Cook’s non-sensical PVI alone has been a disaster rather than just saying “Trump won it by 3pts”
BREAKING: high chance of rain yesterday
September 25, 2026 at 3:35 PM
Cook’s non-sensical PVI alone has been a disaster rather than just saying “Trump won it by 3pts”
I fucking despise Cook PVI
December 3, 2025 at 3:26 PM
I fucking despise Cook PVI
Cook PVI for GA-10 (North Georgia) is R+10.
*REP. LOUDERMILK ANNOUNCES HIS RETIREMENT: PUNCHBOWL
*REP. LOUDERMILK ANNOUNCES HIS RETIREMENT: PUNCHBOWL
February 4, 2026 at 10:06 PM
Cook PVI for GA-10 (North Georgia) is R+10.
*REP. LOUDERMILK ANNOUNCES HIS RETIREMENT: PUNCHBOWL
*REP. LOUDERMILK ANNOUNCES HIS RETIREMENT: PUNCHBOWL
STOP USING COOK PVI TRUMP WON IT BY 24 POINTS
Cook PVI for GA-10 (North Georgia) is R+10.
*REP. LOUDERMILK ANNOUNCES HIS RETIREMENT: PUNCHBOWL
*REP. LOUDERMILK ANNOUNCES HIS RETIREMENT: PUNCHBOWL
February 4, 2026 at 10:30 PM
STOP USING COOK PVI TRUMP WON IT BY 24 POINTS
this is straightforwardly Johnson lying about what Cook PVI means; I’ll do him the favor of assuming he understands what it means
December 3, 2025 at 3:33 PM
this is straightforwardly Johnson lying about what Cook PVI means; I’ll do him the favor of assuming he understands what it means
If Dems somehow flip this seat -- default PVI of R+10 -- oh dear
December 2, 2025 at 2:40 PM
If Dems somehow flip this seat -- default PVI of R+10 -- oh dear
Pundits, 2018: OK-05 is PVI GOP +10 -- a Dem can't win!
(Kendra Horn, D, beat the GOP incumbent 51-49)
Pundits, 2022: Alaska is PVI GOP +8 -- a Dem can't win!
(Mary Peltola, D, beat GOP fmr Gov. Palin 55-45)
Pundits, 2025: #TN07 is PVI GOP +10 -- can @aftynbehn.bsky.social win?**
**Yes, she can!
(Kendra Horn, D, beat the GOP incumbent 51-49)
Pundits, 2022: Alaska is PVI GOP +8 -- a Dem can't win!
(Mary Peltola, D, beat GOP fmr Gov. Palin 55-45)
Pundits, 2025: #TN07 is PVI GOP +10 -- can @aftynbehn.bsky.social win?**
**Yes, she can!
WE ARE SO CLOSE, HENCE THE RELENTLESS ATTACKS
The margins are shrinking, which is why they're getting louder. Channel all of your upset and frustration into talking to voters. This race is winnable, and together, we will flip this seat on December 2nd!
{Link in bio to sign up!}
The margins are shrinking, which is why they're getting louder. Channel all of your upset and frustration into talking to voters. This race is winnable, and together, we will flip this seat on December 2nd!
{Link in bio to sign up!}
November 24, 2025 at 2:26 AM
Pundits, 2018: OK-05 is PVI GOP +10 -- a Dem can't win!
(Kendra Horn, D, beat the GOP incumbent 51-49)
Pundits, 2022: Alaska is PVI GOP +8 -- a Dem can't win!
(Mary Peltola, D, beat GOP fmr Gov. Palin 55-45)
Pundits, 2025: #TN07 is PVI GOP +10 -- can @aftynbehn.bsky.social win?**
**Yes, she can!
(Kendra Horn, D, beat the GOP incumbent 51-49)
Pundits, 2022: Alaska is PVI GOP +8 -- a Dem can't win!
(Mary Peltola, D, beat GOP fmr Gov. Palin 55-45)
Pundits, 2025: #TN07 is PVI GOP +10 -- can @aftynbehn.bsky.social win?**
**Yes, she can!
Sorry this is GA-11, PVI+12. Not sure what happened there, earnings season man.
February 4, 2026 at 10:18 PM
Sorry this is GA-11, PVI+12. Not sure what happened there, earnings season man.
Johnson also kinda misunderstanding what Cook PVI is lmao
December 3, 2025 at 3:37 PM
Johnson also kinda misunderstanding what Cook PVI is lmao
PVI R+7
BREAKING news!! NYT says the questions Trump has gotten at his 3 "press conferences" were "challenging."
They must be thinking of the Q, "Why did got save your life."
www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/u...
They must be thinking of the Q, "Why did got save your life."
www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/u...
September 17, 2024 at 6:41 PM
PVI R+7
Please please please stop using Cook PVI.
Georgia’s 11th congressional district which has a PVI of R+12 was won by Trump by 34pts
Georgia’s 11th congressional district which has a PVI of R+12 was won by Trump by 34pts
December 10, 2025 at 2:58 AM
Please please please stop using Cook PVI.
Georgia’s 11th congressional district which has a PVI of R+12 was won by Trump by 34pts
Georgia’s 11th congressional district which has a PVI of R+12 was won by Trump by 34pts
like, FL is R+3 PVI and an open seat, people are way waaaaay too down on it as a target relative to fundamentals
May 6, 2025 at 11:47 AM
like, FL is R+3 PVI and an open seat, people are way waaaaay too down on it as a target relative to fundamentals
(Cook PVI is partisan performance compared to national average, not two-way margin. You ~can double it to get the expected two way margin.)
December 3, 2025 at 3:35 PM
(Cook PVI is partisan performance compared to national average, not two-way margin. You ~can double it to get the expected two way margin.)
It would be pretty incredible if Rs sh*t the bed so bad that ppl campaigning under their fursonas start getting elected 😆
(MI-7 is an R+0 PVI swing district btw)
(MI-7 is an R+0 PVI swing district btw)
""I'd heard of furries, but to be honest, I didn't think they were real. Then one filed to run against me for Congress," stated the email. "Samuel Smeltzer, whose furry name is Elyon Badger, announced he's running against me, in costume, on a far left progressive platform.""
'The furries are coming for me!' GOP lawmaker turns heads with odd fundraising pitch
Rep. Tom Barrett (R-MI) sent out a bizarre fundraising call to action for his supporters on Friday, headlined, "the furries are coming for me.""I'd heard of furries, but to be honest, I didn't think t...
www.rawstory.com
November 29, 2025 at 6:45 PM
It would be pretty incredible if Rs sh*t the bed so bad that ppl campaigning under their fursonas start getting elected 😆
(MI-7 is an R+0 PVI swing district btw)
(MI-7 is an R+0 PVI swing district btw)
the new lines are R+8 PVI
March 4, 2026 at 4:17 AM
the new lines are R+8 PVI
I don't know what Rs do if every Cook PVI R+15 seat is in play. Or even every R+8.
February 1, 2026 at 5:30 AM
I don't know what Rs do if every Cook PVI R+15 seat is in play. Or even every R+8.
It's odd to look at a polling result that says "Voters obviously don't like democrats" while at the same time Democrats are overperforming baseline PVI by 10-esh points in most special elections.
July 26, 2025 at 5:05 PM
It's odd to look at a polling result that says "Voters obviously don't like democrats" while at the same time Democrats are overperforming baseline PVI by 10-esh points in most special elections.
God PVI is so fucking stupid
PVI = Two-party vote-share relative to the nation
If 2024 was an R+1 year (Rs won 51% of the two-party vote), then R+13, means a state voted 13 points to the right of the nation - in other words, Rs received 64% of the vote
If 2024 was an R+1 year (Rs won 51% of the two-party vote), then R+13, means a state voted 13 points to the right of the nation - in other words, Rs received 64% of the vote
December 10, 2025 at 2:27 AM
God PVI is so fucking stupid
PVI is about partisan lean vs. neutral baseline, it's not about the result. Johnson is an idiot.
~fin~
~fin~
December 3, 2025 at 3:40 PM
PVI is about partisan lean vs. neutral baseline, it's not about the result. Johnson is an idiot.
~fin~
~fin~
anyway we'd see every republican over 65 in a cook PVI of less than R+15 bailing out of congress
November 28, 2025 at 3:44 AM
anyway we'd see every republican over 65 in a cook PVI of less than R+15 bailing out of congress
Just casually scrolling through the House PVI as one does and noting the 80+ seats that could flip... Multiple states could go full dummy-mander.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Pa...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Pa...
November 5, 2025 at 4:31 AM
Just casually scrolling through the House PVI as one does and noting the 80+ seats that could flip... Multiple states could go full dummy-mander.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Pa...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Pa...
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🕯 not 🕯
conflating
🕯 margin of victory 🕯
and
🕯 Cook PVI 🕯
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🕯 not 🕯
conflating
🕯 margin of victory 🕯
and
🕯 Cook PVI 🕯
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December 3, 2025 at 2:52 AM
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🕯 🕯
🕯 not 🕯
conflating
🕯 margin of victory 🕯
and
🕯 Cook PVI 🕯
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🕯 🕯
🕯 not 🕯
conflating
🕯 margin of victory 🕯
and
🕯 Cook PVI 🕯
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D+23 indies nationally
do we believe that they're AES+1 in one of the states that most follows the national PVI, genuinely?
do we believe that they're AES+1 in one of the states that most follows the national PVI, genuinely?
September 24, 2026 at 12:01 PM
D+23 indies nationally
do we believe that they're AES+1 in one of the states that most follows the national PVI, genuinely?
do we believe that they're AES+1 in one of the states that most follows the national PVI, genuinely?
ok almost done with Texas-posting. this is Cook PVI for Texas over the last several decades; it's a tall lift but not an impossible one, and the degree to which 2024 snapped it back red is perhaps overstated.
I think it's lean R right now but I would believe tossup before I'd believe likely R.
I think it's lean R right now but I would believe tossup before I'd believe likely R.
May 27, 2026 at 3:24 PM
ok almost done with Texas-posting. this is Cook PVI for Texas over the last several decades; it's a tall lift but not an impossible one, and the degree to which 2024 snapped it back red is perhaps overstated.
I think it's lean R right now but I would believe tossup before I'd believe likely R.
I think it's lean R right now but I would believe tossup before I'd believe likely R.
