FX Options Expiries + GEX/DEX Data:

Working view into & after the cut

1. Pre-cut (now → 10:00 ET)
Expect “pin & drift” mechanics:
- USDJPY gravitates toward ¥ 143.00 as dealers gamma-hedge
- GBPUSD steadies around 1.3500
- USDCHF hugs 0.8525.

#Forex #NYCut

Next Week

- Keep watching next week’s U.S. durable-goods & PCE

- only a hot print that lifts the 2-yr can bend USDJPY trajectory.

#Forex #NYCut

Inter-market confirmation

- DXY down ~0.6 %, EUR +0.5 %, GBP +0.7 % —dollar selling is broad, not isolated to yen.

- US breakeven inflation ↓ despite real-yield pop yesterday → long-end compression today not $-supportive.

- No funding stress: USD/JPY cross-currency basis unchanged.

#Forex #NYCut

FRESH DATA - Thesis unchanged, only firmer:

- Softer building permits chip another bp off the US-JP 2-yr gap, backing the move toward the ¥142.0 option wall early next week
- Rallies into 143s remain sells while the spread stays below 3.30 pp

#Forex #NYCut

NYcut OP
2/14 USD/JPY 151.00 $1.3bn

EFTA01479618.jpg
#epsteinweb #efta01479618
https://epsteinweb.org

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#epsteinweb #efta01461764
https://epsteinweb.org

今日のNYCUT最高値158.0にタッチしたら爆笑してしまう（大きめなのを含めて）

NY-Cut Map | Mon 26 May 25 05:10 ET

#USDCHF 0.8205

- — no DTCC strikes ≥$250 m (γ-flat)
- USD carry tailwind
- US-CH 10 Y +420 bp

#NYcut #FX #CROW2.0

NY-Cut Map | Mon 26 May 25 05:10 ET

#GBPUSD 1.3561

- — no DTCC strikes ≥£200 m (γ-flat)
- Range bias while vols muted
- UK-US 10 Y +17 bp

#NYcut #FX #CROW2.0

NY-Cut Map | Mon 26 May 25 05:10 ET

#USDJPY 142.83

- — no DTCC strikes ≥¥500 m (γ-flat)
- Liquidity light; headline-driven
- US-JP 10 Y +301 bp

#NYcut #FX #CROW2.0

NY-Cut Map | Mon 26 May 25 02:40 MT

#USDCHF 0.8214

- no DTCC strikes ≥$250 m (γ-flat)
- USD carry tailwind
- US-CH 10 Y +421 bp

#NYcut #FX #CROW2.0

NY-Cut Map | Mon 26 May 25 02:40 MT

#GBPUSD 1.3564

- no DTCC strikes ≥£200 m (γ-flat)
- Range bias while vols light
- UK-US 10 Y +17 bp

#NYcut #FX #CROW2.0

NY-Cut Map | Mon 26 May 25 02:25 MT

#USDJPY 142.85

- 142 ¥0.61 b • 143 ¥0.74 b • 144 ¥1.00 b (2.35 b)
- Short γ ⇢ mean-revert toward 143-144
- US-JP 10 Y spread ≈ +300 bp (4.509 % – 1.513 %) → carry tailwind

#USDJPY #NYcut #CROW2.0

Working path:

- Rest of today: ¥142.4–142.9 range as NY-cut flows settle

- After the weekend: gravity toward ¥142.0 strike; a clean break invites 141.5

- Fade rallies toward 143.3–143.6 while the 2-yr gap stays sub-3.30 pp.

#Forex #NYCut

3. Gamma vacuum below ¥143.00 + next magnet ¥142.00 favours a drift toward 142.0–141.8 into early next week.

4. Upside risk limited: would need a front-end yield spike (UST 2-yr > 4.10 %, gap ≥ 3.40 pp) plus dealer buy-back above 144.0 to reverse momentum.

#Forex #NYCut

Bottom-line thesis unchanged: front-end yield-spread compression + short-γ positioning = rallies are sells; gravity remains lower, first real target ¥ 142.00 early next week.

#Forex #NYCut