Forecast anticipates 1.1% revenue increase for FY25 due to changing tourism patterns

Forecast office staff reported Seattle lost about 18,000 jobs between March 2024 and March 2025, with a broader 25,000 decline since March 2020; layoffs in the information (tech) sector and high mortgage rates are primary headwinds to employment recovery.

ESD's chief labor economist presented preliminary August data showing about 3,500,000 workers in Washington, an average annual wage estimate of $96,378, and an unemployment rate of 4.9%; she noted the labor force decreased nearly 10,000 over the year.

Finnish economic forecasters have defended their work after a Kalevi Sorsa Foundation report criticised the accuracy of forecasts used to guide political decisions, Yle reported. Mikko Spolander, director general at the Ministry of Finance, said the figures matter less than the overall economic n…

A report by the Kalevi Sorsa Foundation finds that economic forecasts for Finland are usually significantly inaccurate, yet political decisions continue to rely on them, Yle reports. “Economic forecasts are correct mainly by chance,” said Lauri Finér, the foundation’s executive director, who prep…

Growth in military personnel and private sector jobs signals positive economic outlook.

FOMC maintains interest rates and revises economic forecasts based on recent data.

Global growth forecast to 2.3% signals risks for stock market 2025. Discover personal finance tips, investment strategies, and wealth management moves to thrive

Budget predictions face external risks from potential economic downturn and ongoing trade wars.

The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Anotherimportant input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect. Non-Farm Payrolls * 0K-144K range of estimates * 60K-100K range most clustered * 75K consensus Unemployment Rate * 4.4% (1%) * 4.3% (59%) - consensus * 4.2% (39%) * 4.1% (1%) Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y * 3.9% (7%) * 3.8% (31%) * 3.7% (59%) - consensus * 3.4% (3%) Average Hourly Earnings M/M * 0.4% (5%) * 0.3% (91%) - consensus * 0.2% (4%) Average Weekly Hours * 34.4 (3%) * 34.3 (83%) - consensus * 34.2 (14%) Overall, expectations are dovish for this report and the positioning is diametrically opposite to the one we had in August. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Why it's important? The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts. In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect. Non-Farm Payrolls * 50K-185K range of estimates * 110K-155K range most clustered * 135K consensus Unemployment Rate * 4.2% (45%) * 4.1% (51%) - consensus * 4.0% (4%) Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y * 4.0% (38%) * 3.9% (59%) - consensus * 3.8% (3%) Average Hourly Earnings M/M * 0.4% (2%) * 0.3% (92%) - consensus * 0.2% (6%) Average Weekly Hours * 34.3 (3%) * 34.2 (68%) - consensus * 34.1 (29%) As I already mentioned in the previous days, this data is old news because it doesn't reflect yet the new hit to growth from Wednesday's tariffs announcement. I would expect the market to fade a positive report and increase the bearish momentum in case we get bad data. The focus should be on Fed Chair Powell's speech as he can turn the sentiment around by opening the door for cuts despite higher inflation or sink everything further if he remains on the sidelines. This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

0900 GMT/0500 US Eastern time * National Bank of Slovakia (Národná banka Slovenska), and therefore a member of the ECB's Governing Council, Governor Peter Kazimir is speaking * he'll be presenting the Slovak central bank's latest economic forecasts and speaking on his policy outlook This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Experts predict inflation above 2 percent and a slight rise in unemployment rates.

Budget changes reduce Clean Water Fund by $120K due to downgraded meals and rooms tax.

Committee discusses Medicaid reductions and forecasts for business taxes amid economic uncertainty.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday suggested without evidence that the Federal Reserve’s widely followed economic forecasts are motivated by politics, as the Trump administration steps up pressure on the U.S. central bank to cut interest rates. "The Fed publishes something called a summary of economic projections, and it’s pretty politically biased," Bessent said, summarizing the projections as forecasts for one to two quarter-point interest-rate cuts this year. President Donald Trump has demanded the Fed deliver an immediate 300 basis-point rate cut. The Fed publishes interest-rate forecasts from each of its 19 policymakers each quarter and does not identify which policymaker made which forecast. In June, eight projected two quarter-point interest-rate cuts this year, seven projected none, two saw one interest rate cut and two saw three. Two of the Fed Board’s Trump appointees - Governor Christopher Waller and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman -- have each articulated economic reasons for supporting a rate cut this month. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, also a Trump appointee, has not signaled such support. Fed policymakers universally reject the idea that politics have any role in their monetary policy decisions, and say that to suggest they do undermines the central bank’s credibility and its ability to do its job fighting inflation and promoting maximum employment.

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Experts project oil prices to decline due to rising global production and stable Bakken output.