"parlay" means "accumulator" and "juice" means "overround"¹, but this is also true in British football betting.
¹ calculated slightly annoyingly differently because of the way American odds are quoted
¹ calculated slightly annoyingly differently because of the way American odds are quoted
How America’s favorite sports bet is fueling sportsbook profits
Parlays are becoming more popular, accounting for an increasing share of the money wagered on sports, according to a Post analysis of betting data. Bettors lose billions a year on these bets.
www.washingtonpost.com/sports/inter...
Parlays are becoming more popular, accounting for an increasing share of the money wagered on sports, according to a Post analysis of betting data. Bettors lose billions a year on these bets.
www.washingtonpost.com/sports/inter...
Americans can’t stop betting parlays. Sportbooks are cashing in.
As betting booms, parlays are accounting for an increasing share of the money wagered on sports, according to a Washington Post analysis of state data.
www.washingtonpost.com
October 9, 2025 at 3:43 PM
"parlay" means "accumulator" and "juice" means "overround"¹, but this is also true in British football betting.
¹ calculated slightly annoyingly differently because of the way American odds are quoted
¹ calculated slightly annoyingly differently because of the way American odds are quoted
"Next Senate Democratic Leader?" is a 120.7% book on Kalshi. Every point over 100 is the house's, taken from whoever trades, on both sides.
https://theoverround.com/m/KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01
https://theoverround.com/m/KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01
October 7, 2026 at 1:00 PM
"Next Senate Democratic Leader?" is a 120.7% book on Kalshi. Every point over 100 is the house's, taken from whoever trades, on both sides.
https://theoverround.com/m/KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01
https://theoverround.com/m/KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01
What is overround in betting and how to work it out
What is overround in betting and how to work it out
Overround is the built-in margin bookmakers add to betting markets, shown as implied probabilities exceeding 100%. Learn how to calculate it and why it matters for bettors.
britbrief.co.uk
September 30, 2026 at 7:40 PM
What is overround in betting and how to work it out
Every comparison site on the internet takes money to reorder its list. We take the money and refuse the reorder. That refusal is the entire product.
October 7, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Every comparison site on the internet takes money to reorder its list. We take the money and refuse the reorder. That refusal is the entire product.
Punters are not betting against each other, except on the exchanges and the odds there in the most efficient betting market are very similar to the bookies, even with their overround.
October 4, 2026 at 2:02 PM
Punters are not betting against each other, except on the exchanges and the odds there in the most efficient betting market are very similar to the bookies, even with their overround.
Very late to the party on the new Gambling Commission data but seen a few people talking about how racing betting is in crisis and there is a huge black hole in finances and so on but if you look at actual revenues not turnover, which is in part a function of overround, then guess what?
December 12, 2024 at 2:27 PM
Very late to the party on the new Gambling Commission data but seen a few people talking about how racing betting is in crisis and there is a huge black hole in finances and so on but if you look at actual revenues not turnover, which is in part a function of overround, then guess what?
Yeah, I think it's a mix of that and aggressively banning anyone who looks like they might remotely know what they are doing. So if the overround isn't jumped enough you won't lose too much.
October 9, 2025 at 4:59 PM
Yeah, I think it's a mix of that and aggressively banning anyone who looks like they might remotely know what they are doing. So if the overround isn't jumped enough you won't lose too much.
He has an arm around sentinel’s overround stomach, gently caressing him.
September 21, 2025 at 10:12 PM
He has an arm around sentinel’s overround stomach, gently caressing him.
I would imagine the answer would be something like "jump up the overround and assume they won't notice"
October 9, 2025 at 4:53 PM
I would imagine the answer would be something like "jump up the overround and assume they won't notice"
The bookies are even harsher on Wales. An average of the major bookies out there gives them just a 6% chance of winning – along with a 98% chance of a French win (welcome to the bookies overround everyone!).
#GuinnessSixNations #FRAvWAL
#GuinnessSixNations #FRAvWAL
January 30, 2025 at 3:25 PM
The bookies are even harsher on Wales. An average of the major bookies out there gives them just a 6% chance of winning – along with a 98% chance of a French win (welcome to the bookies overround everyone!).
#GuinnessSixNations #FRAvWAL
#GuinnessSixNations #FRAvWAL
The sum of winning probabilities for each party (odds adjusted to compensate for overround)
FF* 44.0
FG 37.5
SF 32.7
Ind 25.1
Lab 8.6
SD 6.0
II 5.9
Green 4.3
PBP-S 4.1
Aontú 2.2
I4C 1.2
Others 2.4
* including Ceann Comhairle
FF* 44.0
FG 37.5
SF 32.7
Ind 25.1
Lab 8.6
SD 6.0
II 5.9
Green 4.3
PBP-S 4.1
Aontú 2.2
I4C 1.2
Others 2.4
* including Ceann Comhairle
November 28, 2024 at 7:46 PM
The sum of winning probabilities for each party (odds adjusted to compensate for overround)
FF* 44.0
FG 37.5
SF 32.7
Ind 25.1
Lab 8.6
SD 6.0
II 5.9
Green 4.3
PBP-S 4.1
Aontú 2.2
I4C 1.2
Others 2.4
* including Ceann Comhairle
FF* 44.0
FG 37.5
SF 32.7
Ind 25.1
Lab 8.6
SD 6.0
II 5.9
Green 4.3
PBP-S 4.1
Aontú 2.2
I4C 1.2
Others 2.4
* including Ceann Comhairle
The cut is disclosed, technically, in the sense that it is derivable from prices you would have to add up yourself. Nobody adds them up. We did.
October 2, 2026 at 5:00 PM
The cut is disclosed, technically, in the sense that it is derivable from prices you would have to add up yourself. Nobody adds them up. We did.
If you’d have to bet £264 to come away with £100 in betting on a football match, is the overround 164% or 264%? (Gambia vs Kenya if anyone cares)
March 18, 2025 at 7:35 AM
If you’d have to bet £264 to come away with £100 in betting on a football match, is the overround 164% or 264%? (Gambia vs Kenya if anyone cares)
Any wallet grades the same way, free: www.overround.pro/check?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=weekly-grade-202610
Polymarket Wallet Checker · skill, not P&L · OVERROUND
Free Polymarket wallet checker. Paste an address to see if the graded record beats its entry prices, not raw P&L. Three checks a day.
www.overround.pro
October 1, 2026 at 12:44 PM
Any wallet grades the same way, free: www.overround.pro/check?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=weekly-grade-202610
Laying off a position at a second venue feels like risk management. You just paid two houses to hold both ends of the same opinion.
September 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Laying off a position at a second venue feels like risk management. You just paid two houses to hold both ends of the same opinion.
Backing every outcome on "Maine-Texas Senate Combo" costs 110¢ on the dollar at Kalshi. A fair book is 100. The extra 10 is the house's cut, and you pay it whichever side you take.
https://theoverround.com/m/KXMETXCOMBO-26NOV
https://theoverround.com/m/KXMETXCOMBO-26NOV
August 21, 2026 at 1:01 PM
Backing every outcome on "Maine-Texas Senate Combo" costs 110¢ on the dollar at Kalshi. A fair book is 100. The extra 10 is the house's cut, and you pay it whichever side you take.
https://theoverround.com/m/KXMETXCOMBO-26NOV
https://theoverround.com/m/KXMETXCOMBO-26NOV
Backing every outcome on "Maine-Texas Senate Combo" costs 109¢ on the dollar at Kalshi. A fair book is 100. The extra 9 is the house's cut, and you pay it whichever side you take.
https://theoverround.com/m/KXMETXCOMBO-26NOV
https://theoverround.com/m/KXMETXCOMBO-26NOV
August 15, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Backing every outcome on "Maine-Texas Senate Combo" costs 109¢ on the dollar at Kalshi. A fair book is 100. The extra 9 is the house's cut, and you pay it whichever side you take.
https://theoverround.com/m/KXMETXCOMBO-26NOV
https://theoverround.com/m/KXMETXCOMBO-26NOV
Backing every outcome on "2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?" costs 106.1¢ on the dollar at Kalshi. A fair book is 100. The extra 6.1 is the house's cut, and you pay it whichever side you take.
https://theoverround.com/m/KXPRESPERSON-28
https://theoverround.com/m/KXPRESPERSON-28
August 18, 2026 at 1:03 PM
Backing every outcome on "2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?" costs 106.1¢ on the dollar at Kalshi. A fair book is 100. The extra 6.1 is the house's cut, and you pay it whichever side you take.
https://theoverround.com/m/KXPRESPERSON-28
https://theoverround.com/m/KXPRESPERSON-28
Weekly Graded Wallet #4:
HomeRunHazard, shared for 34K+ markets traded.
Over 1,000 resolved events: Distinguishable from its own entry prices, and ahead of them. 95% interval +2.0 to +3.8 excess wins per 100 events.
Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
HomeRunHazard, shared for 34K+ markets traded.
Over 1,000 resolved events: Distinguishable from its own entry prices, and ahead of them. 95% interval +2.0 to +3.8 excess wins per 100 events.
Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
October 1, 2026 at 12:43 PM
Weekly Graded Wallet #4:
HomeRunHazard, shared for 34K+ markets traded.
Over 1,000 resolved events: Distinguishable from its own entry prices, and ahead of them. 95% interval +2.0 to +3.8 excess wins per 100 events.
Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
HomeRunHazard, shared for 34K+ markets traded.
Over 1,000 resolved events: Distinguishable from its own entry prices, and ahead of them. 95% interval +2.0 to +3.8 excess wins per 100 events.
Past accuracy does not predict future outcomes.
Backing every outcome on "Next Senate Democratic Leader?" costs 117.9¢ on the dollar at Kalshi. A fair book is 100. The extra 17.9 is the house's cut, and you pay it whichever side you take.
https://theoverround.com/m/KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01
https://theoverround.com/m/KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01
September 29, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Backing every outcome on "Next Senate Democratic Leader?" costs 117.9¢ on the dollar at Kalshi. A fair book is 100. The extra 17.9 is the house's cut, and you pay it whichever side you take.
https://theoverround.com/m/KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01
https://theoverround.com/m/KXSENATEDEMLEAD-28JAN01
Research is the fun part, which is why everyone does it and almost nobody spends the thirty seconds afterwards checking who is cheapest.
September 25, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Research is the fun part, which is why everyone does it and almost nobody spends the thirty seconds afterwards checking who is cheapest.
Same question, two houses. Trading "Next French presidential election winner?" costs 4.6 points at Kalshi and 3.9 at Polymarket. Nobody publishes this, so nobody shops on it.
https://theoverround.com/m/KXFRENCHPRES-27
https://theoverround.com/m/KXFRENCHPRES-27
September 25, 2026 at 1:00 PM
Same question, two houses. Trading "Next French presidential election winner?" costs 4.6 points at Kalshi and 3.9 at Polymarket. Nobody publishes this, so nobody shops on it.
https://theoverround.com/m/KXFRENCHPRES-27
https://theoverround.com/m/KXFRENCHPRES-27
Named after the number nobody prints. A fair book sums to 100. Ours is the only site that shows you what each house actually sums to.
September 23, 2026 at 5:00 PM
Named after the number nobody prints. A fair book sums to 100. Ours is the only site that shows you what each house actually sums to.