Really enjoyed this observation from
@dmitri.silverado.org in his conversation with Larry Rubin and myself for #ShiftingGround … and its relevance for anticipating the next conflict … #Orbisjournal
@dmitri.silverado.org in his conversation with Larry Rubin and myself for #ShiftingGround … and its relevance for anticipating the next conflict … #Orbisjournal
"Cyber is a canary in a coal mine, it gives you a sense of adversary intentions. It's the first tool they'll pull out of their toolkit because it's covert, deniable, and perceived to have very little cost to it." (7:05) Listen to the latest episode of #ShiftingGround. #OrbisJournal
Episode 5 | Cyber is War
Explore the intersection of cybersecurity and international affairs in our latest episode featuring Dmitri Alperovitch discussing cyber threats.
buff.ly
May 21, 2026 at 11:09 PM
Really enjoyed this observation from
@dmitri.silverado.org in his conversation with Larry Rubin and myself for #ShiftingGround … and its relevance for anticipating the next conflict … #Orbisjournal
@dmitri.silverado.org in his conversation with Larry Rubin and myself for #ShiftingGround … and its relevance for anticipating the next conflict … #Orbisjournal
"They started infiltrating networks that had nothing to steal: water utilities, pipelines, electric utilities. The US intelligence community believes they're preparing to cause immense disruption to our critical infrastructure (13:55). Listen to the full episode on #ShiftingGround.
Episode 5 | Cyber is War
Explore the intersection of cybersecurity and international affairs in our latest episode featuring Dmitri Alperovitch discussing cyber threats.
buff.ly
May 22, 2026 at 6:34 PM
"They started infiltrating networks that had nothing to steal: water utilities, pipelines, electric utilities. The US intelligence community believes they're preparing to cause immense disruption to our critical infrastructure (13:55). Listen to the full episode on #ShiftingGround.
On the latest episode of #ShiftingGround, Dmitri Alperovitch tells us that "cyber doesn't actually create deterrence—cyber is not a weapons system, it's an enabling capability" (34:55). #OrbisJournal
Episode 5 | Cyber is War
Explore the intersection of cybersecurity and international affairs in our latest episode featuring Dmitri Alperovitch discussing cyber threats.
buff.ly
May 24, 2026 at 9:06 PM
On the latest episode of #ShiftingGround, Dmitri Alperovitch tells us that "cyber doesn't actually create deterrence—cyber is not a weapons system, it's an enabling capability" (34:55). #OrbisJournal
"Right after I conducted a big investigation into Chinese breaches, I coined this phrase. There are two types of companies: those that know that they've been hacked and those that don't yet know" (8:54). Listen to the full conversation with Dmitri Alperovitch on #ShiftingGround.
Episode 5 | Cyber is War
Explore the intersection of cybersecurity and international affairs in our latest episode featuring Dmitri Alperovitch discussing cyber threats.
buff.ly
May 26, 2026 at 10:12 PM
"Right after I conducted a big investigation into Chinese breaches, I coined this phrase. There are two types of companies: those that know that they've been hacked and those that don't yet know" (8:54). Listen to the full conversation with Dmitri Alperovitch on #ShiftingGround.
Everyone who said, "China is all about the minimum means of reprisal," wasn't wrong for about 50 years, but at some point that changed in the minds of China's leadership, and no one saw it coming.
China's transformation of its nuclear force was a discontinuous change (31:25). #ShiftingGround
China's transformation of its nuclear force was a discontinuous change (31:25). #ShiftingGround
Episode 9 | Thinking About the Second Nuclear Century
Join us as we discuss the future of nuclear strategy and the impact of technology in the second nuclear century.
buff.ly
September 24, 2026 at 8:17 PM
Everyone who said, "China is all about the minimum means of reprisal," wasn't wrong for about 50 years, but at some point that changed in the minds of China's leadership, and no one saw it coming.
China's transformation of its nuclear force was a discontinuous change (31:25). #ShiftingGround
China's transformation of its nuclear force was a discontinuous change (31:25). #ShiftingGround
As part of the #Orbis relaunch happy to announce a companion podcast, #ShiftingGround ... with cohost Larry Rubin ... open.spotify.com/show/6zWjuaK...
Episode 2 | Geopolitical Cycles and the Fragility of the Global Operating System
open.spotify.com
March 23, 2026 at 5:27 PM
As part of the #Orbis relaunch happy to announce a companion podcast, #ShiftingGround ... with cohost Larry Rubin ... open.spotify.com/show/6zWjuaK...
"Cyber is a canary in a coal mine, it gives you a sense of adversary intentions. It's the first tool they'll pull out of their toolkit because it's covert, deniable, and perceived to have very little cost to it." (7:05) Listen to the latest episode of #ShiftingGround. #OrbisJournal
Episode 5 | Cyber is War
Explore the intersection of cybersecurity and international affairs in our latest episode featuring Dmitri Alperovitch discussing cyber threats.
buff.ly
May 21, 2026 at 2:34 PM
"Cyber is a canary in a coal mine, it gives you a sense of adversary intentions. It's the first tool they'll pull out of their toolkit because it's covert, deniable, and perceived to have very little cost to it." (7:05) Listen to the latest episode of #ShiftingGround. #OrbisJournal
The Hon. Jon Tien joins #ShiftingGround to discuss the influence of personal relationships on shaping government strategy, the evolution of the Department of Homeland Security, the inextricable links between domestic and foreign policy, and a new global operating system.
Episode 8 | The Architecture of Leadership
Gain valuable perspectives on leadership spanning multiple presidential administrations with The Hon. John Tien.
buff.ly
July 22, 2026 at 7:02 PM
The Hon. Jon Tien joins #ShiftingGround to discuss the influence of personal relationships on shaping government strategy, the evolution of the Department of Homeland Security, the inextricable links between domestic and foreign policy, and a new global operating system.
"A system is coherent through cycles of cooperation and competition. This is how I'm thinking about the Indo-Islamic corridor and the Indo-Abrahamic Corridor" (14:10). Listen to the full episode on #ShiftingGround. #OrbisJournal
Episode 6 | American Grand Strategy in West Asia
In this episode of Shifting Ground, Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin are joined by Mohammed Soliman, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute and author of West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in…
buff.ly
June 7, 2026 at 2:47 AM
Thinking about Geo-Technology--The Golden Thread of the first six episodes of #OrbisJournal podcast #ShiftingGround. open.substack.com/pub/nikolasg...
Thinking about Geo-Technology
Shifting Ground's Golden Thread
open.substack.com
June 4, 2026 at 12:47 AM
Thinking about Geo-Technology--The Golden Thread of the first six episodes of #OrbisJournal podcast #ShiftingGround. open.substack.com/pub/nikolasg...
Our latest #ShiftingGround podcast, with @danbyman.bsky.social …
"Because these technologies have very profound effects on humanity, it's very useful to know how the various Frontier AI systems and Frontier biotech systems are working, what internally are the negative side effects, and having that shared." #ShiftingGround #OrbisJournal
Episode 3 | Technology and the Governance Gap
On this episode of Shifting Ground, Daniel Byman joins Nick and Larry to discuss the core challenge governments face in trying to regulate or shape emerging technologies today. The three discuss the…
buff.ly
May 4, 2026 at 10:34 PM
Our latest #ShiftingGround podcast, with @danbyman.bsky.social …
There's a piece about perception in the conceal-reveal framework that isn't talked about as much but is relevant. This concept of managing adversary perceptions is very alive—implicitly, for sure, but other times explicitly—in policymakers' heads. (10:15)
Tune in to #ShiftingGround.
Tune in to #ShiftingGround.
Episode 9 | Thinking About the Second Nuclear Century
Join us as we discuss the future of nuclear strategy and the impact of technology in the second nuclear century.
buff.ly
September 21, 2026 at 6:51 PM
There's a piece about perception in the conceal-reveal framework that isn't talked about as much but is relevant. This concept of managing adversary perceptions is very alive—implicitly, for sure, but other times explicitly—in policymakers' heads. (10:15)
Tune in to #ShiftingGround.
Tune in to #ShiftingGround.
Great conversation with Dan Byman and Larry Rubin for #ShiftingGround. We discuss the national security risks associated with emerging technologies right now, and how policymakers think about the tradeoffs between innovation, economic competitiveness, and security. 1/
April 23, 2026 at 4:04 AM
Great conversation with Dan Byman and Larry Rubin for #ShiftingGround. We discuss the national security risks associated with emerging technologies right now, and how policymakers think about the tradeoffs between innovation, economic competitiveness, and security. 1/
In this episode of #ShiftingGround, podcast hosts Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin sit down with The Hon. John Tien. Listen to their episode and subscribe for updates. buff.ly/JKwc0KR
Episode 8 | The Architecture of Leadership
Shifting Ground · Episode
open.spotify.com
August 4, 2026 at 8:43 PM
In this episode of #ShiftingGround, podcast hosts Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin sit down with The Hon. John Tien. Listen to their episode and subscribe for updates. buff.ly/JKwc0KR
On the latest episode of #ShiftingGround, Jon Tien explains that "strategy is a combination of ends, ways, and means" (28:25), outlining his approach to addressing the fentanyl crisis. Tune in for the full conversation. #OrbisJournal
Episode 8 | The Architecture of Leadership
Gain valuable perspectives on leadership spanning multiple presidential administrations with The Hon. John Tien.
buff.ly
July 25, 2026 at 8:38 PM
On the latest episode of #ShiftingGround, Jon Tien explains that "strategy is a combination of ends, ways, and means" (28:25), outlining his approach to addressing the fentanyl crisis. Tune in for the full conversation. #OrbisJournal
As part of the #Orbis relaunch we've also created a companion podcast, #ShiftingGround ... first two episodes have dropped (with Dr. Stacey Dixon and Admiral James "Sandy" Winnefeld .. 1/
FPRI and the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology are pleased to introduce orbisjournal.org, the new home of the Orbis Journal of World Affairs. Read the announcement on our website. buff.ly/KYvjMOX
March 23, 2026 at 5:14 PM
As part of the #Orbis relaunch we've also created a companion podcast, #ShiftingGround ... first two episodes have dropped (with Dr. Stacey Dixon and Admiral James "Sandy" Winnefeld .. 1/
"Cyber becomes an essential element of extending power in the physical realm and often giving us insights into what the broader intentions are." (12:10) Listen to the full discussion with Dmitri Alperovitch on #ShiftingGround. #OrbisJournal
Episode 5 | Cyber is War
Explore the intersection of cybersecurity and international affairs in our latest episode featuring Dmitri Alperovitch discussing cyber threats.
buff.ly
May 20, 2026 at 3:05 PM
"Cyber becomes an essential element of extending power in the physical realm and often giving us insights into what the broader intentions are." (12:10) Listen to the full discussion with Dmitri Alperovitch on #ShiftingGround. #OrbisJournal
For #ShiftingGround @dmitri.silverado.org discusses with Larry Rubin and me what some of those cyber indicators for possible conflict might be. #OrbisJournal
"They started infiltrating networks that had nothing to steal: water utilities, pipelines, electric utilities. The US intelligence community believes they're preparing to cause immense disruption to our critical infrastructure (13:55). Listen to the full episode on #ShiftingGround.
Episode 5 | Cyber is War
Explore the intersection of cybersecurity and international affairs in our latest episode featuring Dmitri Alperovitch discussing cyber threats.
buff.ly
May 22, 2026 at 6:45 PM
For #ShiftingGround @dmitri.silverado.org discusses with Larry Rubin and me what some of those cyber indicators for possible conflict might be. #OrbisJournal
In the latest episode of #ShiftingGround, Austin Long and @rachelwhitlark.bsky.social discuss the application of historical lessons to the second nuclear century, highlighting both the dangers in misusing them and the cases were analogizing can be useful to navigate present-day conflicts. (26:00)
Episode 9 | Thinking About the Second Nuclear Century
Join us as we discuss the future of nuclear strategy and the impact of technology in the second nuclear century.
buff.ly
September 22, 2026 at 4:53 PM
In the latest episode of #ShiftingGround, Austin Long and @rachelwhitlark.bsky.social discuss the application of historical lessons to the second nuclear century, highlighting both the dangers in misusing them and the cases were analogizing can be useful to navigate present-day conflicts. (26:00)
🆕 The first episode of the #ShiftingGround podcast is now live! The discussion focuses on emerging technology and national security. Tune in and subscribe.
Episode 1 | Technology, Trust, and the Accelerants of Global Crisis - Orbis
In the inaugural episode of Shifting Ground, the Hon. Stacey Dixon joins Nick Gvosdev and Larry Rubin to discuss the US government’s challenge of balancing national security interests by restricting…
buff.ly
March 31, 2026 at 7:27 PM
🆕 The first episode of the #ShiftingGround podcast is now live! The discussion focuses on emerging technology and national security. Tune in and subscribe.
What we do at the Naval War College ... you train for certainty, but you educate for uncertainty ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
Why You Shouldn’t Come to the Naval War College | Nikolas Gvosdev
Recording the next episode of the Orbis Journal of World Affairs podcast #ShiftingGround, with guest Philip Wasielewski speaking with me and Lawrence Rubin ... a line that I don't Phil will mind relea...
www.linkedin.com
June 12, 2026 at 2:33 AM
What we do at the Naval War College ... you train for certainty, but you educate for uncertainty ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
As US economic warfare dominates headlines, revisit episode 4 of #ShiftingGround with geo-economic expert Rachel Ziemba: buff.ly/Il6XsOl. She details how the US catalyzes the private sector, the discussion around a US sovereign wealth fund, parallel markets, and more. #OrbisJournal
Episode 4 | The Weaponized Economy
This episode explores how sovereign balance sheets and coercive tools like sanctions have become primary instruments of modern statecraft, fundamentally shifting the landscape of global commerce.
orbisjournal.org
August 24, 2026 at 8:30 PM
As US economic warfare dominates headlines, revisit episode 4 of #ShiftingGround with geo-economic expert Rachel Ziemba: buff.ly/Il6XsOl. She details how the US catalyzes the private sector, the discussion around a US sovereign wealth fund, parallel markets, and more. #OrbisJournal
🆕 Rachel Zembia joins the #OrbisJournal podcast, #ShiftingGround. This episode how coercive tools like sanctions have become primary instruments of modern statecraft, fundamentally shifting the landscape of global commerce.
Episode 4 | The Weaponized Economy
This episode explores how sovereign balance sheets and coercive tools like sanctions have become primary instruments of modern statecraft, fundamentally shifting the landscape of global commerce.
buff.ly
May 6, 2026 at 3:43 PM
🆕 Rachel Zembia joins the #OrbisJournal podcast, #ShiftingGround. This episode how coercive tools like sanctions have become primary instruments of modern statecraft, fundamentally shifting the landscape of global commerce.
Our #OrbisJournal #ShiftingGround podcasts with Stacy Dixon, Admiral Winnefeld, @danbyman.bsky.social @dmitri.silverado.org and @reziemba.bsky.social all fill out different pieces of the current #geotechnology puzzle ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
Episode 4 | The Weaponized Economy | Nikolas Gvosdev
The first episodes of Orbis Journal of World Affairs podcast #ShiftingGround (which I co-host with Lawrence Rubin) provide different parts of the puzzle that is the #geotechnology challenge of the 21s...
www.linkedin.com
May 25, 2026 at 4:40 PM
Our #OrbisJournal #ShiftingGround podcasts with Stacy Dixon, Admiral Winnefeld, @danbyman.bsky.social @dmitri.silverado.org and @reziemba.bsky.social all fill out different pieces of the current #geotechnology puzzle ... www.linkedin.com/posts/nikola...
"2025 is like 1989: It had a rules-based order—not always effective, not always fair, but certainly led to the biggest growth in the 20th century. Now, what drives the international order is bilateral, transactional, and isolationist" (38:00). Tune in to #ShiftingGround for more.
Episode 8 | The Architecture of Leadership
Gain valuable perspectives on leadership spanning multiple presidential administrations with The Hon. John Tien.
buff.ly
July 24, 2026 at 6:20 PM
"2025 is like 1989: It had a rules-based order—not always effective, not always fair, but certainly led to the biggest growth in the 20th century. Now, what drives the international order is bilateral, transactional, and isolationist" (38:00). Tune in to #ShiftingGround for more.