.0%. Bill McBride breaks down the numbers with charts on nominal prices, real prices, and affordability, explaining why this matters for the housing market. With inventory rising and mortgage rates staying high, what does this mean for 2026? The full analysis, including the price-to-rent and affordability graphs, is for paid subscribers. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/inflation-adjusted-house-prices-39-fff generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
October 29, 2026 at 3:24 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: High Frequency Data: Inventory Up, Demand Down Year-over-year, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequency-data-inventory-up
Teaser: Mortgage rates are still hovering near 7.5%, and the latest weekly data is already flashing warning signs for the housing market. Purchase applications are down 18% from a year ago, while refinancing has cratered more than 60%. Meanwhile, active single-family inventory is climbing—up nearly 6% year-over-year, with Realtor.com reporting the highest weekly growth rate since January. The combination of rising supply and falling demand is a classic recipe for price pressure. Bill McBride digs into the numbers from MBA and Altos Research to show exactly how the recent rate spike is reshaping buyer behavior and inventory trends. Read on for the charts and the outlook. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequency-data-inventory-up generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
October 28, 2026 at 1:08 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: New Home Sales Decrease to 676,000 Annual Rate in September, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-sales-decrease-to-676000
Teaser: New home sales slipped to a 676,000 annual rate in September, beating forecasts but trailing last year's pace. The headline, however, only scratches the surface. Bill McBride digs into the Census data to reveal a market defined by shifting composition: the median price is down 13% from its peak, driven by a change in the mix of homes sold. Supply remains elevated at 8.4 months, well above the normal range, with completed inventory swelling and "not started" homes hitting an all-time high. What does this mean for the months ahead? The full post, packed with historical charts and paid-subscriber analysis, breaks down the inventory categories and seasonal trends to show where the market is really heading. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/new-home-sales-decrease-to-676000 generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
October 27, 2026 at 3:25 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index Up 2.1% year-over-year in August, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-national-house-price-539
Teaser: Home prices are still rising—but in real terms, they’ve now fallen for over a year straight. The August Case-Shiller report puts the national index up 2.1% year-over-year, while the FHFA measure is up 2.4%. Yet with inflation running at 3.4%, the squeeze on buyers hasn’t let up. The data also reveals a stark geographic split: Chicago, New York, and Cleveland are posting solid gains, while Seattle, Las Vegas, and Denver are lagging or declining. The article breaks down the headline numbers, the seasonal noise, and what it all means for affordability. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/case-shiller-national-house-price-539 generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
October 27, 2026 at 2:11 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: NMHC: “Apartment Market Conditions Weaken” in October Survey, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/nmhc-apartment-market-conditions-a33
October 22, 2026 at 4:39 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Lawler: Update on MBS Yields and Spreads, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/lawler-update-on-mbs-yields-and-spreads-1b2
October 21, 2026 at 8:40 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: “Architecture firm billings slump deepens” in September, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/architecture-firm-billings-slump
October 21, 2026 at 5:50 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: High Frequency Data: Housing Slump Deepens, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequency-data-housing-slump
October 21, 2026 at 2:14 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.221 million Annual Rate in September, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/housing-starts-decreased-to-1221
October 20, 2026 at 3:03 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: House Prices to Income, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/house-prices-to-income-883
October 19, 2026 at 4:45 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2026, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-2-current-state-of-the-housing-7ad
October 16, 2026 at 3:12 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Part 1: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-October 2026, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-a62
Teaser: Existing home sales are still scraping historical lows, inventory is climbing to levels not seen in over a decade, and builders are slashing prices to clear a glut of unsold homes. That’s the snapshot Bill McBride paints in this mid-October housing market update. Part one of a two-part series digs into the numbers on sales, active listings, and months-of-supply—backed by the latest Realtor.com data. Sales are down 2.2% year-over-year, the median price has already peaked for 2026, and the inventory gap with pre-pandemic levels is narrowing fast. But there are sharp regional differences, and the story for homebuilders is even tougher. What does it all mean for the months ahead? McBride breaks it down—and for the full data deep dive, you’ll need to be a paid subscriber. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/part-1-current-state-of-the-housing-a62 generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
October 15, 2026 at 3:46 PM
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[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: High Frequency Data: Recent Increase in Mortgage Rates Impacting Existing Home Supply and Demand, by CalculatedRisk by Bill McBride https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequency-data-recent-increase
Teaser: Mortgage rates have climbed back to 7.5%, and the housing market is feeling the squeeze. New weekly data shows purchase applications tumbling 16% from a year ago, while single-family inventory ticks up nearly 5%. Bill McBride breaks down the high-frequency numbers from MBA and Altos Research, and explains what they signal for home sales and prices ahead. Read on for the charts and analysis. teaser for https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/high-frequency-data-recent-increase generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
October 14, 2026 at 1:12 PM