humans have half-decent intuitions about who and what to trust, but bad/nonexistent intuitions about how software systems work
November 29, 2024 at 11:27 PM
humans have half-decent intuitions about who and what to trust, but bad/nonexistent intuitions about how software systems work
And for this I thank God; for all have doubts; many deny; but doubts or denials, few along with them, have intuitions.
September 27, 2026 at 4:47 PM
And for this I thank God; for all have doubts; many deny; but doubts or denials, few along with them, have intuitions.
Personal counterexamples: In at least two cases — home market effect and liquidity trap — I built little models to confirm my intuitions (didn't believe in either) and the models refuted those intuitions, in ways that now seem totally ... intuitive
Here's Bryan Caplan writing about math in economics.
Seems very wrong to me. I wonder what the quickest refutation is that would make sense to most practicing economists.
www.betonit.ai/p/economath_...
Seems very wrong to me. I wonder what the quickest refutation is that would make sense to most practicing economists.
www.betonit.ai/p/economath_...
November 17, 2024 at 9:18 PM
Personal counterexamples: In at least two cases — home market effect and liquidity trap — I built little models to confirm my intuitions (didn't believe in either) and the models refuted those intuitions, in ways that now seem totally ... intuitive
What Brooks means when he says "values" are a set of gut intuitions shared by conservatives. Those intuitions do not actually reflect reality & cause disaster whenever they are translated to policy, but to people like Brooks they are primal, inarguable, the atomic units of politics.
September 6, 2025 at 7:56 PM
What Brooks means when he says "values" are a set of gut intuitions shared by conservatives. Those intuitions do not actually reflect reality & cause disaster whenever they are translated to policy, but to people like Brooks they are primal, inarguable, the atomic units of politics.
this expresses my intuitions on this very well
do not be so deluded to think your pet doomsday scenario is so unique as to beat historical precedent of the fractally complex ecosystem adapting under pressure
September 28, 2026 at 1:23 AM
this expresses my intuitions on this very well
through all the thick mists of the dim doubts in my mind, divine intuitions now and then shoot, enkindling my fog with a heavenly ray
September 27, 2026 at 2:47 PM
through all the thick mists of the dim doubts in my mind, divine intuitions now and then shoot, enkindling my fog with a heavenly ray
and if you call out the national guard and tell them to, against their training, their mission, and likely the intuitions of the service members, use force against protesters, there is a good chance you are on the path to losing face, with no other way to escalate. (3/?)
June 8, 2025 at 12:52 AM
and if you call out the national guard and tell them to, against their training, their mission, and likely the intuitions of the service members, use force against protesters, there is a good chance you are on the path to losing face, with no other way to escalate. (3/?)
GLP-1s are like LLMs in that people have wildly off base opinions about them rooted in moral intuitions and preconceived ideas
May 24, 2026 at 12:23 PM
GLP-1s are like LLMs in that people have wildly off base opinions about them rooted in moral intuitions and preconceived ideas
Perhaps if either of them possessed a trace-element of strategic foresight, rather than a jumble of nasty intuitions, they wouldn't get themselves into this kind of situation.
March 8, 2026 at 11:58 PM
Perhaps if either of them possessed a trace-element of strategic foresight, rather than a jumble of nasty intuitions, they wouldn't get themselves into this kind of situation.
Incidentally, on many of these questions you can do science! A lot of ethics sits downstream from intuition, and there are ways to e.g. poll about people's moral intuitions. We can also do checks for consistency and implications.
September 26, 2026 at 11:24 AM
Incidentally, on many of these questions you can do science! A lot of ethics sits downstream from intuition, and there are ways to e.g. poll about people's moral intuitions. We can also do checks for consistency and implications.
i think that if you see an anonymous account on a bot-ridden social media network say something that specifically confirms your worst intuitions and fears about your political opponents or rivals, then you should consider the possibility that what you’re reading and reacting to isn’t authentic
October 20, 2024 at 3:22 PM
i think that if you see an anonymous account on a bot-ridden social media network say something that specifically confirms your worst intuitions and fears about your political opponents or rivals, then you should consider the possibility that what you’re reading and reacting to isn’t authentic
So weird we dropped all social norms around basic decency in the name of liberty and free speech and disrupting legacy intuitions and then immediately got a pedo crime boss president.
July 30, 2025 at 12:00 AM
So weird we dropped all social norms around basic decency in the name of liberty and free speech and disrupting legacy intuitions and then immediately got a pedo crime boss president.
i think a lot of people's incorrect intuitions that "boat = not heavy" and "enormous reinforced concrete structure = very heavy" are leading them astray when thinking about the key bridge collapsing
March 26, 2024 at 3:17 PM
i think a lot of people's incorrect intuitions that "boat = not heavy" and "enormous reinforced concrete structure = very heavy" are leading them astray when thinking about the key bridge collapsing
True but also polygraphs are very normalized in US intelligence culture despite being near total bullshit largely used to express the polygrapher’s own “intuitions” which in turn are also bullshit
Imagine serving your country as a soldier for decades, rising to the height of the profession, and then being forced, by a drunkard TV talk show host with a hairstylist and beautician, to sit for a polygraph like some kind of common criminal
September 5, 2026 at 4:53 PM
True but also polygraphs are very normalized in US intelligence culture despite being near total bullshit largely used to express the polygrapher’s own “intuitions” which in turn are also bullshit
You'll ignore this, but every time you tweet angrily about crap like that Nuzzi piece you're confirming NYT editors' intuitions/incentivizing more of it. The entire intellectual/journo model here is, "Does this person get people angry? Yes? OK they're provocative/get talked about. Write about her."
November 14, 2025 at 5:58 PM
You'll ignore this, but every time you tweet angrily about crap like that Nuzzi piece you're confirming NYT editors' intuitions/incentivizing more of it. The entire intellectual/journo model here is, "Does this person get people angry? Yes? OK they're provocative/get talked about. Write about her."
GUYS
April 15, 2026 at 9:32 PM
GUYS
The thing about Yarvin is the thing about Dugin is the thing about all these halfwit faux pop sophists. You're a fascist with racist narcissistic intuitions, be a fascist with racist narcissistic intuitions. Stop thinking you're being cute adding extra steps and calling it a philosophy
September 25, 2025 at 3:28 AM
The thing about Yarvin is the thing about Dugin is the thing about all these halfwit faux pop sophists. You're a fascist with racist narcissistic intuitions, be a fascist with racist narcissistic intuitions. Stop thinking you're being cute adding extra steps and calling it a philosophy
indeed! i'm adducing True Hit as an example of devs lying and poisoning their players' intuitions
September 28, 2026 at 12:44 AM
indeed! i'm adducing True Hit as an example of devs lying and poisoning their players' intuitions
I do think that that NYT piece about incredibly ignorant but nonetheless regretful trump voters should lead people to recalibrate their intuitions about political messaging. 1
April 29, 2026 at 1:21 AM
I do think that that NYT piece about incredibly ignorant but nonetheless regretful trump voters should lead people to recalibrate their intuitions about political messaging. 1
A big part of the "vibe shift." The way genAI was initially presented triggered ethical intuitions about "creativity" and "copying" that aren't triggered by Claude Code.
(With deep respect for Hayes personally), I think it's the same technology, and human ethical intuitions are just confused. But …
(With deep respect for Hayes personally), I think it's the same technology, and human ethical intuitions are just confused. But …
Seems to me there is a huge distinction between AI applications that are basically working towards full natural lanugage programming, task management etc and AI applications to *make new stuff*. The former seems both more promising as an actual useful tech and also way way less ethically dubious
January 13, 2026 at 5:27 PM
A big part of the "vibe shift." The way genAI was initially presented triggered ethical intuitions about "creativity" and "copying" that aren't triggered by Claude Code.
(With deep respect for Hayes personally), I think it's the same technology, and human ethical intuitions are just confused. But …
(With deep respect for Hayes personally), I think it's the same technology, and human ethical intuitions are just confused. But …
The Illustrated DeepSeek-R1
Spent the weekend reading the paper and sorting through the intuitions. Here's a visual guide and the main intuitions to understand the model and the process that created it.
newsletter.languagemodels.co/p/the-illust...
Spent the weekend reading the paper and sorting through the intuitions. Here's a visual guide and the main intuitions to understand the model and the process that created it.
newsletter.languagemodels.co/p/the-illust...
January 27, 2025 at 8:22 PM
The Illustrated DeepSeek-R1
Spent the weekend reading the paper and sorting through the intuitions. Here's a visual guide and the main intuitions to understand the model and the process that created it.
newsletter.languagemodels.co/p/the-illust...
Spent the weekend reading the paper and sorting through the intuitions. Here's a visual guide and the main intuitions to understand the model and the process that created it.
newsletter.languagemodels.co/p/the-illust...
The Trump-Epstein Emergency Isn't in the Files
#Trump has distorted the political landscape so badly that it's warping the moral intuitions of people and institutions of account.
#USA #uspoli
open.substack.com/pub/brianbeu...
#Trump has distorted the political landscape so badly that it's warping the moral intuitions of people and institutions of account.
#USA #uspoli
open.substack.com/pub/brianbeu...
The Trump-Epstein Emergency Isn't in the Files
Trump has distorted the political landscape so badly that it's warping the moral intuitions of people and institutions of account.
open.substack.com
December 6, 2025 at 4:47 PM
The Trump-Epstein Emergency Isn't in the Files
#Trump has distorted the political landscape so badly that it's warping the moral intuitions of people and institutions of account.
#USA #uspoli
open.substack.com/pub/brianbeu...
#Trump has distorted the political landscape so badly that it's warping the moral intuitions of people and institutions of account.
#USA #uspoli
open.substack.com/pub/brianbeu...
"you americans just can't let go of your religious intuitions about the world"
August 2, 2025 at 1:42 PM
"you americans just can't let go of your religious intuitions about the world"
I will go further: The dream of the open public Internet was fueled by elite humanist, democratic intuitions about the nature of Man, and by taking those intuitions to their logical conclusions and seeing the horror that results we have discredited humanism and democracy as concepts.
I’m having trouble articulating this, but it feels like a decade and a half of widespread social media use has actually made the average intelligent person much more aware of How People Are
August 21, 2026 at 1:37 AM
I will go further: The dream of the open public Internet was fueled by elite humanist, democratic intuitions about the nature of Man, and by taking those intuitions to their logical conclusions and seeing the horror that results we have discredited humanism and democracy as concepts.