Ja vielä tämä:

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https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

Eilen kuolleiden osuus nousi 35 prosenttiin eilen parantuneista + eilen kuolleista. Viimeisten 7 vrk keskiarvo on samalla tasolla (27.3%) kuin kumulatiivinen arvo (28.3%).

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The share of deaths (as % of deaths + recoveries) rose to 35% yesterday. The 7-day average (27.3%) is at the same level as the cumulative number (28.3%).

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Ensimmäinen kuolema oli 21 vrk ja ensimmäinen parantuminen todettiin 22 vrk ensimmäisen sairaustapauksen havaitsemisen jälkeen.

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5)
Next step: to make the new case growth rate negative. Otherwise the epidemic will not stop. A tighter quarantine may be in the offing.

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Cumulative dead now represent 27.4% of the sum of cum. recovered and cum. dead.

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A more detailed look at dead as % of (dead and recovered). The blue line is the daily rate of dead / (dead+recovered) as percent. All figures are currently converging to a level of 27%.

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Kuolleiden osuus kuolleiden ja parantuneiden summasta on parantunut alun tilanteesta, ja on nyt vakiintunut noin 27% tasolle (harmaa viiva).

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Yksityiskohtaisempi kuva kuolleiden suhteesta kuolleiden ja parantuneiden summaan. Alun kehityksen jälkeen kuolleisuus on vakiintunut noin 27% tasolle. Huom. parantuminen saattaa kestää kauemmin, eli luvut tulevat ehkä myöhemmin.

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The first death took place 21 days, and the first recovery 22 days after the first reported confirmed case on 31 Jan.

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4)
... and 1521 fewer cases (-47%) on 11 March.

Model: y = 29.184 x exp(day x 0.2354)

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4)
Seuraava vaihe: saada uusien tartuntojen kasvu miinukselle. Muuten epidemia (sin+kelt+pun) ei pääty. Tiukempi karanteeni ehkä tulossa Italiassa seuraavaksi.

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Valtiot ympäri maailman valmistautuvat sulkemaan koulut. Koulu on paikka jossa virus leviää.

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https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-06/coronavirus-update-keeping-kids-off-school-is-the-right-idea

The world's fastest growing coronavirus epidemic is in Iceland, where the number of patients grew 91% daily between 2 March and 5 March. Switzerland and Norway are just behind.

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Overall situation in Italy. New confirmed cases did not grow yesterday (red line, read from right scale). Most patients under treatment; recovered and dead come to 15.5% of cum confirmed.

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Yleiskuva Italian tilanteesta. Uusien sairaustapausten kasvu lähes pysähtyi 6. maaliskuuta (punainen viiva). Yhteensä 84.5% potilasta on hoidettavana ja 15.5% joko parantunut tai kuollut.

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Vaikka keskimääräinen %-kasvu on suht vakio (punainen), suuret luvut johtavat karanteeniin, kun terveydenhuolto ei enää selviydy niistä.

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3)
As a result, there were 979 fewer new cases on 10 March (-38%) than predicted by an exponential growth regr model based on data from 21 February to 9 March ...

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3)
Tulos: 979 uutta sairaustapausta vähemmän 10.3. (-38%) kuin regressiomallin ennuste, ja 1521 tapausta vähemmän 11.3., yhteensä 2500 henkeä.

Regressio: y = 29.184 x exp(day x 0.2354)

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A short analysis of the situation in Italy. Thread.
Daily growth of confirmed cases slowed to 20.2% on 7 March, the slowest rate so far.

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Yhteenveto Italian tilanteesta. Thread.

Sairaustapausten päiväkasvu on pienentynyt lähes joka päivä, ja on nyt koko epidemian alhaisimmalla tasolla (20.2%).

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Uusien sairaustapausten määrä nousi jyrkästi 7.3., yli 1200 uutta sairaustapausta (keltainen).

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The number of new confirmed cases grew strongly on 7 March, more than 1200 new cases (yellow).

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Sama ilman log scalea.

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Same with normal y-axis:

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