It is hilarious how a fake Talarico story promoted by the prediction markets revealed how much garbage information prediction markets provide
October 12, 2026 at 11:22 AM
It is hilarious how a fake Talarico story promoted by the prediction markets revealed how much garbage information prediction markets provide
I’m with you, let’s hit the prediction markets.
October 13, 2026 at 12:43 AM
I’m with you, let’s hit the prediction markets.
Prediction: the ads will continue to run
October 11, 2026 at 11:32 PM
Prediction: the ads will continue to run
10,000% tax on prediction market income should do it
October 12, 2026 at 12:14 PM
10,000% tax on prediction market income should do it
I often dismiss these "prediction market" sites as casinos that draw in compulsive gamblers to generate hot takes, but Polymarket actually seems worse than that.
One of the largest right-wing-extremist conspiracy accounts on X is the prediction market PolyMarket, and it really makes you wonder how this may affect the accuracy & calibration of their prices.
October 12, 2026 at 12:49 AM
I often dismiss these "prediction market" sites as casinos that draw in compulsive gamblers to generate hot takes, but Polymarket actually seems worse than that.
The only accurate prediction he has ever made
October 11, 2026 at 10:52 PM
The only accurate prediction he has ever made
if you have a salary in the tens of millions of dollars and you do commercials for sportsbooks or prediction markets you are a stupid asshole
October 12, 2026 at 12:52 AM
if you have a salary in the tens of millions of dollars and you do commercials for sportsbooks or prediction markets you are a stupid asshole
This throw and catch is so clean it looks scripted, but it is pure brain math, milliseconds of trajectory prediction turned into perfect hand placement.
October 9, 2026 at 10:41 AM
This throw and catch is so clean it looks scripted, but it is pure brain math, milliseconds of trajectory prediction turned into perfect hand placement.
The NFL argues to the U.S. Supreme Court that prediction markets should be regulated by the states as gambling.
NFL argues to Supreme Court that prediction markets are gambling
The fight over whether prediction markets involving sports are gambling has landed, as it inevitably would, in the U.S.
www.nbcsports.com
October 8, 2026 at 11:08 PM
The NFL argues to the U.S. Supreme Court that prediction markets should be regulated by the states as gambling.
calling it now that there will be ads on it for a prediction market or sports gambling website
October 8, 2026 at 11:06 PM
calling it now that there will be ads on it for a prediction market or sports gambling website
One of the largest right-wing-extremist conspiracy accounts on X is the prediction market PolyMarket, and it really makes you wonder how this may affect the accuracy & calibration of their prices.
October 12, 2026 at 12:47 AM
One of the largest right-wing-extremist conspiracy accounts on X is the prediction market PolyMarket, and it really makes you wonder how this may affect the accuracy & calibration of their prices.
Marc Elias has a prediction for the midterms:
“If Democrats win, it is 100% certain that Donald Trump will say they were not honest.”
Voting rules are being rewritten right now. Stay a step ahead: https://demdock.com/4yhBJbZ
“If Democrats win, it is 100% certain that Donald Trump will say they were not honest.”
Voting rules are being rewritten right now. Stay a step ahead: https://demdock.com/4yhBJbZ
October 11, 2026 at 10:01 PM
Marc Elias has a prediction for the midterms:
“If Democrats win, it is 100% certain that Donald Trump will say they were not honest.”
Voting rules are being rewritten right now. Stay a step ahead: https://demdock.com/4yhBJbZ
“If Democrats win, it is 100% certain that Donald Trump will say they were not honest.”
Voting rules are being rewritten right now. Stay a step ahead: https://demdock.com/4yhBJbZ
"let's check in with the prediction markets"
LET'S FUCKIN NOT ACTUALLY
LET'S FUCKIN NOT ACTUALLY
October 12, 2026 at 12:52 AM
"let's check in with the prediction markets"
LET'S FUCKIN NOT ACTUALLY
LET'S FUCKIN NOT ACTUALLY
Midnight Staley's Prediction: Pain
Alt: Clubber Lang's Prediction is Pain
static.klipy.com
October 9, 2026 at 12:19 AM
Pentagon pay per view.
Will the prediction markets get in on it too?
You bet.
Will the prediction markets get in on it too?
You bet.
October 8, 2026 at 9:34 PM
Pentagon pay per view.
Will the prediction markets get in on it too?
You bet.
Will the prediction markets get in on it too?
You bet.
Is there a prediction market for Guilfoyle's last day in the Trump administration?
October 11, 2026 at 11:28 AM
Is there a prediction market for Guilfoyle's last day in the Trump administration?
They need to ban prediction markets oh my god
October 12, 2026 at 5:43 PM
They need to ban prediction markets oh my god
Before Trump tapped Michael Selig to lead the CFTC, he was a corporate lawyer for crypto firms and prediction markets.
And he sold between $65,000 and $150,000 in Bitcoin before he became a commissioner.
So yes, the CFTC has been friendly to industry.
And he sold between $65,000 and $150,000 in Bitcoin before he became a commissioner.
So yes, the CFTC has been friendly to industry.
As crypto and prediction markets expand, their regulator shrinks
Even as the agency is tasked with drawing up new rules for crypto and prediction markets, its staffing and enforcement actions have dropped precipitously during the second Trump administration.
www.npr.org
October 12, 2026 at 2:44 PM
Before Trump tapped Michael Selig to lead the CFTC, he was a corporate lawyer for crypto firms and prediction markets.
And he sold between $65,000 and $150,000 in Bitcoin before he became a commissioner.
So yes, the CFTC has been friendly to industry.
And he sold between $65,000 and $150,000 in Bitcoin before he became a commissioner.
So yes, the CFTC has been friendly to industry.
They aren’t prediction markets. They are gambling operations. A so called trade is an illegal bet.
October 12, 2026 at 11:57 AM
They aren’t prediction markets. They are gambling operations. A so called trade is an illegal bet.
generally I think people understand "next token prediction" as something like word or character prediction, instead of the truth of it, which is that a token can be anything we can represent as a vector in a sequence, which, uh
"everything is a file" is not just a statement about operating systems.
"everything is a file" is not just a statement about operating systems.
"word" is also doing a lot of heavy lifting in the popular imagination. "token" can be somewhat more clarifying, but I think "prediction" is generally underweighted.
October 11, 2026 at 6:05 PM
generally I think people understand "next token prediction" as something like word or character prediction, instead of the truth of it, which is that a token can be anything we can represent as a vector in a sequence, which, uh
"everything is a file" is not just a statement about operating systems.
"everything is a file" is not just a statement about operating systems.
Let's make Bannons prediction true, then ;)
October 11, 2026 at 3:00 PM
Let's make Bannons prediction true, then ;)
So far, this prediction is holding.
October 11, 2026 at 2:15 AM
So far, this prediction is holding.
Prediction markets are just gambling sites.
October 12, 2026 at 3:12 AM
Prediction markets are just gambling sites.
LeBron James? The prediction market guy?
LeBron James’ helicopter arrives to pick him up from Sixers practice:
October 7, 2026 at 5:47 PM
LeBron James? The prediction market guy?
Way to go!
Robin Hood: Fortune Teller's Prediction
Alt: Robin Hood: Fortune Teller's Prediction
static.klipy.com
October 12, 2026 at 1:54 AM
Way to go!