NEW: Quantus Insights Virginia Redistricting Amendment Poll | April 16, 2026 📊 Initial Ballot Test 🟢 Yes, approve: 51.2% 🔴 No, reject: 46.9% ⚪️ Not sure: 1.9% –––––––––––––––––– 📊 Turnout Intent 🟢 Definitely will vote: 98.1% ⚪️ Probably will vote: 1.6% ⚪️ 50/50: 0.3% ––This is a highly engaged special election electorate with very little softness in participation. –––––––––––––––––– 📊 Fair or Unfair? 🔴 Unfair: 46.2% 🟢 Fair: 44.7% ⚪️ No opinion: 9.1% ––Voters are closely divided on the fairness of the amendment’s likely partisan outcome. –––––––––––––––––– 📊 Ballot Test After Partisan Framing 🟢 Yes, approve: 49.6% 🔴 No, reject: 47.3% ⚪️ Not sure: 3.1% ––Support softens once voters are told the amendment would temporarily create 10 Democratic-leaning districts and 1 Republican-leaning district. –––––––––––––––––– 📊 Which Argument Comes Closest? 🟢 Virginia must respond to the GOP redistricting push: 48.4% 🔴 Partisan redistricting is wrong: 43.9% 🔴 It favors Democrats too much: 4.3% 🟢 The map will favor Democrats: 1.2% ⚪️ No opinion: 1.6% ⚪️ Not sure: 0.6% ––The pro-amendment case has a slight edge, but the opposition argument remains competitive. –––––––––––––––––– 📊 How Voters Plan to Cast Their Ballot 🟢 Early in person: 35.7% ⚪️ Election Day in person: 34.8% ⚪️ Have already voted: 22.0% ⚪️ Mail ballot: 4.9% ⚪️ Not sure: 2.6% –––––––––––––––––– Our polling shows the Virginia redistricting amendment narrowly ahead, but not secure. The measure begins with a small lead on the ballot, yet becomes more vulnerable when voters weigh the partisan balance and fairness of the outcome. This is shaping up as a close, high-interest vote, with late perceptions of legitimacy likely to decide the result. Report and crosstabs at Quantus Insights [dot] org.

IT’S ALMOST LIKE PUBLIC POLLS TEND TO BE DISINFORMATION. Really interesting work from Patrick Ruffini. Across 3,312 Senate polls over four cycles, he finds a D+3.7 average error, with 73% overstating Democrats. Even more interesting is that the error peaks around D+5.9 in late July before narrowing toward Election Day. That adds an… https://t.co/c1nC4baSiU pic.twitter.com/CIIWLgNFj3 […]

WEREN’T TARIFFS SUPPOSED TO DO THE EXACT OPPOSITE? Global capital is betting on America, and the numbers are impossible to ignore. Foreign private investors are buying U.S. assets at a ~$1.65T annual pace, up nearly 40% from last year. Equity inflows are surging, Treasuries are in demand, and corporate bonds are seeing strong… pic.twitter.com/IjC4WVbCWF — […]