As of 11:31 AM ET, the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) is up 0.29% to 27,201, hitting a new intraday record high, while the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC)

Over the last four years, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) have been practically unstoppable in their continued

The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices closed higher on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrials reaching an 8-week high. The rally was driven ... Read more

On March 26, the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) index officially entered correction territory, trading more than 10% below its recent peak. The

The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) has been on a roll for more than two years now, with its gains fueled by improving economic conditions, the dawn of artificial intelligence (AI), an uncontested U.S. election, and recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Bank. After rising 43% in 2023, the tech-focused index has gained roughly 31% in 2024 (as of this writing).

Getty Images The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) has been driven to new heights as the ongoing bull market continues. In fact, each of the major market indexes hit a new all-time high on Mond…

What's faster than a speeding bullet, more powerful than a locomotive, and able to leap tall buildings in a single bound? No, it's not Superman. It's the stock market anytime President Donald Trump is in the White House. During Trump's first, non-consecutive term, the timeless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC), and technology-propelled Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) rallied 57%, 70%, and 142%, respectively. Since the president's second-term inauguration, these indexes have gained an additional 23%, 28%, and 32%, respectively (as of the closing bell on Aug. 24). Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue » While the stock market typically advances under most presidents, the annualized returns of the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite are higher under Trump than under most presidents since the late 1890s. The stock market has soared under President Trump. Image source: Official White House Photo by Shealah Craighead, courtesy of the National Archives. But these gains under President Trump have also occurred amid historic bouts of volatility. During the unforeseen COVID-19 crash, the broad-based S&P 500 shed 34% of its value in 33 calendar days. Likewise, the "tariff tantrum" in early April 2025 witnessed the S&P 500 lose more than 10% of its value over just two trading sessions. It begs the question: Is a stock market crash imminent under President Donald Trump? While short-term directional moves in Wall Street's major stock indexes can't be guaranteed, 85 years of historical precedent offers an answer -- and investors might not be thrilled with it. Trump's second term has been packed with geopolitical/major events Since Donald Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20, 2025, he's been somewhat of a magnet for major geopolitical and historical events. There was the aforementioned tariff tantrum, involving the April 2025 unveiling of sweeping global tariffs and higher reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries deemed to have unfavorable trade imbalances with America. The U.S. also bombed nuclear facilities in Iran in June 2025, removed Venezuela's President, Nicolas Maduro, in early January 2026, and began military operations against Iran at the end of February 2026. Shortly after the Trump-led Iran war began, Carson Group's Chief Market Strategist, Ryan Detrick, published a data set to X (formerly Twitter) examining the performance of the benchmark S&P 500 at various intervals following more than three dozen stock market shock events since the start of 1940. Using data from S&P Dow Jones Indices, CFRA, and Carson Group's own research, Detrick and his team determined that, on average, the S&P 500 gained 3% one year after a market shock event officially began. Furthermore, the S&P 500 was higher following 65% of qualifying shock events. Although a 3% gain is well below the long-term annualized return of the broad-based S&P 500, it's nevertheless a positive outcome amid heightened periods of uncertainty. Based solely on the headline figure from Detrick's data set, a stock market crash doesn't appear likely under President Trump. However, there's a bit more nuance to Carson Group's data set than meets the eye. Image source: Getty Images. One scenario makes stock market crashes likelier, and Trump is overseeing it right now Though nearly two-thirds of geopolitical and major market shock events spanning more than 85 years were followed by S&P 500 gains after 12 months, several of the losing events shared a common theme: energy supply disruption. In October 1956, Britain, France, and Israel invaded Egypt to regain control of the Suez Canal, which Egypt had nationalized in July 1956. The closure of the Suez Canal disrupted oil shipments from the Middle East to Western Europe. The S&P 500 was lower by nearly 12% one year later. The Oil Embargo of 1973 was an even bigger shock to Wall Street. Arab members of OPEC stopped selling oil to the U.S. and other allies of Israel, leading to a petroleum shortage and substantially higher fuel costs. The benchmark S&P 500 lost 35% of its value over the next year. The ongoing Iran war features the largest energy supply disruption in modern history. Shortly after Trump approved military attacks against Iran, the latter closed the Strait of Hormuz to virtually all maritime traffic. This effectively halted the daily movement of a fifth of the world's petroleum liquids (about 20 million barrels/day). Energy supply shocks are the one geopolitical/major historical event that history shows Wall Street struggles to put in the back seat. While this doesn't mean a stock market crash is in any way imminent or guaranteed under President Trump, the likelihood of an elevator-down move amid the largest energy disruption in modern history is certainly heightened. Making matters worse, evidence is mounting that Iran-war-driven Trumpflation has spilled beyond the energy sector. The price stickiness of Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, which excludes volatile food and energy costs and provides economists with a clearer view of long-term price trends, has been stuck at roughly 3.3%-3.4% for months. This suggests that businesses are incurring higher production and transportation costs as a result of the Strait of Hormuz's closure, which are being passed on to consumers. If Trump-driven inflation (i.e., Trumpflation) entrenches itself in the broader economy, persistently elevated inflation would make outsize stock market returns unlikely. While there's no imminent threat of a stock market crash under Donald Trump, the historical puzzle pieces do suggest a heightened likelihood of an elevator-down move and/or a substantial pullback in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite. Should you buy stock in S&P 500 Index right now? Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $440,710!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,335,252!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 978% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 213% for the S&P 500. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built by individual investors for individual investors. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of August 30, 2026. Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Is a Stock Market Crash Imminent Under President Donald Trump? More Than 85 Years of Historical Precedent Offers an Answer. was originally published by The Motley Fool

In October, Wall Street celebrated the two-year anniversary of the current bull market. Since this year began, the mature stock-driven Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth stock-powered Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) have respectively surged by 19%, 28%, and 31%, as of the closing bell on Dec. 4. They've also hit multiple all-time closing highs.

For more than two years, the stock market has been practically unstoppable. Last year, the iconic Dow Jones industrial (Djindices: ^Dji)wide base S&P 500 (Snpindex: ^GSPC)and inspired by innovation Nasdaq compound (Nasdaqindex: ^ixic) Galopó higher by 13%, 23%and 29%, respectively, with the three multiple rates of record closure. Investors do not need to dig too deeply to locate the catalysts that feed this rally extended in shares.

Year to date, the broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) has advanced 13%, and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) has added 14%. But the next stock market downturn is only a matter of time. In the near term, elevated oil prices tied to the Iran conflict, potential interest rate hikes, soaring bond yields, and midterm elections are sources of uncertainty that could drag stocks lower (or even cause a market crash).

As of 11:37 AM ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) is down 0.67% to 53,325.23, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) has slipped 0.50% to 7,708.89, and the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) is trading 0.44% lower at 26,467.18 as a surprisingly strong employment report sparks renewed interest rate anxiety. Gold is down 1.15% to $4,487.60, while the 10-Year Treasury yield has risen 1 basis point to to 4.77%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) rose 0.22% to 53,463, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) gained 0.21% to 7,708, and the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) edged 0.16% higher to 26,331 as the major indexes halted a three-day slide following an easing of bond market pressure. Today's biggest moves Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) shares more than doubled and Merck (NYSE:MRK) gained ground after the partners announced positive late-stage trial results for a personalized mRNA cancer vaccine.

The S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) fell 0.50% to 7,747, the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) slipped 0.31% to 26,647, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) lost 0.51% to 53,460 as indices drifted near record levels ahead of pivotal retail corporate earnings reports. Gold prices rose 0.80% to $4,472.90 as of U.S. market close, and the 10-Year Treasury yield climbed 0.05% to 4.68% while Industrials led sector gainers, Communication Services finished as the primary laggard, and Utilities also fell.

As of 11:39 AM ET, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) has fallen 0.21% to 7,782.65, and the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) is down 0.50% to 26,664.30 as

The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX:^IXIC) gained 0.54% to 26,588, and the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX:^GSPC) rose 0.26% to 7,749 after inflation data reassured traders. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES:^DJI) slipped 0.04% to 53,770. Gold prices rose 0.60% to $4,407.44 as of U.S. market close, and the 10-Year Treasury yield gained 0.004% to 4.69%. Industrials led the sector gainers, while consumer cyclicals and communication services lagged.

After record-breaking growth so far this year, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) have wobbled over the past few weeks -- and many investors are feeling conflicted about what's coming next. Around 45% of U.S. investors are optimistic about the market's next six months, according to a June 2026 survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, compared with 36% who are pessimistic and 19% who are neutral.

Key Points Intel received an investment from the U.S. government and SoftBank. Applovin's revenue increased by 77% year over year in the second quarter. IDEXX Laboratories' strong second quarter caused the company to raise its full-year guidance. 10 stocks we like better than Intel › The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) is one of the U.S. stock market's three major indexes, along with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. It contains virtually every stock listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange and has been the best-performing index of the three over the past decade by a significant margin.

Technological actions have increased in 2024. The technological sector may have made a break in recent weeks, but the Nasdaq composite (Nasdaqindex: ^Ixic) The market index is still in the balance just below the highest records that he reached in December. But the prices of the unwilling actions have not reached every corner of the technological market. A couple of legendary leaders in the sector are exchanged with significant discounts with their 52 weeks.