#MacroPolicy
Economist Julia Coronado, the founder and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives, on “Marketplace” moments ago:

“We do now expect a recession to begin sometime in the second half of this year.”
April 4, 2025 at 12:55 PM
Something about the combo of “here are several equities that have to be considered when making policy” and “if you find this one case unacceptable it’s on you to find an alternative macropolicy that I agree treats the problem with acceptable seriousness” in that JD Vance post is breaking my brain.
April 16, 2025 at 5:01 AM
Inflation-targeting (IT) central banks fared no better in controlling the 2021-2023 inflation than non-IT central banks, according new paper from IMF.
www.imf.org/en/publicati...
We need a new macropolicy framework. WIll be working on this over the next two years with my team @iipp-ucl.bsky.social
November 12, 2025 at 2:33 PM
15 graphs for MacroPolicy course in 2025 #econsky
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
January 24, 2025 at 8:16 PM
Economists are sounding alarms. Goldman Sachs noted that “markets are underpricing 2025–26 political risk,” while MacroPolicy Perspectives’ Julia Coronado warned: “Any attempt to remove Powell would undermine rate credibility and could trigger capital flight.”
April 21, 2025 at 8:08 PM
Central banks preparing rate cuts while inequality widens is a cynical joke. Lower rates won’t fix structural financial rot — they delay consequences so the exposure hits unnoticed. #EconomicTruth #Inequality #MacroPolicy
December 7, 2025 at 10:29 PM
15 graphs for macropolicy course in 2025
econbrowser.com/archives/202...
Macroeconomic Policy Lecture 1 – Graphs for 2025 | Econbrowser
econbrowser.com
January 24, 2025 at 6:22 PM
Tariffs will cause 'massive shock' to U.S. cost of living and will reshape global trade: Expert
www.msnbc.com/chris-jansin...
Tariffs will cause ‘massive shock’ to U.S. cost of living and will reshape global trade: Expert
NBC News’ Christine Romans breaks down the latest on the market reaction to President Trump's tariffs. MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC founder Julia Coronado, New York Times chief White House corresponde...
www.msnbc.com
April 3, 2025 at 7:22 PM
Great that @jomichell.bsky.social article, based on his keynote at the 2022 FMM conference, on (Keynesian) macropolicy in times of supply-side constraints is now available on open access!
New open access article in EJEEP: "Macroeconomic policy at the end of the age of abundance".

A write-up of my FMM keynote on the implications of ongoing supply disruption for progressive/Keynesian policy.

Thanks to @andrewwatteu.bsky.social for facilitating!

www.elgaronline.com/view/journal...
www.elgaronline.com
December 1, 2023 at 3:15 PM
'High uncertainty': How Trump’s 'intentional disruption' is creating chaos on Wall Street
In Silicon Valley, a popular slogan is "move fast, break things." But Wall Street and the New York Stock Exchange, in contrast, favor stability and predictability — and they have little appetite for chaos. Chaos, however, has been a prominent ingredient of President Donald Trump's first two months back in the White House — from tariff proposals to mass layoffs of federal workers. And according to Julia Coronado, president and co-founder of MacroPolicy Perspectives (an economic consulting firm), the chaos of Trump's second term is making Wall Street very nervous. In a Q&A interview with Politico's Sam Sutton published on March 31, a frustrated Coronado lamented, "We had a pretty great setup for Trump. Why would he mess with that?" READ MORE: 'Very bad': How Trump's tariffs are causing misery on both sides of the Canadian border When Politico asked Coronado, a U.S. Federal Reserve economist, what she was "certain of," she replied, "I'm certain of absolutely nothing." Coronado told Politico, "I'm not even certain which direction interest rates are going next. I have baseline scenarios, and ways to think about it, but we are seeing just a tremendous and intentional disruption to the status quo." The Wall Street insider stressed that Wall Street doesn't like uncertainty. "When there is low confidence in markets," Coronado told Politico, "you tend to see these ebbs and flows where you get some periods of volatile repricing. When the uncertainty is high, it's not like active investors are putting a lot of capital to work or making big bets. That means the market is more driven by trend followers — passive money. So you get repricing, and then a period of calm." READ MORE: 'There are methods': How Trump could try to stay in power after his second term ends Coronado added, "That's what I think we're seeing right now. We have this volatile moment (where) investors are tuning into the fact that — at a minimum — Trump 2.0 is going to be quite a bit different from Trump 1.0. There are definite risks to growth and — maybe — he's not as sensitive to the stock market as we thought." MacroPolicy Perspectives noted some of the ways in which Trump is promoting chaos during his second term — and how that can affect Wall Street. "There are so many dimensions of risk right now," Coronado warned. "If you pull back your spending from a bunch of sectors and then they stop hiring and investing, does that cause a recession? Do tariffs lead to a burst of inflation that dampens consumer demand and crimps profit margins? These are the standard economic impacts of the policies that we can understand with the greatest clarity. But there are a couple of other elements." Coronado continued, "One — let me categorize it this way — is the breakdown in the rule of law. This administration is aggressively taking actions that are being challenged in courts. They're ignoring court decisions. That can affect the economy. It can affect market functioning. It’s hard to say when and exactly how, but we always talk about one of the reasons (for) U.S. exceptionalism is stability, rule of law, clarity of contract law and a stable operating environment. We're really disrupting that right now." READ MORE: 'Unbelievable': Agencies 'scramble' as this ruby red state loses federal funding Read Politico's full interview with Julia Coronado at this link.
dlvr.it
March 31, 2025 at 12:21 PM
"In terms of policy outlook, I’m certain of absolutely nothing," says @jc-econ.bsky.social of MacroPolicy Perspectives. "I’m not even certain which direction interest rates are going next. We are seeing just a tremendous and intentional disruption to the status quo." www.politico.com/news/magazin...
‘They’re Laying the Groundwork for Things to Get Worse’: Why Trump’s Economic Messaging Isn’t Calming Wall Street
A conversation with market watcher Julia Coronado, who says investors are worried that Trump’s appetite for disruption is higher in his second term.
www.politico.com
March 31, 2025 at 9:23 PM
"Pretty much every prong of [Trump’s] policy looks like it’s going to threaten their mandate," said Julia Coronado, a former Fed economist who now runs MacroPolicy Perspectives, referring to the central bank’s aims to keep inflation low and stable and maintain a healthy labour market."
Donald Trump’s pledges seep into Federal Reserve’s outlook
Tariff threats partly to blame for ‘striking’ increase in central bank’s US inflation forecasts, say economists
on.ft.com
December 19, 2024 at 2:11 PM
NBC News’ Christine Romans breaks down the latest on the market reaction to President Trump's tariffs. MacroPolicy Perspectives LLC founder Julia Coronado, New York Times chief White House correspondent Peter Baker, and CNBC retail reporter Melissa Repko join Chris...

youtu.be/faBi7uJZhcs?...
Tariffs will cause ‘massive shock’ to U.S. cost of living and will reshape global trade: Expert
YouTube video by MSNBC
youtu.be
April 3, 2025 at 9:10 PM
8/ "ASEAN growth" will keep appearing in summaries and communiqués.

But 2026 is the year the internal sorting became too visible to paper over.

The divergence isn't a warning. It's a structural reading of the region as it actually is.
.
#ASEAN #SEAsia #Thailand #MacroPolicy #EconomicDivergence
Police Noob Chase
ALT: Police Noob Chase
static.klipy.com
June 1, 2026 at 11:25 PM
Vance is not even offering a macropolicy--he is saying, it's fine that we deported this guy unlawfully, in defiance of a 2019 court order saying he couldn't be removed to El Salvador, because look at all these new immigrants over the past four years
Something about the combo of “here are several equities that have to be considered when making policy” and “if you find this one case unacceptable it’s on you to find an alternative macropolicy that I agree treats the problem with acceptable seriousness” in that JD Vance post is breaking my brain.
April 16, 2025 at 6:01 AM
Great piece from @shadib.bsky.social and @minnpost.bsky.social! "Government data is really the gold standard for inflation and it’s needed for markets to function,” said Courtney Shupert, economist at MacroPolicy Perspectives.

www.minnpost.com/economy/2025...
Filling data gaps as government shutdown halts economic reports - MinnPost
Some data on consumption, production and hiring can be estimated using private sources, but inflation remains a blind spot.
www.minnpost.com
October 24, 2025 at 12:26 PM
Jobs Shock Sends Stocks Higher | Open Interest 8/7/2026

Get a jump start on the US trading day with Dani Burger on "Bloomberg Open Interest." Stocks rise after data showed US employers unexpectedly cut jobs in July. Meanwhile, oil wavers as prospects for a lasting agreement to reopen the Strait of…
Jobs Shock Sends Stocks Higher | Open Interest 8/7/2026
Get a jump start on the US trading day with Dani Burger on "Bloomberg Open Interest." Stocks rise after data showed US employers unexpectedly cut jobs in July. Meanwhile, oil wavers as prospects for a lasting agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz remain elusive. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, BlackRock’s Rick Rieder and Julia Coronado of MacroPolicy Perspectives react to the surprising jobs report and what it means for the economy and Fed policy.
fllics.com
August 7, 2026 at 5:43 PM
Financial stability remains key to a resilient economy. Fed highlights strong household finances but notes rising stress in subprime credit. Vigilance on asset valuations, liquidity, and leverage continues. #FinancialStability #Fed #Economy #RiskManagement #MacroPolicy
May 25, 2025 at 2:16 AM
“Economists generally understand… the housing price problem… is really mainly about housing supply…. A lot of this comes down to local laws.” —Julia Coronado, founder and president of MacroPolicy Perspectives & prof. @ UT Austin. www.marketplace.org/shows/market...
The hottest invite in American economics - Marketplace
It's basically an economist’s version of a Taylor Swift concert: the Kansas City Fed's annual Jackson Hole Symposium.
www.marketplace.org
August 19, 2024 at 6:22 PM
Los estadounidenses luchan con riesgos financieros, grandes compras en una economía pobre

No existe el momento perfecto para una gran decisión. Pero cuando contacté a Julia Coronado, el presidente de la firma de consultoría de economía Macropolicy Perspectives, para preguntar si es un buen momento…
Los estadounidenses luchan con riesgos financieros, grandes compras en una economía pobre
No existe el momento perfecto para una gran decisión. Pero cuando contacté a Julia Coronado, el presidente de la firma de consultoría de economía Macropolicy Perspectives, para preguntar si es un buen momento para tomar un riesgo financiero significativo, al menos en el sentido relativo, su respuesta de correo electrónico sucinta fue reveladora: "Lol, la respuesta corta es no!" Dado lo complicadas que pueden ser las transacciones importantes, hay muchas advertencias y contraejemplos.
www.dtpnews.com
June 15, 2025 at 8:44 AM
3/3 The real question is whether policy adapts, or stays bound by orthodoxy while pressures build.

𝐑𝐞𝐚𝐝 𝐑 𝐆𝐮𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐮𝐫𝐭𝐡𝐲’𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐥𝐮𝐦𝐧 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐁𝐚𝐬𝐢𝐬𝐏𝐨𝐢𝐧𝐭: 𝐖𝐡𝐲 𝐔𝐬𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐑𝐁𝐈’𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐲 𝐑𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐈𝐬 𝐍𝐨 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐫 𝐇𝐞𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐲 👇

#IndiaEconomy #MacroPolicy
BasisPointInsight.com - Why Using RBI’s Contingency Reserves Is No Longer Heresy by R. Gurumurthy
Given current conditions, there is scope for using contingency reserves, doing away with capital gains, and reducing the size of government borrowing to send signals to external capital waiting to see...
basispointinsight.com
March 18, 2026 at 12:51 PM
1/2 After Kevin Warsh’s G30 Spring Lecture, Chair Raghuram G. Rajan commented that he “pretty much” agreed with everything Warsh said.

#FederalReserve #WarshEra #CentralBankReform #PolicyCredibility #BalanceSheetTheory #MacroPolicy
BasisPointInsight.com - What Will the Fed's "Warsh Era" Bring? by Mohamed A. El-Erian
The next Federal Reserve chair will inherit an institution that, by any historical measure, is deeply fractured internally and lacks credibility externally. By strengthening the Fed’s analytical frame...
basispointinsight.com
February 26, 2026 at 12:11 PM
6/7 From the Latin American debt crises to the Asian crisis, from COVID to the Ukraine shock, currency instability has often intensified economic and financial stress rather than cushioning it.

#MacroPolicy
BasisPointInsight.com - Floating: A Double-Edged Sword by Michael Debabrata Patra
Floating exchange rates were meant to absorb shocks. This essay shows how, in emerging economies, they have often magnified crises instead. by Michael Debabrata Patra, BasisPointInsight.com
basispointinsight.com
February 25, 2026 at 4:54 AM
5/6 At a time when currency commentary swings between panic and classification debates, this piece reframes the discussion around institutional responsibility.

The exchange rate is not merely a market price. It is a stability variable.

#MacroPolicy
BasisPointInsight.com - Why Exchange Rate Stability Matters More Than Ever for India by Michael Debabrata Patra
As alarmist calls on the rupee clash with the IMF’s own labels, this piece asks why exchange rates matter, and why stability cannot be left to markets alone. by Michael Debabrata Patra, BasisPointInsi...
basispointinsight.com
February 16, 2026 at 4:22 AM
The MPC cut rates despite the rupee’s wobble, signalling what policy has long implied. The currency is simply not a factor in the RBI’s rate calculus.

Read BasisPoint’s Groupthink.👇

#RBI #RateCuts #RBIMPC #Rupee #MacroPolicy #IndiaEconomy
BasisPointInsight.com - RBI’s Rate Cut Shows Rupee is No Obstacle to Rate Cuts by BasisPoint Groupthink
The MPC cut rates despite the rupee’s wobble, signalling what policy has long implied. The currency is simply not a factor in the RBI’s rate calculus. by BasisPoint Groupthink, BasisPointInsight.com
basispointinsight.com
December 5, 2025 at 2:20 PM