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shipwreck75.bsky.social
Iranian leaders assess that Trump will not risk the economic consequences of restarting the conflict and will soften U.S. positions to reach an agreement.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
thesoufancenter.org
April 10, 2026 at 1:14 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
Israel Considering Regime Change in Iran as U.S. Weighs Its Options
thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
June 18, 2025 at 4:06 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
Iran appears to be pursuing an asymmetric war of attrition focused on exhausting U.S., Israeli, and allied defensive resources.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
Iran’s Asymmetric Escalation After Khamenei - The Soufan Center
A day after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Tehran appears to have substantially escalated its response, demonstrating the continued ability to maintain operational command...
thesoufancenter.org
March 2, 2026 at 12:54 AM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
Iran’s deliberate targeting of the energy sector introduces a new and dangerous dimension to this war.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
Iran Raising the Costs of the Conflict by Targeting Critical Energy Infrastructure - The Soufan Center
The war with Iran has entered its third day, with Tehran expanding its attacks against U.S. military targets and assets, while also broadening its strikes on oil and energy facilities across the regio...
thesoufancenter.org
March 3, 2026 at 2:02 AM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
Russia's barrage of drones over European airspace represents only a fraction of the broader toolkit the Kremlin has employed for years to destabilize and disrupt Europe —an approach commonly described as Russia’s “hybrid war” against the West

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https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2025-october-8
t.co
October 8, 2025 at 4:06 PM
jacobware.bsky.social
For the Soufan Center's essential IntelBrief series, @colinpclarke.bsky.social and I look closely at last week’s school shooting in #Nashville — finding that it conforms to several developing trends in global terrorism. thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
The Nashville Attack Displayed Several Hallmarks of Modern Terrorism
News chyrons flashed across the screen last week with reports of another school shooting in the United States, this time in Nashville, Tennessee. But this wasn’t just the latest in America’s macabre n...
thesoufancenter.org
January 30, 2025 at 2:24 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
Acting on the assumption that the Strait will never return to its pre-war status, regional leaders are investing heavily in alternative routes and mechanisms that bypass the waterway.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
Strait of Hormuz Remains Focal Point as U.S.-Iran Deal Still Elusive - The Soufan Center
As the defunct June U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) formally expires on Monday, U.S. and Iranian assessments of traffic flows through the Strait of Hormuz will determine the next steps in ...
thesoufancenter.org
August 17, 2026 at 4:03 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
Libya Emerges as an Arena for U.S.-Russia Competition-Soufan Center
thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
March 31, 2025 at 3:51 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
The world’s largest humanitarian logistics hub, the International Humanitarian City in Dubai has been acutely constrained, undermining one of the most critical nodes in the global humanitarian supply chain.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
The Global Humanitarian Fallout of the U.S.-Iran War - The Soufan Center
Despite the ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, that has so far held for the past month, the global humanitarian community has found little relief, if any, as the disruptions unleashed by t...
thesoufancenter.org
May 7, 2026 at 12:16 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
Despite the White House’s claims, as of Wednesday, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains essentially unchanged.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
An Already Tenuous Ceasefire in Iran Hovers on the Verge of Collapse - The Soufan Center
On Wednesday morning, hours after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran, Israel conducted a coordinated wave of strikes across Lebanon, reportedly launching about 100 airstrikes in 10 minutes, hitting Beirut, the Beqaa Valley and southern Lebanon. Many in the densely populated city of Beirut were caught off guard by the […]
thesoufancenter.org
April 9, 2026 at 11:19 AM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
Iran’s ability to close the Strait of Hormuz has provided it greater strategic benefits and deterrent capability than its missile and drone strikes.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
Iran’s Missile and Drone Arsenal Remains Potent Despite Five Weeks of Intensive Strikes - The Soufan Center
At the outset of Operation Epic Fury, President Trump defined one key objective of the operation as “destroy[ing] their missiles and raz[ing] their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally a...
thesoufancenter.org
April 6, 2026 at 4:05 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
Saudi Arabia is employing a combination of alliance-building, diplomatic engagement, and military action to confront the mounting threats on all its borders posed by Iran and its Axis of Resistance coalition.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
Saudi Arabia Responds to Encirclement - The Soufan Center
Pressuring the Arab Gulf monarchies militarily has been central to Iran’s war strategy. From its own territory, Iran has launched missiles and drones on targets in Saudi Arabia, aiming particularly at...
thesoufancenter.org
August 10, 2026 at 12:43 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
Great read from the Soufan Center:

The fallout from a failed state in Iran, especially one still controlled by a hardline and battle-tested IRGC core, would reverberate for decades.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
After the Guns Fall Silent, a Failed State in Iran Could Breed an Insurgency - The Soufan Center
After more than a month of war between the United States and Israel against Iran, the regime in Tehran has been battered mercilessly, yet many experts and the U.S. intelligence community believe that ...
thesoufancenter.org
April 1, 2026 at 4:04 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
It is almost certain that the Islamic State in Syria will seek to capitalize upon any deal, painting al-Sharaa as an Israeli and American stooge and denigrating him in the group’s propaganda.

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https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2025-september-25
t.co
September 25, 2025 at 7:15 PM
drjchernov.bsky.social
My latest IntelBrief for The Soufan Center on why repatriation of women & children from al Hol & Roj- if done w/ the necessary assessments, rehabilitation & reintegration programs-holds the greatest promise for diffusing the ISIS threat in the camps & the region.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
Avoiding a Resurgent Islamic State: Repatriation, Rehabilitation & Reintegration
The Islamic State is prioritizing freeing its operatives and supporters from SDF-controlled prisons and detention camps, seeing that as a necessary step for the group’s resurgence. To that end, they’v...
thesoufancenter.org
January 8, 2025 at 4:31 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
A U.S. decision to lead a military coordination center to monitor the Gaza ceasefire is intended to attract regional and global participation in the security arrangements needed to stabilize postwar Gaza.

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https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2025-october-14
t.co
October 14, 2025 at 4:41 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
Continuing to degrade the Houthis is likely a prerequisite to any broader military campaign against Iran.

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https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2025-march-17/
t.co
March 17, 2025 at 6:58 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
The Houthi movement in Yemen is currently the most active and effective Axis member and continues to engage in kinetic actions against Israel and shipping in the Red Sea.-Soufan Center

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https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2025-july-17
t.co
July 17, 2025 at 7:19 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
A cluster of recent attacks on Jewish communities and U.S.-linked assets signals an operational shift toward deniable, low-cost operations for the sake of psychological impact.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
Iran War Exacerbates the Terrorist Threat Landscape in Europe - The Soufan Center
The ongoing war in Iran is a disruptive threat multiplier for Europe’s current terrorism landscape. Rather than generating clear-cut, attributable plots, actors affiliated with the Iranian regime are ...
thesoufancenter.org
April 17, 2026 at 11:31 AM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
The members in Iran’s Axis of Resistance coalition are adjusting their responses to significant setbacks and constraints imposed by their domestic political environments and external actors.-Soufan Center

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https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2025-july-17
t.co
July 17, 2025 at 12:08 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
The increasing involvement of Mexican cartels in Africa's meth trade is a likely direct effect of the increasing constraints on Latin American production sites and smuggling routes amidst a U.S.-led counternarcotics campaign

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
Cartel Networks are Establishing a Greater Foothold in Africa - The Soufan Center
Last week, the South African Police Service (SAPS) Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (DPCI), widely known as the country’s elite ‘Hawks Unit,’ conducted a raid on a rural farm in Swartrugge...
thesoufancenter.org
June 16, 2026 at 1:02 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
Soufan Center: The fertilizer crunch is felt globally, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere with planting season in full swing, but its effects on global food supply may become apparent as soon as the fall.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
One Month In: Economic Imbroglio and Supply Chain Disintegration - The Soufan Center
A month into the Iran War, hostilities show no signs of letting up and the realities of disrupted global supply chains and destroyed energy assets are setting in. The Houthis, the Iran-backed group in...
thesoufancenter.org
March 31, 2026 at 4:04 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
The Iran War has renewed a global focus on energy security and supply chain chokepoints, and increased Russian and Chinese activities in the Arctic is accelerating the focus on exploration in the High North.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
A Geopolitical Blindspot: China’s Activity in Antarctica - The Soufan Center
The Iran War has renewed a global focus on energy security and supply chain chokepoints — from the Strait of Hormuz to the Malacca Strait. In addition, increased Russian and Chinese activities in the ...
thesoufancenter.org
April 22, 2026 at 10:48 AM
drjchernov.bsky.social
My latest #IntelBrief for The Soufan Center, examining the rise of Nihilistic Violent Extremism and the True Crime Community in #SoutheastAsia. 1/3

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
Nihilistic Violent Extremism in Southeast Asia - The Soufan Center
Youth radicalization is becoming an issue of increasing concern in Southeast Asia. Much of the contemporary threat comes from nihilistic violent extremism, notably from adherents to something known as...
thesoufancenter.org
December 3, 2025 at 6:17 PM
shipwreck75.bsky.social
A combined military offensive over the weekend, featuring forces from al-Qaeda's Sahelian affiliate JNIM and the FLA, a secessionist group in northern Mali, threatened to topple the ruling military junta in the capital of Bamako.

thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2...
Al-Qaeda Affiliate in the Sahel Could Topple the Government in Mali - The Soufan Center
A combined military offensive over the weekend, featuring forces from al-Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a secessionist gr...
thesoufancenter.org
April 27, 2026 at 10:32 AM