Markets The ECB as expected raised its policy rate by 25 bps to 2.25%. After already pondering the impact of the war in the Middle East in April, new projections indicate that the conflict is generating inflationary pressures throughout the economy. The baseline inflation projection was upwardly revised and is now set to average 3%, […] The post Sunrise Market Commentary appeared first on ActionForex.

Markets The US 30-yr yield today broke key resistance at 5.15%/5.17% (respective tops of 2025 and 2023) to currently trade at the highest level since 2007. The 5.5% area is the next technical reference on the chart. It’s where the top levels of 2003, 2004 and 2007 all collide. The US 10-yr yield moves past […] The post Sunset Market Commentary appeared first on ActionForex.

Markets Oil prices erased yesterday’s bounce back towards the $100 barrel. There’s little news to report on the ongoing talks between the US and Iran. Markets take it as a positive sign. Iran’s state TV did say it obtained a draft of the initial unofficial MoU framework which included the withdrawal of US military forces […] The post Sunset Market Commentary appeared first on ActionForex.

Markets The protracted sell-off in (especially ultra-long) bonds since the start of the US-Iran war took a breather today. Two ‘anecdotical topics’ maybe helped to at least temporarily ease pressure. A Japanese 20-y government bond auction received above average investor interest. It’s much too early to draw any conclusion whether LT Japanese bonds have found […] The post Sunset Market Commentary appeared first on ActionForex.

Markets While upward pressure on oil prices eased throughout the day yesterday, (natural) gas prices kept adding to the recent gains. The Dutch TTF future hit the €50/MWh for the first time in a month, up 25% from their recent lows (which in turn were about a third higher than pre-war levels). That followed reports […] The post Sunrise Market Commentary appeared first on ActionForex.

Markets The US Treasury curve bear steepened yesterday, with yields rising by 2.5 bps (2-yr) to 5.7 bps (30-yr). The move almost fully reversed the temporary relief by the US Treasury’s announcement to upscale liquidity providing buyback operations at longer tenors. They immediately met with criticism both because of their limited scale and by exposing […] The post Sunrise Market Commentary appeared first on ActionForex.

Markets Bear steepening turned into bear flattening in Europe yesterday. Daily changes on the German yield curve ranged between +2.4 bps (30-yr) and +5 bps (2-yr). EU swap rates added 0.9 bps (30-yr) to 4.5 bps (2-yr). The US/Iran stalemate and higher energy prices offer a first explanation. Both parties don’t seem to be on […] The post Sunrise Market Commentary appeared first on ActionForex.

Markets The very long end of global yield curves continues to catch most attention. The US yield curve bear steepened yesterday in absence of any particular economic or monetary input. Daily changes on the curve ranged between +0.6 bps (2-yr) and +4.7 bps (30-yr). The US 30-yr yield yesterday topped 5.3% for the first time […] The post Sunrise Market Commentary appeared first on ActionForex.