Maybe folks are better at probabilities on Bluesky!
March 31, 2025 at 12:25 AM
Maybe folks are better at probabilities on Bluesky!
UBS: “US recession probabilities moving back up.”
June 3, 2025 at 11:35 AM
UBS: “US recession probabilities moving back up.”
“probabilities on polymarket”
polymarket and online gamblification of every aspect of our lives is the worst new development of the world in 2025
polymarket and online gamblification of every aspect of our lives is the worst new development of the world in 2025
January 12, 2026 at 3:23 AM
“probabilities on polymarket”
polymarket and online gamblification of every aspect of our lives is the worst new development of the world in 2025
polymarket and online gamblification of every aspect of our lives is the worst new development of the world in 2025
Need to tweak the probabilities
March 1, 2026 at 5:43 PM
Need to tweak the probabilities
I'm trying to look for things with lower probabilities than this, but I have yet to find any
Killing PlayStation discs could make PS Store games cheaper, according to a former Square Enix exec
www.eurogamer.net/ps-store-pri...
www.eurogamer.net/ps-store-pri...
August 15, 2026 at 5:33 PM
I'm trying to look for things with lower probabilities than this, but I have yet to find any
Hello from the rental car line in San Antonio, which is full of eclipse chasers talking about cloud cover probabilities 🌥️
April 6, 2024 at 1:43 AM
Hello from the rental car line in San Antonio, which is full of eclipse chasers talking about cloud cover probabilities 🌥️
Decision Desk HQ Arizona Governor Forecast (9/2):
Probabilities:
🟦 Hobbs: 69%
🟥 Biggs: 31%
Probabilities:
🟦 Hobbs: 69%
🟥 Biggs: 31%
September 2, 2026 at 6:46 PM
Decision Desk HQ Arizona Governor Forecast (9/2):
Probabilities:
🟦 Hobbs: 69%
🟥 Biggs: 31%
Probabilities:
🟦 Hobbs: 69%
🟥 Biggs: 31%
assigning probabilities to never-before-experienced phenomena is one of my favorite Rationalist bits
14.6% probability of Godzilla
14.6% probability of Godzilla
September 25, 2026 at 2:49 PM
assigning probabilities to never-before-experienced phenomena is one of my favorite Rationalist bits
14.6% probability of Godzilla
14.6% probability of Godzilla
I sincerely love yall, in theory. But I want us to embrace probabilities. Just a little bit.
My highschool chemistry teacher had a GED (at 15), she also had a PhD. Not sure indexing on the GED is that great.
November 27, 2025 at 9:19 PM
I sincerely love yall, in theory. But I want us to embrace probabilities. Just a little bit.
PROBABILITIES UPDATING
June 14, 2026 at 5:24 PM
PROBABILITIES UPDATING
Decision Desk HQ IA-03 Forecast (9/3):
Probabilities:
🟦 Garriott: 64%
🟥 Nunn: 36%
Probabilities:
🟦 Garriott: 64%
🟥 Nunn: 36%
September 3, 2026 at 6:15 PM
Decision Desk HQ IA-03 Forecast (9/3):
Probabilities:
🟦 Garriott: 64%
🟥 Nunn: 36%
Probabilities:
🟦 Garriott: 64%
🟥 Nunn: 36%
May 13, 2025 at 9:50 AM
Many things have risen to nonzero probabilities
June 5, 2025 at 8:37 PM
Many things have risen to nonzero probabilities
English doesn't have grammar rules. At best it has probabilities.
May 4, 2025 at 12:05 AM
English doesn't have grammar rules. At best it has probabilities.
September 3, 2026 at 8:00 PM
nowcast probabilities are not useful
April 16, 2025 at 3:14 PM
nowcast probabilities are not useful
Probabilities of at least MAJOR winter weather impacts:
January 20, 2026 at 6:57 PM
Probabilities of at least MAJOR winter weather impacts:
Decision Desk HQ Ohio Senate Forecast (9/1):
Probabilities:
🟥 Husted: 50%
🟦 Brown: 50%
Probabilities:
🟥 Husted: 50%
🟦 Brown: 50%
September 1, 2026 at 7:15 PM
Decision Desk HQ Ohio Senate Forecast (9/1):
Probabilities:
🟥 Husted: 50%
🟦 Brown: 50%
Probabilities:
🟥 Husted: 50%
🟦 Brown: 50%
Me with my Bluesky mutuals
September 24, 2026 at 5:31 PM
Me with my Bluesky mutuals
Measuring all probabilities in comparison to marital infidelity would be a great bit
June 4, 2025 at 9:46 PM
Measuring all probabilities in comparison to marital infidelity would be a great bit
me @ game designers who know "math" and "probabilities" and "what dice do"
June 24, 2024 at 3:42 AM
me @ game designers who know "math" and "probabilities" and "what dice do"
Visualizing predicted probabilities from ordered logistic models—
• Tired: dodged and faceted point ranges
• Wired: fuzzy stacked bars showing cumulative probabilities
#rstats code here, featuring {marginaleffects}, {brms}, and {tidybayes}: gist.github.com/andrewheiss/...
• Tired: dodged and faceted point ranges
• Wired: fuzzy stacked bars showing cumulative probabilities
#rstats code here, featuring {marginaleffects}, {brms}, and {tidybayes}: gist.github.com/andrewheiss/...
June 19, 2024 at 1:36 AM
Visualizing predicted probabilities from ordered logistic models—
• Tired: dodged and faceted point ranges
• Wired: fuzzy stacked bars showing cumulative probabilities
#rstats code here, featuring {marginaleffects}, {brms}, and {tidybayes}: gist.github.com/andrewheiss/...
• Tired: dodged and faceted point ranges
• Wired: fuzzy stacked bars showing cumulative probabilities
#rstats code here, featuring {marginaleffects}, {brms}, and {tidybayes}: gist.github.com/andrewheiss/...
The fuck you say to me?
March 30, 2026 at 2:35 AM
The fuck you say to me?
I really desperately want to be famous enough to do paid speaking engagements where i make ip probabilities
PAUL TUDOR-JONES: THERE IS A 10% CHANCE AI WILL LEAD TO A WEAPON THAT TAKES OUT HALF OF HUMANITY
May 6, 2025 at 12:52 PM
I really desperately want to be famous enough to do paid speaking engagements where i make ip probabilities