Economist and theorist Robin Hanson applies his Great Filter and Grabby Aliens framework to estimate that the prior odds some UAP are non-anthropogenic lie between roughly 1-in-10,000 and 1-in-1,000. He outlines a concrete alien scenario involving panspermia siblings, a civilization-wide rule against expansion, and a soft-power domestication strategy to explain why advanced non-human intelligence might appear only at the edge of human visibility.