And keep in mind, states and localities can't borrow, a further threat to macrostability. The feds can borrow, and can prop up state governments.

6/

Thank you to the editors at @ssrn.bsky.social for publishing this article I wrote a few years ago in the SSRN repository this past week. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....

3/4 If this is a crisis in formation, not yet in full view, where is the clarity of direction today?

Can multiple objectives be pursued without a visible hierarchy?

#MacroStability #PolicyTradeoffs

ssrn.com/papers/abstr...

1/3 Rate hikes feel like resolve. But what if they're the wrong medicine entirely?

When inflation is driven by supply shocks — oil, geopolitics, a weakening rupee — raising borrowing costs doesn't fix the source. It just slows the economy on top of an external hit.

#MonetaryPolicy #MacroStability

3/3 With supply shocks still uncertain and second-round effects unclear, the RBI appears more wary of growth risks than headline inflation, even as it keeps a close watch on the rupee and external vulnerabilities.

Read 𝐔𝐩𝐚𝐬𝐧𝐚 𝐁𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐝𝐰𝐚𝐣’s column for BasisPoint 👇

#CentralBanking #MacroStability

3/3 🔹Does the currency, rather than inflation, now set the outer boundary for monetary policy?

𝐀𝐛𝐡𝐞𝐞𝐤 𝐁𝐚𝐫𝐮𝐚 decodes the monetary policy signals: 𝐑𝐁𝐈’𝐬 𝐐𝐮𝐢𝐞𝐭 𝐃𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐬𝐡 𝐓𝐢𝐥𝐭 𝐌𝐞𝐞𝐭𝐬 𝐚 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐢𝐥𝐞 𝐑𝐮𝐩𝐞𝐞 𝐃𝐞𝐟𝐞𝐧𝐜𝐞👇

#CurrencyRisk #MacroStability

3/3 In a world of supply shocks and shifting narratives, policy is no longer about direction, but about optionality.

Read 𝐀𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐡𝐚 𝐆𝐮𝐝𝐰𝐚𝐧𝐢’s column for BasisPoint: 𝐑𝐁𝐈 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐲𝐬 𝐨𝐧 𝐇𝐨𝐥𝐝, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐒𝐢𝐠𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐬 𝐅𝐥𝐞𝐱𝐢𝐛𝐢𝐥𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐒𝐡𝐢𝐟𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐋𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐬𝐜𝐚𝐩𝐞👇

#CentralBanking #PolicyFlexibility #MacroStability

1/2 RBI’s latest policy reads like a risk manual, not a growth roadmap. It clearly lays out how oil shocks and geopolitical stress can squeeze demand through the external account, financial conditions and corporate balance sheets.

#RBI #MonetaryPolicy #PolicySignals #CentralBanking #MacroStability

2/4 The challenge is no longer about managing individual shocks, but about understanding how they reinforce each other across balance sheets, markets and institutions.

#MacroStability #IndiaEconomy

The world changes in real time. So should strategy.
Waiting for perfect conditions is how companies get left behind.
Adaptability isn’t a trait—it’s an operating principle.
Build it in, or risk falling out.
hbr.org/2024/03/how-...