Probabilistic Uncertainty xkcd.com/3007
November 5, 2024 at 3:10 AM
Probabilistic Uncertainty xkcd.com/3007
Our noble heuristics
Their barbaric probabilistic problem solving
Their barbaric probabilistic problem solving
September 20, 2026 at 5:01 PM
Our noble heuristics
Their barbaric probabilistic problem solving
Their barbaric probabilistic problem solving
One of the strongest parts of the discourse is the rejection of "probabilistic systems" in medicine. The reason modern medicine works is modern probability theory and practice. Modern medicine is a triumph of applied probability theory. Every treatment is a probabilistic mechanism.
FYI. There are MANY MANY examples of poorly trained "AI" - probabilistic systems - that have been oversold or that have failed to perform as needed. Using immature technology in BRAIN SURGERY (of all things) is shocking IMHO.
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
www.reuters.com/investigatio...
As AI enters the operating room, reports arise of botched surgeries and misidentified body parts
Medical device makers have been rushing to add AI to their products. While proponents say the new technology will revolutionize medicine, regulators are receiving a rising number of claims of patient ...
www.reuters.com
August 27, 2026 at 4:08 PM
One of the strongest parts of the discourse is the rejection of "probabilistic systems" in medicine. The reason modern medicine works is modern probability theory and practice. Modern medicine is a triumph of applied probability theory. Every treatment is a probabilistic mechanism.
What the fuck is a "study via probabilistic language model" dawg 😭
July 31, 2026 at 8:11 PM
What the fuck is a "study via probabilistic language model" dawg 😭
University administrators two years ago: we can’t allow social justice movements to change the university as we know it
University administrators today: in order to accommodate the new probabilistic bullshit generator no one likes we must change everything about the university
University administrators today: in order to accommodate the new probabilistic bullshit generator no one likes we must change everything about the university
May 27, 2026 at 8:07 AM
University administrators two years ago: we can’t allow social justice movements to change the university as we know it
University administrators today: in order to accommodate the new probabilistic bullshit generator no one likes we must change everything about the university
University administrators today: in order to accommodate the new probabilistic bullshit generator no one likes we must change everything about the university
What he doesn't realize is if the yuri writers get replaced, their backup plan is to finish their papers on probabilistic approaches to nonlinear dynamics. So, it should all even out.
September 12, 2026 at 10:04 AM
What he doesn't realize is if the yuri writers get replaced, their backup plan is to finish their papers on probabilistic approaches to nonlinear dynamics. So, it should all even out.
Iirc there was a lot of emphasis on Bayesian probabilistic models and RL aimed at direct goals. Definitely underrated Deep Learning as a paradigm.
September 25, 2026 at 5:24 AM
Iirc there was a lot of emphasis on Bayesian probabilistic models and RL aimed at direct goals. Definitely underrated Deep Learning as a paradigm.
TFW you're worshipping a probabilistic parrot
Morrison invoking AI alike to "God" indicates a severe misunderstanding of how AI appropriates the work of thousands, including their own, and someone needs to rectify their understanding ASAP.
But also it's a severe disservice to their colleagues anyway to use it and justify it like this.
But also it's a severe disservice to their colleagues anyway to use it and justify it like this.
October 16, 2025 at 11:46 PM
TFW you're worshipping a probabilistic parrot
A simple point: Trump’s tariff threats (against Greenland's allies!) rest on a power before SCOTUS and likely to be ruled unconstitutional. That’s not leverage; it’s probabilistic impotence. (Stormy Daniels agrees.)
January 17, 2026 at 7:05 PM
A simple point: Trump’s tariff threats (against Greenland's allies!) rest on a power before SCOTUS and likely to be ruled unconstitutional. That’s not leverage; it’s probabilistic impotence. (Stormy Daniels agrees.)
can we scale small, open LMs to o1 level? Using classical probabilistic inference methods, YES!
Particle filtering approach to Improved inference w/o any training!
Check out probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io
By Aisha Puri et al📈🤖
Joint MIT-CSAIL & RedHat
Particle filtering approach to Improved inference w/o any training!
Check out probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io
By Aisha Puri et al📈🤖
Joint MIT-CSAIL & RedHat
Probabilistic Inference Scaling
Probabilistic Inference Scaling
probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io
February 7, 2025 at 8:05 PM
can we scale small, open LMs to o1 level? Using classical probabilistic inference methods, YES!
Particle filtering approach to Improved inference w/o any training!
Check out probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io
By Aisha Puri et al📈🤖
Joint MIT-CSAIL & RedHat
Particle filtering approach to Improved inference w/o any training!
Check out probabilistic-inference-scaling.github.io
By Aisha Puri et al📈🤖
Joint MIT-CSAIL & RedHat
This is bonkers. Electronic radios are not probabilistic. Electronic stoves are not probabilistic. Electronic traction control is not probabilistic. Electronic calculators are not probabilustic! Electronics are extremely well-defined, highly reliable, and stable.
I kind of think expecting anything electronic to not be at least in part probabilistic is profoundly foolish, hubristic and shows a fundamental misconception of the universe. Like, not to get all woo-woo, but you're basically harnessing a quantum genie.
If a screwdriver can only remove 60% of screws its head is designed to fit, that screwdriver is unreliable & unfit for purpose.
If a faucet only produces water 60% of the time, it is unreliable & unfit for purpose.
If a vacuum only powers on 60% of the time, it is unreliable & unfit for purpose.
If a faucet only produces water 60% of the time, it is unreliable & unfit for purpose.
If a vacuum only powers on 60% of the time, it is unreliable & unfit for purpose.
May 7, 2026 at 7:20 PM
This is bonkers. Electronic radios are not probabilistic. Electronic stoves are not probabilistic. Electronic traction control is not probabilistic. Electronic calculators are not probabilustic! Electronics are extremely well-defined, highly reliable, and stable.
Some of this is plain wrong. Not all AI is probabilistic, for example.
September 24, 2026 at 12:47 PM
Some of this is plain wrong. Not all AI is probabilistic, for example.
This is 🤯
All publicly available. Looks like an amazing new histology-based human probabilistic atlas and parcellation tool.
#neuroskyence #mri #brainmapping
A probabilistic histological atlas of the human brain for MRI segmentation | Nature share.google/5AD0iW7pxgb4...
All publicly available. Looks like an amazing new histology-based human probabilistic atlas and parcellation tool.
#neuroskyence #mri #brainmapping
A probabilistic histological atlas of the human brain for MRI segmentation | Nature share.google/5AD0iW7pxgb4...
A probabilistic histological atlas of the human brain for MRI segmentation - Nature
NextBrain is an open source, probabilistic atlas of the entire human brain, assembled using artificial-intelligence-enabled registration and segmentation methods to reconstruct the multimodal serial h...
share.google
November 6, 2025 at 5:35 AM
This is 🤯
All publicly available. Looks like an amazing new histology-based human probabilistic atlas and parcellation tool.
#neuroskyence #mri #brainmapping
A probabilistic histological atlas of the human brain for MRI segmentation | Nature share.google/5AD0iW7pxgb4...
All publicly available. Looks like an amazing new histology-based human probabilistic atlas and parcellation tool.
#neuroskyence #mri #brainmapping
A probabilistic histological atlas of the human brain for MRI segmentation | Nature share.google/5AD0iW7pxgb4...
Trying to train themselves to think like Bayesian probabilistic models didn't look great at the time and hasn't really aged well either.
September 25, 2026 at 2:16 PM
Trying to train themselves to think like Bayesian probabilistic models didn't look great at the time and hasn't really aged well either.
probabilistic-ass Speak n' Spell
July 11, 2025 at 10:59 PM
probabilistic-ass Speak n' Spell
when you come across someone saying like “the probabilistic space of Alignment necessitates uncontested Q-prioritization by high-MCX individuals with uniquely-positioned time/life values toward the Bayesian light-space” it’s important to remember that they’re just making up some fake bullshit
September 26, 2026 at 9:03 PM
when you come across someone saying like “the probabilistic space of Alignment necessitates uncontested Q-prioritization by high-MCX individuals with uniquely-positioned time/life values toward the Bayesian light-space” it’s important to remember that they’re just making up some fake bullshit
today's dystopian scifi prompt is: silent epidemic of unlicensed, out-of-scope, probabilistic mental health care
one of the major uses of LLMs is as an unlicensed, cheap therapist. the people who sell them largely don't think about this fact at all.
Roon's trolley problem
November 11, 2025 at 1:04 AM
today's dystopian scifi prompt is: silent epidemic of unlicensed, out-of-scope, probabilistic mental health care
The next generation of probabilistic machine learning for weather called GenCast is published in @natureportfolio.bsky.social today 🥳. Amazing to see the collective progress in ML for weather as a field over the last 5 years. 🏖️ www.nature.com/articles/s41...
Probabilistic weather forecasting with machine learning - Nature
GenCast, a probabilistic weather model using artificial intelligence for weather forecasting, has greater skill and speed than the top operational medium-range weather forecast in the world and provid...
www.nature.com
December 4, 2024 at 7:30 PM
The next generation of probabilistic machine learning for weather called GenCast is published in @natureportfolio.bsky.social today 🥳. Amazing to see the collective progress in ML for weather as a field over the last 5 years. 🏖️ www.nature.com/articles/s41...
It’s an algorithm that uses complex matrix math to generate probabilistic output one token at a time for a given an input prompt.
The idea that it feels pain is comical, and running a story like this is as embarrassing as it is irresponsible.
The idea that it feels pain is comical, and running a story like this is as embarrassing as it is irresponsible.
Can the new cutting-edge AI models feel pain? They at least behave as if they do, according to a recent study.
The work, which has not been peer reviewed, has divided #AI researchers. https://scim.ag/4hHU6BA
The work, which has not been peer reviewed, has divided #AI researchers. https://scim.ag/4hHU6BA
September 26, 2026 at 10:11 PM
It’s an algorithm that uses complex matrix math to generate probabilistic output one token at a time for a given an input prompt.
The idea that it feels pain is comical, and running a story like this is as embarrassing as it is irresponsible.
The idea that it feels pain is comical, and running a story like this is as embarrassing as it is irresponsible.
Stop Guessing, Start Planning.
Ever look at a single snow forecast and think, "But what are the actual odds?"
The Probabilistic Precipitation Portal is a resource to help you get ahead of the storm by moving beyond a single number to give you the full picture. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/
👇
Ever look at a single snow forecast and think, "But what are the actual odds?"
The Probabilistic Precipitation Portal is a resource to help you get ahead of the storm by moving beyond a single number to give you the full picture. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/
👇
NWS Probabilistic Precipitation Portal
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov
January 29, 2026 at 6:42 PM
Stop Guessing, Start Planning.
Ever look at a single snow forecast and think, "But what are the actual odds?"
The Probabilistic Precipitation Portal is a resource to help you get ahead of the storm by moving beyond a single number to give you the full picture. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/
👇
Ever look at a single snow forecast and think, "But what are the actual odds?"
The Probabilistic Precipitation Portal is a resource to help you get ahead of the storm by moving beyond a single number to give you the full picture. www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/Prob_Precip/
👇
"it's just probabilistic it's not decisions"
DO SHADLEN AND NEWSOME MEAN NOTHING TO YOU
DO SHADLEN AND NEWSOME MEAN NOTHING TO YOU
September 24, 2026 at 10:26 PM
"it's just probabilistic it's not decisions"
DO SHADLEN AND NEWSOME MEAN NOTHING TO YOU
DO SHADLEN AND NEWSOME MEAN NOTHING TO YOU
STOP. USING. PROBABILISTIC. WORD. SALAD. MACHINES.
November 7, 2025 at 10:40 AM
STOP. USING. PROBABILISTIC. WORD. SALAD. MACHINES.
I would be more impressed if a language model trained entirely on human-authored text automatically understood that it was a machine that did not feel pain or anything else
But the probabilistic human response to pain is "ouch" so it says "ouch."
But the probabilistic human response to pain is "ouch" so it says "ouch."
Can the new cutting-edge AI models feel pain? They at least behave as if they do, according to a recent study.
The work, which has not been peer reviewed, has divided #AI researchers. https://scim.ag/4hHU6BA
The work, which has not been peer reviewed, has divided #AI researchers. https://scim.ag/4hHU6BA
September 26, 2026 at 2:47 PM
I would be more impressed if a language model trained entirely on human-authored text automatically understood that it was a machine that did not feel pain or anything else
But the probabilistic human response to pain is "ouch" so it says "ouch."
But the probabilistic human response to pain is "ouch" so it says "ouch."
That doesn't mean that every probabilistic system is good, but rejecting clinical AI on the basis that it's a probabilistic system is facially nonsense.
August 27, 2026 at 11:24 PM
That doesn't mean that every probabilistic system is good, but rejecting clinical AI on the basis that it's a probabilistic system is facially nonsense.
Probabilistic models of language do not have feelings.
March 17, 2025 at 11:45 PM
Probabilistic models of language do not have feelings.