🔔 Rolling vote share by party in contested by-elections since GE2024
November 3, 2026 at 8:47 PM
🔔 Rolling vote share by party in contested by-elections since GE2024
Scotland Westminster voting intention poll (Norstat/Sunday Times, 25/10/2026). Seat *estimate* (electoral calculus, change since GE2024)
SNP 39 (+30)
LAB 8 (-29)
LD 5 (-1)
CON 5 (-)
You could call it the 'Burnham Bounce'? 👇
SNP 39 (+30)
LAB 8 (-29)
LD 5 (-1)
CON 5 (-)
You could call it the 'Burnham Bounce'? 👇
October 28, 2026 at 12:46 AM
Scotland Westminster voting intention poll (Norstat/Sunday Times, 25/10/2026). Seat *estimate* (electoral calculus, change since GE2024)
SNP 39 (+30)
LAB 8 (-29)
LD 5 (-1)
CON 5 (-)
You could call it the 'Burnham Bounce'? 👇
SNP 39 (+30)
LAB 8 (-29)
LD 5 (-1)
CON 5 (-)
You could call it the 'Burnham Bounce'? 👇
🇬🇧 Anas Sarwar and LABOUR promised ‘70,000 GB Energy jobs for Scotland’ at GE2024
🇬🇧 LABOUR’s GB Energy actually employ a total of 132 people, with around 30 in Scotland
🇬🇧 LABOUR take Scots for absolute mugs
🏴 Are you YES yet ? 🇪🇺
🇬🇧 LABOUR’s GB Energy actually employ a total of 132 people, with around 30 in Scotland
🇬🇧 LABOUR take Scots for absolute mugs
🏴 Are you YES yet ? 🇪🇺
October 27, 2026 at 1:17 PM
🇬🇧 Anas Sarwar and LABOUR promised ‘70,000 GB Energy jobs for Scotland’ at GE2024
🇬🇧 LABOUR’s GB Energy actually employ a total of 132 people, with around 30 in Scotland
🇬🇧 LABOUR take Scots for absolute mugs
🏴 Are you YES yet ? 🇪🇺
🇬🇧 LABOUR’s GB Energy actually employ a total of 132 people, with around 30 in Scotland
🇬🇧 LABOUR take Scots for absolute mugs
🏴 Are you YES yet ? 🇪🇺
1. Burnham won't be happy: "It will not be appropriate for ministers individually to advocate for specific options or opine on the likely outcome of the process"
2. Healey holds a brexity seat with Reform snapping at his heels.
www.pollcheck.co.uk/constituenci...
2. Healey holds a brexity seat with Reform snapping at his heels.
www.pollcheck.co.uk/constituenci...
Rawmarsh and Conisbrough MP John Healey (Labour): GE2024 result, current poll projection
John Healey (Labour) is the MP for Rawmarsh and Conisbrough. GE2024: Labour 49.0%. Current PollCheck projection: Labour 42.0% vs Reform UK 38.8%.
www.pollcheck.co.uk
October 29, 2026 at 8:40 PM
1. Burnham won't be happy: "It will not be appropriate for ministers individually to advocate for specific options or opine on the likely outcome of the process"
2. Healey holds a brexity seat with Reform snapping at his heels.
www.pollcheck.co.uk/constituenci...
2. Healey holds a brexity seat with Reform snapping at his heels.
www.pollcheck.co.uk/constituenci...
I was actually referring to this year - LE2026 and by-elections. Labour’s vote in the Red Wall actually went down in GE2024 - they only won the seats because the Tory vote collapsed to Reform. In any event, the Red Wall only represents about 10% of Labour’s parliamentary seats. Bigger fish to fry.
November 3, 2026 at 10:44 AM
I was actually referring to this year - LE2026 and by-elections. Labour’s vote in the Red Wall actually went down in GE2024 - they only won the seats because the Tory vote collapsed to Reform. In any event, the Red Wall only represents about 10% of Labour’s parliamentary seats. Bigger fish to fry.
After a peak around Brexit, UKIP/Reform support dropped back to v low levels thru 2020, rising thru 2021 to July 2024 to 14% - then faster under Labour, only dropping back after Burnham arrived in July this year as migration levels get pegged back & folk noticed
britpolls.co.uk/polls/histor...
britpolls.co.uk/polls/histor...
UK Historical Polling Data 2019-2026: Voting Intention
UK voting intention polling from 2019 to November 2026. Monthly averages, Chart.js multi-line chart, key inflection points: Covid, Boris resignation, Truss, GE2024, Reform surge. Full data table.
britpolls.co.uk
November 4, 2026 at 1:04 PM
After a peak around Brexit, UKIP/Reform support dropped back to v low levels thru 2020, rising thru 2021 to July 2024 to 14% - then faster under Labour, only dropping back after Burnham arrived in July this year as migration levels get pegged back & folk noticed
britpolls.co.uk/polls/histor...
britpolls.co.uk/polls/histor...
“Imagine a rambling stately home. It has a rickety old electricity system which means that the power is only on in some rooms upstairs is the main bedroom. There, the lights flicker but they do work. Let’s call that room Scotland.” bellacaledonia.org.uk/2026/10/27/t...
The Flickering Lights of an Old Stately Home
A new poll lands in the Inbox: Scotland Westminster voting intention poll (Norstat/Sunday Times, 25/10/2026). Seat *estimate* (electoral calculus, change since GE2024) SNP 39 (+30) LAB 8 (-29) LD 5…
bellacaledonia.org.uk
October 28, 2026 at 10:53 AM
“Imagine a rambling stately home. It has a rickety old electricity system which means that the power is only on in some rooms upstairs is the main bedroom. There, the lights flicker but they do work. Let’s call that room Scotland.” bellacaledonia.org.uk/2026/10/27/t...
Why is this? Well on the one hand services seem less salient - the NHS peaked in salience around GE2024 - 50% of Britons named it as one of their top issues. That’s now fallen to 30%, with a drop in every voter group.
October 26, 2026 at 6:41 PM
Why is this? Well on the one hand services seem less salient - the NHS peaked in salience around GE2024 - 50% of Britons named it as one of their top issues. That’s now fallen to 30%, with a drop in every voter group.
New Westminster MRP:
Labour: 27% / 280 seats (−131)
Reform UK: 24% / 130 seats (+125)
Conservative: 21% / 116 seats (−5)
Lib Dem: 10% / 62 seats (−10)
Green: 10% / 6 seats (+2)
SNP: 3% / 26 seats (+17)
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Good Growth Foundation MRP.
Fieldwork 5 to 10 September 2026, n=10,301.
Labour: 27% / 280 seats (−131)
Reform UK: 24% / 130 seats (+125)
Conservative: 21% / 116 seats (−5)
Lib Dem: 10% / 62 seats (−10)
Green: 10% / 6 seats (+2)
SNP: 3% / 26 seats (+17)
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Good Growth Foundation MRP.
Fieldwork 5 to 10 September 2026, n=10,301.
October 26, 2026 at 2:06 PM
New Westminster MRP:
Labour: 27% / 280 seats (−131)
Reform UK: 24% / 130 seats (+125)
Conservative: 21% / 116 seats (−5)
Lib Dem: 10% / 62 seats (−10)
Green: 10% / 6 seats (+2)
SNP: 3% / 26 seats (+17)
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Good Growth Foundation MRP.
Fieldwork 5 to 10 September 2026, n=10,301.
Labour: 27% / 280 seats (−131)
Reform UK: 24% / 130 seats (+125)
Conservative: 21% / 116 seats (−5)
Lib Dem: 10% / 62 seats (−10)
Green: 10% / 6 seats (+2)
SNP: 3% / 26 seats (+17)
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Good Growth Foundation MRP.
Fieldwork 5 to 10 September 2026, n=10,301.
The Flickering Lights of an Old Stately Home bellacaledonia.org.uk/2026/10/27/t...
The Flickering Lights of an Old Stately Home
A new poll lands in the Inbox: Scotland Westminster voting intention poll (Norstat/Sunday Times, 25/10/2026). Seat *estimate* (electoral calculus, change since GE2024) SNP 39 (+30) LAB 8 (-29) LD 5…
bellacaledonia.org.uk
October 27, 2026 at 9:02 PM
The Flickering Lights of an Old Stately Home bellacaledonia.org.uk/2026/10/27/t...
They can easily be stopped by tactical voting… there have been 95 FPTP elections since GE2024 and Reform have won only **5**…
October 22, 2026 at 2:38 PM
They can easily be stopped by tactical voting… there have been 95 FPTP elections since GE2024 and Reform have won only **5**…
For the users of the #NHS, productivity can be measured in terms of waiting lists. While they have increased recently, the numbers waiting for treatment is less than it was at #GE2024. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... #BBCaq
'Ominous signs' of winter pressures as NHS waiting list grows
NHS winter pressures appear to be building already, with rises in waiting times for planned surgery.
www.bbc.co.uk
October 23, 2026 at 7:55 PM
For the users of the #NHS, productivity can be measured in terms of waiting lists. While they have increased recently, the numbers waiting for treatment is less than it was at #GE2024. www.bbc.co.uk/news/article... #BBCaq
🔔 Turnout vs Home Ownership across 530 standalone Local Council By-elections since GE2024
Turnout tends to be higher where home ownership is higher (r = +0.60).
Turnout tends to be higher where home ownership is higher (r = +0.60).
October 21, 2026 at 4:31 PM
🔔 Turnout vs Home Ownership across 530 standalone Local Council By-elections since GE2024
Turnout tends to be higher where home ownership is higher (r = +0.60).
Turnout tends to be higher where home ownership is higher (r = +0.60).
I think Dems are more willing to understand that the Reps exist and make decisions that influence things than Labour are willing to understand the Tories exist.
The Labour delusion is that Labour is the protagonist of reality and are entirely responsible for what happened in GE2015, GE2024 etc
The Labour delusion is that Labour is the protagonist of reality and are entirely responsible for what happened in GE2015, GE2024 etc
October 17, 2026 at 1:04 PM
I think Dems are more willing to understand that the Reps exist and make decisions that influence things than Labour are willing to understand the Tories exist.
The Labour delusion is that Labour is the protagonist of reality and are entirely responsible for what happened in GE2015, GE2024 etc
The Labour delusion is that Labour is the protagonist of reality and are entirely responsible for what happened in GE2015, GE2024 etc
polling suggests labour are short a majority.
Now a good time to remind brits what happened when theresa mays snap election backfired in 2017?
Spoiler: the DUP, from NI, held the balance of power in UK, kyboshed her soft brexit and backed boris johnson.
Now a good time to remind brits what happened when theresa mays snap election backfired in 2017?
Spoiler: the DUP, from NI, held the balance of power in UK, kyboshed her soft brexit and backed boris johnson.
October 18, 2026 at 12:59 PM
polling suggests labour are short a majority.
Now a good time to remind brits what happened when theresa mays snap election backfired in 2017?
Spoiler: the DUP, from NI, held the balance of power in UK, kyboshed her soft brexit and backed boris johnson.
Now a good time to remind brits what happened when theresa mays snap election backfired in 2017?
Spoiler: the DUP, from NI, held the balance of power in UK, kyboshed her soft brexit and backed boris johnson.
New Westminster MRP, with tactical voting:
Labour: 28% / 353 seats
Reform UK: 21% / 81 seats
Conservative: 18% / 90 seats
Lib Dem: 10% / 70 seats
Green: 9% / 4 seats
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR.
Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October, n=6,699.
Labour: 28% / 353 seats
Reform UK: 21% / 81 seats
Conservative: 18% / 90 seats
Lib Dem: 10% / 70 seats
Green: 9% / 4 seats
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR.
Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October, n=6,699.
October 16, 2026 at 10:45 AM
New Westminster MRP, with tactical voting:
Labour: 28% / 353 seats
Reform UK: 21% / 81 seats
Conservative: 18% / 90 seats
Lib Dem: 10% / 70 seats
Green: 9% / 4 seats
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR.
Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October, n=6,699.
Labour: 28% / 353 seats
Reform UK: 21% / 81 seats
Conservative: 18% / 90 seats
Lib Dem: 10% / 70 seats
Green: 9% / 4 seats
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR.
Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October, n=6,699.
The hard left believed that X was "more left wing economic policy because third way bad"
Blue Labour believed that X was "cracking down on immigrants and asylum seekers"
And Starmer-Burnhamism is a bit of the former and a lot of the latter and the fact we won GE2024 is proof we were right to do it
Blue Labour believed that X was "cracking down on immigrants and asylum seekers"
And Starmer-Burnhamism is a bit of the former and a lot of the latter and the fact we won GE2024 is proof we were right to do it
October 16, 2026 at 4:53 PM
The hard left believed that X was "more left wing economic policy because third way bad"
Blue Labour believed that X was "cracking down on immigrants and asylum seekers"
And Starmer-Burnhamism is a bit of the former and a lot of the latter and the fact we won GE2024 is proof we were right to do it
Blue Labour believed that X was "cracking down on immigrants and asylum seekers"
And Starmer-Burnhamism is a bit of the former and a lot of the latter and the fact we won GE2024 is proof we were right to do it
‘Restore Britain: 8% / 1 seat (+1)
SNP: 3% / 28 seats (+19)
Plaid Cymru: 1% / 5 seats (+1)
Others: 2% / 0 seats (−5)
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR.
Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October 2026, n=6,699.’
SNP: 3% / 28 seats (+19)
Plaid Cymru: 1% / 5 seats (+1)
Others: 2% / 0 seats (−5)
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR.
Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October 2026, n=6,699.’
October 16, 2026 at 10:23 AM
‘Restore Britain: 8% / 1 seat (+1)
SNP: 3% / 28 seats (+19)
Plaid Cymru: 1% / 5 seats (+1)
Others: 2% / 0 seats (−5)
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR.
Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October 2026, n=6,699.’
SNP: 3% / 28 seats (+19)
Plaid Cymru: 1% / 5 seats (+1)
Others: 2% / 0 seats (−5)
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR.
Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October 2026, n=6,699.’
New Westminster MRP, Without tactical voting:
Labour: 27% / 344 seats
Reform UK: 21% / 86 seats
Conservative: 19% / 85 seats
Green: 10% / 4 seats
Lib Dem: 10% / 69 seats
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR.
Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October 2026, n=6,699.
Labour: 27% / 344 seats
Reform UK: 21% / 86 seats
Conservative: 19% / 85 seats
Green: 10% / 4 seats
Lib Dem: 10% / 69 seats
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR.
Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October 2026, n=6,699.
October 16, 2026 at 10:50 AM
New Westminster MRP, Without tactical voting:
Labour: 27% / 344 seats
Reform UK: 21% / 86 seats
Conservative: 19% / 85 seats
Green: 10% / 4 seats
Lib Dem: 10% / 69 seats
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR.
Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October 2026, n=6,699.
Labour: 27% / 344 seats
Reform UK: 21% / 86 seats
Conservative: 19% / 85 seats
Green: 10% / 4 seats
Lib Dem: 10% / 69 seats
Changes w/GE2024
Via: Electoral Calculus / Find Out Now MRP for PLMR.
Fieldwork 25 September to 2 October 2026, n=6,699.
Really 138 by-elections since May? Not since GE2024? That seems high.
October 16, 2026 at 12:23 AM
Really 138 by-elections since May? Not since GE2024? That seems high.
Current Polling Average:
🌹 LAB: 27.4% (-7.2) | Highest since Dec 24
➡️ RFM: 22.9% (+8.2) | Lowest since Dec 24
🌳 CON: 20.5% (-3.9) | Highest since Apr 25
🔶 LDM: 10.1% (-2.5)
🌍 GRN: 9.5% (+2.6) | Lowest since Sep 25
◼️ RES: 3.8%`(New)
Changes w/ GE2024.
electionmaps.uk/polling/vi
🌹 LAB: 27.4% (-7.2) | Highest since Dec 24
➡️ RFM: 22.9% (+8.2) | Lowest since Dec 24
🌳 CON: 20.5% (-3.9) | Highest since Apr 25
🔶 LDM: 10.1% (-2.5)
🌍 GRN: 9.5% (+2.6) | Lowest since Sep 25
◼️ RES: 3.8%`(New)
Changes w/ GE2024.
electionmaps.uk/polling/vi
October 14, 2026 at 10:35 AM
Current Polling Average:
🌹 LAB: 27.4% (-7.2) | Highest since Dec 24
➡️ RFM: 22.9% (+8.2) | Lowest since Dec 24
🌳 CON: 20.5% (-3.9) | Highest since Apr 25
🔶 LDM: 10.1% (-2.5)
🌍 GRN: 9.5% (+2.6) | Lowest since Sep 25
◼️ RES: 3.8%`(New)
Changes w/ GE2024.
electionmaps.uk/polling/vi
🌹 LAB: 27.4% (-7.2) | Highest since Dec 24
➡️ RFM: 22.9% (+8.2) | Lowest since Dec 24
🌳 CON: 20.5% (-3.9) | Highest since Apr 25
🔶 LDM: 10.1% (-2.5)
🌍 GRN: 9.5% (+2.6) | Lowest since Sep 25
◼️ RES: 3.8%`(New)
Changes w/ GE2024.
electionmaps.uk/polling/vi
Conservative + Labour combined vote share and Reform UK since the 2024 general election
GE2024 (GB): Con + Lab 59.0%, Reform UK 14.7%
Lowest Con + Lab: 35.0% (7-poll average, 6 Mar 2026)
Now: Con + Lab 47.7%, Reform UK 23.1%
(7-poll average, 13 Oct 2026)
GE2024 (GB): Con + Lab 59.0%, Reform UK 14.7%
Lowest Con + Lab: 35.0% (7-poll average, 6 Mar 2026)
Now: Con + Lab 47.7%, Reform UK 23.1%
(7-poll average, 13 Oct 2026)
October 14, 2026 at 8:50 AM
Conservative + Labour combined vote share and Reform UK since the 2024 general election
GE2024 (GB): Con + Lab 59.0%, Reform UK 14.7%
Lowest Con + Lab: 35.0% (7-poll average, 6 Mar 2026)
Now: Con + Lab 47.7%, Reform UK 23.1%
(7-poll average, 13 Oct 2026)
GE2024 (GB): Con + Lab 59.0%, Reform UK 14.7%
Lowest Con + Lab: 35.0% (7-poll average, 6 Mar 2026)
Now: Con + Lab 47.7%, Reform UK 23.1%
(7-poll average, 13 Oct 2026)
