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The Nasdaq Composite notched a new record high Monday, powered by a rally in major tech names and “growing conviction among traders that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates,” according to fina...

Investing.com - European stocks edged higher Monday after soft U.S. payrolls data ramped up bets on a September interest rate cut, although French political uncertainty is likely to limit gains. At 03:02 ET (07:02 GMT), the DAX index in Germany climbed 0.7%, the CAC 40 in France gained 0.4% and the FTSE 100 in the U.K. rose 0.3%. Likely Fed cut helps sentiment Risk assets received a boost Monday after investors digested the previous week’s disappointing U.S. jobs report, cementing expectations of a rate cut from the Federal Reserve when it meets next week. Signs of a slowing U.S. economy means that markets are very confident that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points during its September 16-17 meeting. The only question left to be answered is whether it’s a 25 basis point cut or a jumbo 50 basis point cut, and the U.S. inflation report on Thursday will be pivotal in that debate. French political uncertainty However, gains are likely to be limited as France’s fourth prime minister in three years, François Bayrou, faces almost certain defeat in a confidence vote later in the session, tipping the eurozone’s second-biggest economy further into political uncertainty. France faces acute pressure to repair its finances, with last year’s deficit nearly double the EU’s 3% limit of economic output, but Bayrou’s budget bill is unlikely to secure a majority. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. The turmoil threatens France’s ability to rein in its debt, with the country’s 30-year government bond yield last week hitting a level last seen in June 2009. France’s credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s after its previous government collapsed last year, and a repeat would be a heavier blow, pushing it to a lower rating and raising the risk of forced selling of its already pressured bonds. Ishiba steps down as LDP leader Political instability also increased in Japan over the weekend after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said on Sunday that he will step down as the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, just weeks after its ruling coalition suffered a crushing defeat in the upper house elections. Ishiba signaled that his resignation was also after Tokyo had secured a trade deal with the U.S., which will entail relatively lower tariffs on Japanese goods. But his abrupt resignation now opens the door to a potential leadership struggle in the world’s fourth-largest economy, especially after the LDP lost its majority in the upper house. German exports fell in July German exports unexpectedly fell in July while industrial output rose, data showed on Monday. German exports fell by 0.6% in July compared with the previous month, according to data from the federal statistics office, a weaker result that the 0.1% increase expected. Imports dropped 0.1% compared with June. 3rd party Ad. Not an offer or recommendation by Investing.com. See disclosure here or remove ads. German industrial production rose by 1.3% in July compared to the previous month. Crude rises after OPEC+ meeting Oil prices surged higher after the OPEC+ production group agreed to raise output at a substantially smaller pace than that seen earlier this year. At 03:02 ET, Brent futures gained 1.7% to $66.64 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.8% to $63.00 a barrel. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to raise production by a cumulative 137,000 barrels per day in October, much lower than monthly hikes of about 555,000 bpd and 411,000 bpd in earlier months. The cartel’s latest hike comes after it began steadily raising production earlier this year, as leader Saudi Arabia sought to regain market share to offset deteriorating oil prices. Which stock should you buy in your very next trade? AI computing powers are changing the stock market. Investing.com's ProPicks AI includes dozens of winning stock portfolios chosen by our advanced AI. Year to date, 3 out of 4 global portfolios are beating their benchmark indexes, with 98% in the green. Our flagship Tech Titans strategy doubled the S&P 500 within 18 months, including notable winners like Super Micro Computer (+185%) and AppLovin (+157%). Which stock will be the next to soar?

ORLANDO, Florida (Reuters) -TRADING DAY Making sense of the forces driving global markets By Jamie McGeever, Markets Columnist Stocks rose around the world on Wednesday, and bond yields and the dollar fell, as comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent fueled traders’ bets that the Fed will cut interest rates next month, perhaps even by half a percentage point. More on that below. In my column today I suggest that what’s giving Fed Chair Jerome Powell his biggest headache right now is not the pressure or attacks from U.S. President Donald Trump, but the inconclusive economic data. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. 1. Fed cut seen near certain after inflation data, Bessentcomments 2. U.S. embeds trackers in AI chip shipments to catchdiversions to China, sources say 3. Just in time? Manufacturers turn to AI to weather tariffstorm 4. China July bank loans unexpectedly contract for firsttime in 20 years 5. Stablecoins fuel liquidity, not yet money: Mike Dolan Today’s Key Market Moves * FX: Dollar falls again, lowest in nearly three weeks onindex basis. Biggest G10 FX mover is sterling, up 0.5%. * STOCKS: MSCI All Country, Canada, Japan, S&P 500 andNasdaq hit new highs. Chinese stocks now up 16 of last 20sessions, Wall Street’s VIX volatility index falls to 2025 low. * SHARES/SECTORS: Beaten-down healthcare, and basicmaterials sectors lead Wall Street rally, both up around 1.7%. * BONDS: U.S. yields down across the curve, as much as 6bps at the long end. The ’MOVE’ implied volatility index fallsto lowest since January 2022. * COMMODITIES: Oil falls to lowest in more than twomonths. Brent crude touches $65/bbl, WTI dips below $62/bbl. Today’s Talking Points: * Fed policy. In the realms of market pricing, a rate cut next month is now a nailed-on certainty, with traders putting the chances of a quarter point cut at 99.9%. This wager was strengthened by comments from Bessent, who told Bloomberg News a 50-basis point cut was possible. Bessent’s comments are the latest in a growing list of verbal interventions - or outright political interference - from the Trump administration in the business and economics arena it traditionally steers clear of, like the Fed, non-partisan institutions, and private sector companies and banks. * Trump’s Fed nominations. Bessent said early on Wednesday that no fewer than 11 candidates were being considered to replace Powell, whose term expires in May (or, earlier, if he is fired or resigns). The president later shortened that list to three or four. Interestingly, absent from Bessent’s list was current Council of Economic Advisers Stephen Miran, nominated to fill an open Fed board seat with a term that ends in January. * Trump-Putin meeting. The U.S. and Russian leaders are scheduled to meet in Alaska on Friday, a face-to-face which Ukraine’s allies hope will see Trump urge Putin to agree a ceasefire without selling out Kyiv’s interests or carving up its territory. Trump, Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders met in a last-ditch videoconference on Wednesday to lay out Ukraine’s red lines, a call Trump said was "very friendly". France’s Emmanuel Macron said Trump was "very clear" that he wants to achieve a ceasefire in Alaska. Fed more hamstrung by murky data than Trump interference It’s widely believed that U.S. President Donald Trump’s insistence on lower interest rates is what’s making life most difficult for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues. But what’s causing the biggest headache for Fed officials is, in fact, probably more prosaic: economic data. The key challenges facing Powell were encapsulated perfectly on Tuesday by the release of an inconclusive U.S. inflation readout followed by Trump’s latest verbal attack – and threats of a "major lawsuit." Politics aside, most Fed officials agree that rates will fall this year, with the median "dot plot" in the Fed’s June Summary of Economic Projections pointing to 50 basis points of easing through December. Traders are betting heavily that the first move will be in September. But it’s tough to justify that confidence based purely on economic data. While some indicators suggest policy should be eased sooner rather than later, others indicate that would be a high-risk move. Looking at the "totality of the data," to borrow a phrase from Powell, there is no clear signal either way. PLENTY NOISE, FEW SIGNALS Consider the latest U.S. inflation and employment reports, the two most important data sets. On their own, they don’t appear soft enough to warrant the Fed trimming rates right now, but they also aren’t firm enough to dispel the notion that policy easing is only a question of "when" not "if." Annual headline CPI inflation held steady in July at 2.7%, contrary to an expected rise, with month-on-month increases in line with forecasts. But annual core inflation rose more than expected to 3.1%, the highest level since February and still meaningfully above the Fed’s 2% target. Economists calculate that durable goods prices rose 1.7% in the first six months of the year – the biggest six-month rise since 1987, excluding the COVID-19 pandemic. They warn there is likely more of that to come as Trump’s tariffs kick in. "July’s CPI data are probably more worrying under the surface than in the headlines, and we expect the upward pressure to goods inflation to build in the coming months," James Pomeroy, a global economist at HSBC, wrote on Tuesday. Meanwhile, last week’s employment report showed job growth in July was much weaker than anticipated, and, more importantly, downward revisions to the previous two months were among the biggest on record. But these ominous signals were offset by accelerating wage growth, an increase in hours worked, and a meager rise in the unemployment rate. Hardly signs of a shaky labor market. Nevertheless, markets focused more on the softer elements in the jobs data, suggesting investors think the Fed’s bar to easing is much lower than the bar to standing pat. Indeed, the rates market is now pricing in a near-100% chance of a cut at the U.S. central bank’s September 16-17 meeting. RISK MANAGEMENT But markets may be getting ahead of themselves. Powell has indicated that a rise in the unemployment rate is needed for the Fed to act. But that rate is potentially being distorted by post-pandemic labor supply issues - employers’ reluctance to fire workers and Trump’s immigration policies are limiting the number of people looking for work. Regardless, cutting before seeing a meaningful rise in the unemployment rate would be tough to justify, creating a significant communications problem for Powell. And on a more fundamental level, as economist Phil Suttle noted on Tuesday, is preparing to cut rates at full employment just as inflation is accelerating good risk management? This is a particularly apt question when looking at financial markets: the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, gold, and bitcoin are all near record highs, and corporate bond spreads are the tightest in years. This hardly looks like a restrictive policy environment. In that light, patience and caution would appear justified, especially given the added risk of appearing to buckle under Trump’s political pressure. If the Fed wants to cut, Powell could use some cover. Unfortunately for him, he’s unlikely to find that in this noisy data. What could move markets tomorrow? * Australia unemployment (July) * China’s JD.com earnings (Q2) * UK GDP (Q2, preliminary) * UK industrial production (June) * UK trade (June) * Euro zone GDP (Q2, flash estimate) * Euro zone unemployment (Q2) * Euro zone industrial production (June) * U.S. weekly jobless claims * U.S. producer price inflation (July) * U.S. Fed officials on the stump: Richmond Fed PresidentThomas Barkin, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem * U.S. earnings - Cisco Systems, Deere & Company Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. (By Jamie McGeever; Editing by Nia Williams)

By Rae Wee SINGAPORE (Reuters) -The dollar weakened on Wednesday after a tame reading on U.S. inflation bolstered expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, with President Donald Trump’s attempts to extend his grip over U.S. institutions also undermining the currency. U.S. consumer prices increased marginally in July, data showed on Tuesday, in line with forecasts and as the pass-through from Trump’s sweeping tariffs to goods prices has so far been limited. Investors eyeing imminent Fed cuts cheered the data and moved to price in a 98% chance the central bank would ease rates next month, which in turn dragged on the dollar. Against the yen, the dollar was last 0.05% lower at 147.76, while the euro was steady at $1.1676, having risen 0.5% in the previous session. The dollar index last stood at 98.08, after falling roughly 0.5% on Tuesday. "The July CPI report showed less evidence of tariff pass-through to consumer prices...(but) I think a September rate cut is less than certain, probably not as certain as current market pricing," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (OTC:CMWAY). "As the last payroll shows, one report can be sufficient to move the policy debate to one side or another. So I think we still have to wait until the remaining data to print before making a strong case about a rate cut or an on hold decision." U.S. Treasury yields similarly fell on the heightened rate cut expectations, with the two-year yield last at 3.7371%, having swung in a range of nearly 10 basis points on Tuesday. The benchmark 10-year yield was little changed at 4.2965%. [US/] Also eroding investor confidence in the dollar were fresh attempts by Trump to undermine Fed independence, after White House spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday that the U.S. president was considering a lawsuit against Fed Chair Jerome Powell in relation to his management of renovations at the central bank’s Washington headquarters. Trump has been at loggerheads with Powell and has repeatedly lambasted the Fed Chair for not easing rates sooner. The president also hit out at Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, saying the bank had been wrong to predict U.S. tariffs would hurt the economy and questioned whether Solomon should lead the Wall Street institution. Elsewhere, sterling gained 0.03% to $1.3504. Britain’s jobs market weakened again though wage growth stayed strong, according to data on Tuesday, underscoring why the Bank of England is so cautious about cutting interest rates. "(The) UK jobs figures pointed to the labour market remaining in fragile shape," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. "My base case still has the next 25bp cut pencilled in for November, though there is a long way to go, and a lot of data to come, before then." In other currencies, the Australian dollar dipped 0.05% to $0.6526, while the New Zealand dollar fell 0.03% to $0.5953. The Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday cut interest rates as expected, and signalled further policy easing might be needed to meet its inflation and employment goals as the economy lost some momentum. With CMWAY making headlines, savvy investors are asking: Is it truly valued fairly? In a market full of overpriced darlings, identifying true value can be challenging. InvestingPro's advanced AI algorithms have analyzed CMWAY alongside thousands of other stocks to uncover hidden gems. These undervalued stocks, potentially including CMWAY, could offer substantial returns as the market corrects. In 2024 alone, our AI identified several undervalued stocks that later surged by 30 or more. Is CMWAY poised for similar growth? Don't miss the opportunity to find out.

By Davide Barbuscia NEW YORK (Reuters) -Investors are betting harder on a September Federal Reserve interest rate cut after last month’s mild inflation bump, which indicated the pass-through from President Donald Trump’s sweeping import duties to goods prices has so far been limited. July inflation numbers released on Tuesday came in largely within expectations, strengthening traders’ bets the Fed will start cutting rates at its next policy meeting in September, particularly after a weak employment report in July and sharp downward revisions to job figures for May and June. "I think that the market coming in was quietly expecting a hotter number, and it didn’t," said Andrew Szczurowski, co-head of the mortgage and securitized investment team at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. "When you factor in the other side of their (the Fed’s) mandate, then all of a sudden it looks like they’re missing their labor target more than they’re missing their inflation target," he said. Rates futures traders increased bets on a 25 basis point interest rate cut in September after the data release, with the probability of a September cut rising to 98% against about 89% earlier on Tuesday, according to LSEG data. Two-year Treasury yields, which tend to reflect expectations of changes in monetary policy, declined after the data and were last at 3.729%, about two basis points lower on the day. The consumer price index rose 0.2% last month, in line with expectations, and rose 2.7% year on year, below consensus forecasts of 2.8%. Trump used the subdued headline CPI to reinforce his claim that tariffs do not hit consumers, taking aim at Goldman Sachs economists for what he said were bad predictions on the tariff impact. Joseph Lavorgna, counselor to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, said Tuesday’s inflation figures indicated that exporters were largely absorbing tariffs by cutting prices. "Every month, we keep waiting for the inflation that doesn’t present itself, and then people say we need clarity. No, you’ve had six months in a row where the numbers have disappointed to the downside. Effectively, where you thought there would be inflation, there isn’t," he said. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, the CPI rose 0.3%, the biggest gain since January, after climbing 0.2% in June. The so-called core CPI increased 3.1% year-on-year in July after advancing 2.9% in June. Tiffany Wilding, economist at bond manager PIMCO, said she expected core CPI to tick higher to a peak of 3.4% by year-end as tariff-related costs are passed on to consumers. "It’s going to take time for these tariffs to really show up in earnest," said Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at PGIM Fixed Income. "Anyone waiting for this to show up in sort of one big move higher in any given month, that’s not how it’s going to be. It’s going to sort of trickle in," he said. The Fed will have further inputs from August inflation and labor data before its next rate-setting meeting. Antoni has been critical of the BLS, an agency that has come under heightened scrutiny for the eroding quality of the data it produces.

Fed cut would feed inflation and hurt stocks, warns Wall Street forecaster Jim Bianco  CNBC