Staff told the council payroll-expense tax projections were affected by both announced layoffs (pressuring employment) and stronger stock-price outlooks (supporting compensation-driven tax bases), producing a mixed revision across 2026'28.

Finance staff presented the 2025–26 mid‑biennial update showing revenues flattening compared with recent years, personnel savings helping near term positions, and a forecasted $9.5 million ongoing deficit in the 2027–28 biennium. Staff proposed a series of one‑time and ongoing service packages and CIP adjustments and recommended conservative fiscal

Experts caution about New York's economy facing heightened risks and budget challenges ahead.

Secretary Sickles told the Senate committee a May reforecast raised resources for the next biennium, with fiscal‑year‑to‑date revenues running ahead of forecast and a projected surplus of about $837 million, but he warned about inflation, a downward GDP revision to 1.6% and a loss of payroll jobs that weaken long‑term prospects.

Treasurer Pellicciotti asked whether recent oil‑price spikes and rising interest rates will be incorporated in the revenue review; Dr. Wright said oil assumptions come from futures markets and the revenue review will use the latest futures pricing, and that interest rates are modeled and updated.

Secretary Wright said Venezuelan production, currently just over 1,200,000 barrels per day, could increase by 50% in 12–18 months and reach more than 2,000,000 b/d by the end of the decade, a change he said would exert downward pressure on prices.

Prediction markets are financial markets where participants buy and sell contracts whose value depen

The budget assumes $5.2 million from managed-care rate improvements and anticipates an $8.4 million reduction in sales-tax revenue; presenters emphasized payer-mix improvements and cash-collection efforts.

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett faced scrutiny after his optimistic predictions about U.S. economic growth proved inaccurate. During a July 31, 2026, appearance on Fox Business, Hassett defended his earlier claim that the economy would grow by 4% in the second half of 2026, despite official data showing only 1.5% GDP growth for the second quarter. The Commerce Department's report revealed weaker-than-expected economic activity, prompting Fox host Maria Bartiromo to question Hassett's forecast. Hassett attempted to justify the discrepancy by citing domestic demand figures and increased capital spending on factory construction. However, federal data contradicted his claims, showing a 22% decline in factory construction spending compared to the previous year and a net loss of 20,000 manufacturing jobs over six months. Critics argue that Hassett's optimistic projections ignore broader economic trends, including stagnant industrial output and declining employment in key sectors. The incident highlights growing skepticism toward high-level economic forecasts and their potential impact on public perception and policy decisions.

WSDOT reported Jan–Mar 2026 combined toll transactions above forecast (≈17.8M; +2.5%) and revenues slightly above (≈$60.5M; +0.8%). The June statewide transportation forecast trims projections over the biennia, driven by higher fuel prices and legislative reallocations of Climate Commitment Act funds.

Staff walked members through the four‑year NGFO outlook, what is and isn't included in outlook expenditures and the role of the Budget Stabilization Account, noting the constitutionally required 1% transfer and common reversion assumptions used in projections.

Analysts report diesel consumption increases partially due to post-hurricane cleanup efforts.

Forecasts predict higher aviation fuel refunds amid discussions on airline layoffs impact.

NVCOG data scientist Tim Nolan presented DEF 2060, a demographic and economic forecast through 2060 using Monte Carlo simulations and public data sources; an interactive dashboard will be published for municipal use and will inform MTP and funding priorities.

Staff presented the council with an updated June forecast that incorporates higher fuel prices tied to the Iran war, 2026 legislative fee changes and a DOL reporting correction. The council voted to accept the forecast after brief member questions.

Seattles Economic and Revenue Forecast Council on Oct. 20 recorded its concurrence with the Office of Economic and Revenue Forecastsrecommendation to adopt the October 2025 baseline revenue forecast. Staff highlighted weak regional job growth, sales tax softness, payroll-tax volatility and policy changes that increase uncertainty ahead of the 202

County officials strengthen budget calculations to align with state economic indicators.

Kalshi argues federal regulators alone can oversee derivatives trading as Utah signals crackdown on prediction market contracts.