More news: Consider voting for me in the #elections for the
@ecpr.bsky.social #PolCom steering committee!
Deadline: March 26. 🗳️
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@ecpr.bsky.social #PolCom steering committee!
Deadline: March 26. 🗳️
Not a member yet? Joining is easy & free - click 'create an account' and join the PolCom section. 🙏https://ecpr.eu/MyEcpr/ElectionFinalBallot.aspx?ElectionID=71
March 12, 2024 at 10:08 AM
More news: Consider voting for me in the #elections for the
@ecpr.bsky.social #PolCom steering committee!
Deadline: March 26. 🗳️
Not a member yet? Joining is easy & free - click 'create an account' and join the PolCom section. 🙏https://ecpr.eu/MyEcpr/ElectionFinalBallot.aspx?ElectionID=71
@ecpr.bsky.social #PolCom steering committee!
Deadline: March 26. 🗳️
Not a member yet? Joining is easy & free - click 'create an account' and join the PolCom section. 🙏https://ecpr.eu/MyEcpr/ElectionFinalBallot.aspx?ElectionID=71
If a precinct/county had more ED versus mail-in votes, I would expect to see a shift towards trump's share
March 28, 2025 at 8:57 PM
If a precinct/county had more ED versus mail-in votes, I would expect to see a shift towards trump's share
Similarly, in PA we had a more competitive Senate race
These results disappoint but don't surprise me
These results disappoint but don't surprise me
July 21, 2025 at 9:52 PM
Similarly, in PA we had a more competitive Senate race
These results disappoint but don't surprise me
These results disappoint but don't surprise me
County results don't matter.....but it is the purplist of purple counties
September 15, 2025 at 1:04 PM
County results don't matter.....but it is the purplist of purple counties
There is an approximate 20% difference in candidate preference and use of mail versus election day.
It is malpractice to isolate these methods and expect to identify fraud or manipulation
It is malpractice to isolate these methods and expect to identify fraud or manipulation
April 14, 2025 at 1:42 PM
There is an approximate 20% difference in candidate preference and use of mail versus election day.
It is malpractice to isolate these methods and expect to identify fraud or manipulation
It is malpractice to isolate these methods and expect to identify fraud or manipulation
Spoonamore is a victim of his own confirmation bias.
He pushes insanely bad statistics creates disinformation like the bullet ballots and even in this little screen shot months later is easily debunked
re: Center county...WTF is he talking about
He pushes insanely bad statistics creates disinformation like the bullet ballots and even in this little screen shot months later is easily debunked
re: Center county...WTF is he talking about
June 5, 2025 at 10:32 PM
Spoonamore is a victim of his own confirmation bias.
He pushes insanely bad statistics creates disinformation like the bullet ballots and even in this little screen shot months later is easily debunked
re: Center county...WTF is he talking about
He pushes insanely bad statistics creates disinformation like the bullet ballots and even in this little screen shot months later is easily debunked
re: Center county...WTF is he talking about
I will continue to caution that using "turnout" as a concept after separating votes by method and doing ANY graphing or analysis or looking at differences between these subsets of the electorate is a fatally flawed approach
High "turnout" is after removing a disproportionate # of Harris votes
High "turnout" is after removing a disproportionate # of Harris votes
August 28, 2025 at 10:46 AM
I will continue to caution that using "turnout" as a concept after separating votes by method and doing ANY graphing or analysis or looking at differences between these subsets of the electorate is a fatally flawed approach
High "turnout" is after removing a disproportionate # of Harris votes
High "turnout" is after removing a disproportionate # of Harris votes
We know republicans and trump leaning voters prefer election day versus mail. He slandered mail for years. PA had a about a 20% preference of election day over mail amongst trump supporters.
This is the "red mirage" not evidence of anything
This is the "red mirage" not evidence of anything
March 30, 2026 at 2:25 PM
We know republicans and trump leaning voters prefer election day versus mail. He slandered mail for years. PA had a about a 20% preference of election day over mail amongst trump supporters.
This is the "red mirage" not evidence of anything
This is the "red mirage" not evidence of anything
la tendance est similaire au global, par pays et par période, avec un plafond qui peut légèrement varié 8/8
Source des données :
dataverse.harvard.edu/api/access/d...
Source des données :
dataverse.harvard.edu/api/access/d...
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/api/access/datafile/3107210?format=tab&gbrecs=true
polldate election system rule round electionyr elecdate turnout enpp daysbeforeED poll_ ipoll_ vote_ gov_ inc_ sample npolls pollcycle partyid countryid espv regime yr electionid country
1940-09-22 "L...
dataverse.harvard.edu
November 22, 2025 at 3:29 PM
la tendance est similaire au global, par pays et par période, avec un plafond qui peut légèrement varié 8/8
Source des données :
dataverse.harvard.edu/api/access/d...
Source des données :
dataverse.harvard.edu/api/access/d...
As you know, there is a difference in the use of election day versus mail based on candidate preference(they continue to hide this)
In this image, they use vote count (not turnout) and by dividing the method, they introduce the strong candidate bias (which they falsely claim indicates manipulation)
In this image, they use vote count (not turnout) and by dividing the method, they introduce the strong candidate bias (which they falsely claim indicates manipulation)
July 24, 2025 at 7:44 PM
As you know, there is a difference in the use of election day versus mail based on candidate preference(they continue to hide this)
In this image, they use vote count (not turnout) and by dividing the method, they introduce the strong candidate bias (which they falsely claim indicates manipulation)
In this image, they use vote count (not turnout) and by dividing the method, they introduce the strong candidate bias (which they falsely claim indicates manipulation)
From the beginning, ETA has been shown why separating data by method introduces a bias
It is fatal flaw in their analysis
Harris won mail by a few hundred votes but lost election day by almost 30K because her votes were a ~65/35 split while Trump was ~85/15
It is fatal flaw in their analysis
Harris won mail by a few hundred votes but lost election day by almost 30K because her votes were a ~65/35 split while Trump was ~85/15
August 11, 2026 at 8:58 PM
From the beginning, ETA has been shown why separating data by method introduces a bias
It is fatal flaw in their analysis
Harris won mail by a few hundred votes but lost election day by almost 30K because her votes were a ~65/35 split while Trump was ~85/15
It is fatal flaw in their analysis
Harris won mail by a few hundred votes but lost election day by almost 30K because her votes were a ~65/35 split while Trump was ~85/15
![{𝗮𝙅𝙎𝘿} My notes about the article:
Type/Stance This is an opinion column by Salena Zito. Treat its strategic claims as argument, not reportage. ([The Washington Post],1)
Verifiable Facts the Piece Leans on
DePasquale is PA Dems’ chair (elected Sept. 6, 2025). ([WITF],2)
2024 results in Pennsylvania: Trump carried the state; GOP flipped the U.S. Senate seat (McCormick over Casey) and two U.S. House seats; Republicans won AG, Auditor General, Treasurer. ([electionreturns.pa.gov],3)
Shapiro’s 2022 margin: ~56.5%–41.7% over Mastriano (official returns). ([electionreturns.pa.gov],4)
Washington County population (2020 Census): 209,349. ([Census.gov],5)
Arson attack on the governor’s residence (spring 2025): widely reported; suspect charged; no injuries. ([AP News],6)
Claims/Framings to Treat as Argument (Not Settled Fact)
That avoiding terms like ❝fascist/Nazi❞ is both morally right and electorally superior. The column presents elite quotes and strategist views but no independent evidence of causal vote gains from this rhetoric shift. ([The Washington Post],1)
That a ❝positive agenda❞ message can on its own win back ❝the working class.❞ The term is under-specified (union vs. non-union, white vs. non-white, metro vs. rural). ([The Washington Post],1)](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wnhlwfb44kfyi4gb6yc2tvbz/bafkreifuck4r6l6d3fdrert65fycaknaoeowxhrsgfdanzcvhgdnt7jsvm)
![Context the Piece Doesn't Probe
Whether naming authoritarian conduct (courts, civil rights, political violence) mobilises a different set of necessary voters — or whether euphemising it depresses base turnout.
County-level trend lines (e.g., Washington, Erie, Bucks, Northampton) to quantify what ❝winning back❞ would actually require in raw votes.
Falsifiable Indicators to Watch (2025-2026)
Immediate: Nov. 2025 judicial retention results — turnout patterns in red-leaning counties DePasquale is visiting.
2026: Shapiro re-election margin vs. 2022; Democratic performance in Erie/Bucks/Northampton/Washington; net change in PA’s U.S. House seats (did Dems claw back either of the 2024 flips?). ([electionreturns.pa.gov],4)
Bottom Line
Zito accurately reports who’s saying what and the 2024 scoreboard. The strategic thesis —❝less condemnation, more solutions❞— is a choice, not a proven fix. Measure it against county margins and whether ❝respectful❞ messaging coexists with plain naming of anti-democratic behaviour without sandpapering it away. ([The Washington Post],1)](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:wnhlwfb44kfyi4gb6yc2tvbz/bafkreih2vrb5otyhgj6uvzrjrxhbtni7eprix2hei5kygkwmsp5ehxduq4)
interesting breakdown of Bristol results http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ShowElectionPercentage=true&ElectionId=68
December 14, 2024 at 6:05 PM
interesting breakdown of Bristol results http://www.bristol.gov.uk/LocalElectionViewer?XSL=main&ShowElectionPercentage=true&ElectionId=68
The ~10,000 number comes from a press statement the County solicitor (Repak) gave the news. It wasn't an official count, and seems he may have just mis-spoke or was guessing or something. Not 100% sure, but that is the only source of the 65K number
wjactv.com/news/local/c...
wjactv.com/news/local/c...
June 17, 2026 at 12:58 PM
The ~10,000 number comes from a press statement the County solicitor (Repak) gave the news. It wasn't an official count, and seems he may have just mis-spoke or was guessing or something. Not 100% sure, but that is the only source of the 65K number
wjactv.com/news/local/c...
wjactv.com/news/local/c...
There was a shift, without pre-vaccine COVID it was more of split for PA amongst Harris voters versus Biden in 2020 for Dems, pretty similar for Trump voters as far as the breakdown of his votes coming from Mail versus Election day
June 4, 2025 at 9:48 PM
There was a shift, without pre-vaccine COVID it was more of split for PA amongst Harris voters versus Biden in 2020 for Dems, pretty similar for Trump voters as far as the breakdown of his votes coming from Mail versus Election day
I know our data.
As a fraction of his total it is still dramatically different
I would need to look to confirm your age statement. Given how small and convenient our precincts are and the years of undermining mail, I don't know your statement is true/false
As a fraction of his total it is still dramatically different
I would need to look to confirm your age statement. Given how small and convenient our precincts are and the years of undermining mail, I don't know your statement is true/false
May 15, 2025 at 12:20 PM
I know our data.
As a fraction of his total it is still dramatically different
I would need to look to confirm your age statement. Given how small and convenient our precincts are and the years of undermining mail, I don't know your statement is true/false
As a fraction of his total it is still dramatically different
I would need to look to confirm your age statement. Given how small and convenient our precincts are and the years of undermining mail, I don't know your statement is true/false
You always have some that don't vote down ticket (Trump brought out new, politically disengaged voters)
Additionally in PA. Third party candidates got ~100k more votes in the Senate race versus Presidential.
Additionally in PA. Third party candidates got ~100k more votes in the Senate race versus Presidential.
May 10, 2025 at 10:38 AM
You always have some that don't vote down ticket (Trump brought out new, politically disengaged voters)
Additionally in PA. Third party candidates got ~100k more votes in the Senate race versus Presidential.
Additionally in PA. Third party candidates got ~100k more votes in the Senate race versus Presidential.
To start, lets make sure we start with the same data: PA Results (source in alt-text)....so now, what do you see as an issue based on what you know about PA voters and the candidates involved?
May 7, 2025 at 6:23 PM
To start, lets make sure we start with the same data: PA Results (source in alt-text)....so now, what do you see as an issue based on what you know about PA voters and the candidates involved?
Allegheny (Pittsburgh) shows a similar trend as the state total.
March 30, 2025 at 11:41 AM
Allegheny (Pittsburgh) shows a similar trend as the state total.
사전선거 투표소 찾기 사이트.
http://info.nec.go.kr/m/main/showDocument.xhtml?electionId=0020250603&secondMenuId=BIAP01&topMenuId=BI&
http://info.nec.go.kr/m/main/showDocument.xhtml?electionId=0020250603&secondMenuId=BIAP01&topMenuId=BI&
선거통계시스템
info.nec.go.kr
May 29, 2025 at 12:11 AM
Election ID-Aadhaar card linking: CEC to meet home, legislative secretaries on March 18 yespunjab.com?p=103735
#ElectionID #AadhaarLinking #CEC #VoterID #IndianElections #GovernmentMeeting #ElectionCommission #BreakingNews #VoterRegistration #DigitalIndia
#ElectionID #AadhaarLinking #CEC #VoterID #IndianElections #GovernmentMeeting #ElectionCommission #BreakingNews #VoterRegistration #DigitalIndia
Election ID-Aadhaar card linking: CEC to meet home, legislative secretaries on March 18 - Yes Punjab News
Chief Election Commissioner Gyanesh Kumar to discuss linking voter ID with Aadhaar in a March 18 meeting with the Union Home Secretary. The move follows allegations by Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee...
yespunjab.com
March 15, 2025 at 2:24 PM
Election ID-Aadhaar card linking: CEC to meet home, legislative secretaries on March 18 yespunjab.com?p=103735
#ElectionID #AadhaarLinking #CEC #VoterID #IndianElections #GovernmentMeeting #ElectionCommission #BreakingNews #VoterRegistration #DigitalIndia
#ElectionID #AadhaarLinking #CEC #VoterID #IndianElections #GovernmentMeeting #ElectionCommission #BreakingNews #VoterRegistration #DigitalIndia
Think carefully WHY the #GOP would want these #CitizenData #Federalsites & the #passport controls…
#ElectionID
#InterState #Movement
#Women #Children…
#ElectionID
#InterState #Movement
#Women #Children…
June 20, 2026 at 5:41 PM
Think carefully WHY the #GOP would want these #CitizenData #Federalsites & the #passport controls…
#ElectionID
#InterState #Movement
#Women #Children…
#ElectionID
#InterState #Movement
#Women #Children…
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Balloteer - Vote Online
balloteer.com
November 25, 2024 at 12:00 PM