A thing that I remember vividly from GE2015 is when you'd knock on the door of a never-gonna-be-hit-by-the-mansion-tax house that was never going to be hit by a mansion tax who really thought their house's inflated price meant it might be close to it. Turns out that has spread to officials!
I sometimes feel like I am going mad.
Owning a £1.5m home is not normal in London or the South East of England.
Owning a £1.5m home is not normal in London or the South East of England.
November 20, 2025 at 10:27 AM
A thing that I remember vividly from GE2015 is when you'd knock on the door of a never-gonna-be-hit-by-the-mansion-tax house that was never going to be hit by a mansion tax who really thought their house's inflated price meant it might be close to it. Turns out that has spread to officials!
Kind of amazing how the Tories managed to time GE2015 for basically the only six-month period of real rising wages.
September 8, 2025 at 11:25 AM
Kind of amazing how the Tories managed to time GE2015 for basically the only six-month period of real rising wages.
After the GE2015 polling miss, the inquiry led by Bluesky's favourite survey methodologist @patricksturg.bsky.social, found f2f surveys conducted by @britishelectionstudy.com and British Social Attitudes had got a lot closer to the result than the polling industry. That was not the case in GE2024.
"research using this approach has found that polling errors have remained relatively stable"
New POAL methods brief from Mollie Ruler, @drjennings.bsky.social, and Christopher Wlezien 🚨
They recommend Mean Absolute Error (MAE) to measure polling error
Read here: www.poal.co.uk/POAL_brief_p...
New POAL methods brief from Mollie Ruler, @drjennings.bsky.social, and Christopher Wlezien 🚨
They recommend Mean Absolute Error (MAE) to measure polling error
Read here: www.poal.co.uk/POAL_brief_p...
September 1, 2026 at 12:24 PM
After the GE2015 polling miss, the inquiry led by Bluesky's favourite survey methodologist @patricksturg.bsky.social, found f2f surveys conducted by @britishelectionstudy.com and British Social Attitudes had got a lot closer to the result than the polling industry. That was not the case in GE2024.
The news: 'Technofascists continue to delete the past and lie about the present in order to steal the future.' 💯🎯
They do delete things off the internet too. Tories did it before GE2015.
The entire West has a 'culture of fear is when it comes to illness and grief'. We're taught we're 'worth less'.
They do delete things off the internet too. Tories did it before GE2015.
The entire West has a 'culture of fear is when it comes to illness and grief'. We're taught we're 'worth less'.
My subscriber Q & A is back! Subscribe to send in a question and get an answer later in the week! Plus, some thoughts on other matters:
sarahkendzior.substack.com/p/just-answe...
sarahkendzior.substack.com/p/just-answe...
Just Answering Questions: System Collapse
My subscriber Q & A is back! Along with a few announcements.
sarahkendzior.substack.com
May 26, 2026 at 11:17 PM
The news: 'Technofascists continue to delete the past and lie about the present in order to steal the future.' 💯🎯
They do delete things off the internet too. Tories did it before GE2015.
The entire West has a 'culture of fear is when it comes to illness and grief'. We're taught we're 'worth less'.
They do delete things off the internet too. Tories did it before GE2015.
The entire West has a 'culture of fear is when it comes to illness and grief'. We're taught we're 'worth less'.
I always have the same dream.
I'm walking down a dark alleyway and blocking my path is the Ed Stone. I throw a bottle at it and it shatters against the stone surface. Then it lunges for me.
I wake up in a cold sweat. I go to make my coffee. I look at the mug in my hand. I can't stop screaming.
I'm walking down a dark alleyway and blocking my path is the Ed Stone. I throw a bottle at it and it shatters against the stone surface. Then it lunges for me.
I wake up in a cold sweat. I go to make my coffee. I look at the mug in my hand. I can't stop screaming.
September 27, 2025 at 1:37 PM
I always have the same dream.
I'm walking down a dark alleyway and blocking my path is the Ed Stone. I throw a bottle at it and it shatters against the stone surface. Then it lunges for me.
I wake up in a cold sweat. I go to make my coffee. I look at the mug in my hand. I can't stop screaming.
I'm walking down a dark alleyway and blocking my path is the Ed Stone. I throw a bottle at it and it shatters against the stone surface. Then it lunges for me.
I wake up in a cold sweat. I go to make my coffee. I look at the mug in my hand. I can't stop screaming.
GE2015 & GE2019 don't change this narrative at all, it just reinforces it.
We get Starmerism. "Securonomics", more left wing economics (but still shit). Anti Immigration to "restore trust". Move away from all this University nonsense.
We get Starmerism. "Securonomics", more left wing economics (but still shit). Anti Immigration to "restore trust". Move away from all this University nonsense.
August 8, 2025 at 1:54 PM
GE2015 & GE2019 don't change this narrative at all, it just reinforces it.
We get Starmerism. "Securonomics", more left wing economics (but still shit). Anti Immigration to "restore trust". Move away from all this University nonsense.
We get Starmerism. "Securonomics", more left wing economics (but still shit). Anti Immigration to "restore trust". Move away from all this University nonsense.
And all of us could tell that the March 2014 figures were ludicrous: a means of allowing the govt to say "See, WE have a plan to eliminate borrowing!".
Its incomplete remit was politicization of fiscal number checking *by omission* and may have helped sway GE2015 5/
Its incomplete remit was politicization of fiscal number checking *by omission* and may have helped sway GE2015 5/
October 29, 2024 at 2:31 PM
And all of us could tell that the March 2014 figures were ludicrous: a means of allowing the govt to say "See, WE have a plan to eliminate borrowing!".
Its incomplete remit was politicization of fiscal number checking *by omission* and may have helped sway GE2015 5/
Its incomplete remit was politicization of fiscal number checking *by omission* and may have helped sway GE2015 5/
eh Boris Johnson was mayor for a whole year after GE2015
May 13, 2026 at 8:06 PM
eh Boris Johnson was mayor for a whole year after GE2015
Reform can go broader than Ukip, eg Wales
In July 2024 *very* similar public reputation to Ukip. I asked identical Qs on day after GE2015 & GE2024
V similar results. Reform 2024 did worse on "racist party" (41% yes, 30% no) than Ukip 2015 (40% yes, 43% no).
www.britishfuture.org/reforms-raci...
In July 2024 *very* similar public reputation to Ukip. I asked identical Qs on day after GE2015 & GE2024
V similar results. Reform 2024 did worse on "racist party" (41% yes, 30% no) than Ukip 2015 (40% yes, 43% no).
www.britishfuture.org/reforms-raci...
December 7, 2024 at 7:36 PM
Reform can go broader than Ukip, eg Wales
In July 2024 *very* similar public reputation to Ukip. I asked identical Qs on day after GE2015 & GE2024
V similar results. Reform 2024 did worse on "racist party" (41% yes, 30% no) than Ukip 2015 (40% yes, 43% no).
www.britishfuture.org/reforms-raci...
In July 2024 *very* similar public reputation to Ukip. I asked identical Qs on day after GE2015 & GE2024
V similar results. Reform 2024 did worse on "racist party" (41% yes, 30% no) than Ukip 2015 (40% yes, 43% no).
www.britishfuture.org/reforms-raci...
Andrew Neil is why I stopped watching BBC politics. The biased cover of the GE2015 by him and the Beeb was off the scale, Miliband couldn’t get his message across.
Cameron got good people in positions to control the Beeb.
Cameron got good people in positions to control the Beeb.
February 18, 2025 at 4:43 PM
Andrew Neil is why I stopped watching BBC politics. The biased cover of the GE2015 by him and the Beeb was off the scale, Miliband couldn’t get his message across.
Cameron got good people in positions to control the Beeb.
Cameron got good people in positions to control the Beeb.
I don't think I'll ever forget where I was during GE2015 when Lucy Powell went on radio and said words to the effect that just because Labour's pledges were carved in stone didn't mean that they weren't still going to break them.
September 20, 2025 at 7:58 AM
I don't think I'll ever forget where I was during GE2015 when Lucy Powell went on radio and said words to the effect that just because Labour's pledges were carved in stone didn't mean that they weren't still going to break them.
Fwiw, this was the chart comparing the BES, BSA and polling industry in GE2015. It very much doesn't look like this for GE2024.
September 1, 2026 at 2:37 PM
Fwiw, this was the chart comparing the BES, BSA and polling industry in GE2015. It very much doesn't look like this for GE2024.
Yes, politicization of the OBR is a serious matter.
But even more serious is how its original remit allowed it to give a stamp of respectability to public spending numbers that were frankly ludicrous, for many years. Like in the run up to GE2015 2/
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/b...
But even more serious is how its original remit allowed it to give a stamp of respectability to public spending numbers that were frankly ludicrous, for many years. Like in the run up to GE2015 2/
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/b...
Bloodletting analogies or Don’t get Levels and Rates of Change confused
(all of this puts at too great length what FlipChartRick’s greatest Venn Diagram of the Coalition period says in a single picture. One of the weakest and yet most common arguments you will he…
freethinkecon.wordpress.com
October 29, 2024 at 2:29 PM
Yes, politicization of the OBR is a serious matter.
But even more serious is how its original remit allowed it to give a stamp of respectability to public spending numbers that were frankly ludicrous, for many years. Like in the run up to GE2015 2/
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/b...
But even more serious is how its original remit allowed it to give a stamp of respectability to public spending numbers that were frankly ludicrous, for many years. Like in the run up to GE2015 2/
freethinkecon.wordpress.com/2014/06/13/b...
It is extremely funny that like going into post GE2015, the Greens were properly moving into this position of being the young pop left party since the lib dem protest vote collapsed and they kinda underperformed but then Corbyn fucks it up by becoming Lab leader sucking up that energy on the left
December 2, 2025 at 4:47 PM
It is extremely funny that like going into post GE2015, the Greens were properly moving into this position of being the young pop left party since the lib dem protest vote collapsed and they kinda underperformed but then Corbyn fucks it up by becoming Lab leader sucking up that energy on the left
18 in 2013, probably doesn't vote in the locals.
GE2015, at Uni, won't vote LDM, thinks about LAB, put off and votes GRN.
EURef, Remain, radicalised, put off by Corbyn not being pro EU enough. Joins LDM.
GE2017, Tim please just say gay people are okay FUCK why did i join this stupid party?
GE2015, at Uni, won't vote LDM, thinks about LAB, put off and votes GRN.
EURef, Remain, radicalised, put off by Corbyn not being pro EU enough. Joins LDM.
GE2017, Tim please just say gay people are okay FUCK why did i join this stupid party?
November 28, 2025 at 2:21 PM
18 in 2013, probably doesn't vote in the locals.
GE2015, at Uni, won't vote LDM, thinks about LAB, put off and votes GRN.
EURef, Remain, radicalised, put off by Corbyn not being pro EU enough. Joins LDM.
GE2017, Tim please just say gay people are okay FUCK why did i join this stupid party?
GE2015, at Uni, won't vote LDM, thinks about LAB, put off and votes GRN.
EURef, Remain, radicalised, put off by Corbyn not being pro EU enough. Joins LDM.
GE2017, Tim please just say gay people are okay FUCK why did i join this stupid party?
The Corbyn youth wave thing was a bit overstated at the time, the average age went up slightly when Corbyn became leader. The Corbynite joiners were a mix of young people and older people.
www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/2...
www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/2...
February 11, 2026 at 6:22 PM
The Corbyn youth wave thing was a bit overstated at the time, the average age went up slightly when Corbyn became leader. The Corbynite joiners were a mix of young people and older people.
www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/2...
www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/2...
The next Royal Charter will already be being negotiated. Do you think that at this stage of the process a Conservative gov't wouldn't be complaining about bias and dangling the license fee and the possibility of cuts to get the BBC on side? They did it for two years before agreeing the last one.
GE2015: Party positions on the BBC Charter renewal and licence fee - Media@LSE
Enders Analysis looks at the positions of the UK's major political parties on the future direction of the BBC, including Charter renewal and the Licence Fee.
blogs.lse.ac.uk
June 17, 2026 at 12:28 AM
The next Royal Charter will already be being negotiated. Do you think that at this stage of the process a Conservative gov't wouldn't be complaining about bias and dangling the license fee and the possibility of cuts to get the BBC on side? They did it for two years before agreeing the last one.
There were certainly some appearances of electionforecast.co.uk on mailings in #GE2015 (but don't follow that link, it's not Hanretty/ Lauderdale/Vivyan any more)
Election Forecast – Election Forecast offers data-driven insights and analysis on UK elections, providing accurate predictions of upcoming results.
electionforecast.co.uk
February 4, 2026 at 12:31 PM
There were certainly some appearances of electionforecast.co.uk on mailings in #GE2015 (but don't follow that link, it's not Hanretty/ Lauderdale/Vivyan any more)
totally agree. I've pointed out before that 4 years out from GE2015 Labour (under Ed Miliband) was way ahead of the Tories in the polls. We all know how that panned out. Difference was that absolutely no one was touting Ed as the next PM (except me, i had a FB page with a few hundred members 🤣).
November 13, 2025 at 11:46 AM
totally agree. I've pointed out before that 4 years out from GE2015 Labour (under Ed Miliband) was way ahead of the Tories in the polls. We all know how that panned out. Difference was that absolutely no one was touting Ed as the next PM (except me, i had a FB page with a few hundred members 🤣).
I really did not like Ed until GE2015 made me forget briefly that he was pretty useless however I do think he is a much more confident and dynamic figure now, especially amongst this shower, and would have the added benefit of not trying to win any votes for four years (if he lasted that long)?
November 14, 2025 at 10:49 AM
I really did not like Ed until GE2015 made me forget briefly that he was pretty useless however I do think he is a much more confident and dynamic figure now, especially amongst this shower, and would have the added benefit of not trying to win any votes for four years (if he lasted that long)?
Here are the May 2015 findings (immediately after GE2015) from Survation. Apart from the worse score on "racist" for Reform 2024 (plurality of 41-30 said they are) than Ukip 2015 (40-43 said they were not), the other party reputation scores were remarkably similar for a different brand 9 years on
April 29, 2025 at 4:25 PM
Here are the May 2015 findings (immediately after GE2015) from Survation. Apart from the worse score on "racist" for Reform 2024 (plurality of 41-30 said they are) than Ukip 2015 (40-43 said they were not), the other party reputation scores were remarkably similar for a different brand 9 years on