While spreads on the sovereign's dollar debt are stretched, asset managers see room for local bonds to climb further as interest rates fall

#Mexico #Mbonos #ClaudiaSheinbaum #VanEck #Afores #RoyalBank #MorganStanley #Banxico #PantheonMacroeconomics #RBC #NeubergerBerman #Pemex #debt

📊 Consider modestly defensive MXN structures (put spreads/seagulls) around U.S.–Mexico policy headlines, funded against constructive medium-term carry. Watch positioning and options skew for signs of stress.
- Mbonos: Governance noise tends to pressure the belly; bias to steeper curves if (4/10)

Banxico cools: -50bp Jun to 7.75%. Minutes hint smaller trims, Heath dissents. CPI 4.5% easing; core sticky (target Q3-26). Peso yields 8% real carry even with remittances -16% YoY. Fed cuts priced, tariffs threat—look for -25bp Aug. Long Mbonos, hedge MXN. #Banxico #MXN

Euro sinks to 3-wk low as Trump mulls 30% tariffs on EU/Mex. Peso shrugs: +11% YTD at 18.7/$, EM champ after Banxico cuts & 61.8% Fib bounce. King $ down 10.8% H1. JPM boosts MSCI-EM goal 1250, likes BRL/MXN carry. Play: ride Mbonos, short AUD/long MXN. #FX #EM #PesoParty