SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO TO WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two could occur this afternoon into tonight from southern and eastern New Mexico into west Texas, and across southeast Arizona. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low and attendant trough will move across the Desert Southwest through the period. In response to the approaching deep trough, Hurricane Polo is forecast to move from the Gulf of California into Sonora this morning. While the tropical cyclone is forecast to weaken over the mountainous terrain of northern Mexico later today, a phasing of the mid-level remnants of Polo with the approaching deep mid/upper-level trough will result in a consolidating surface low that is forecast to deepen and move across eastern New Mexico and west Texas tonight. ...Southern/eastern New Mexico to west Texas... Widespread convection is ongoing and expected to generally continue into this afternoon and tonight from southern/eastern New Mexico to west Texas, as increasing large-scale ascent overspreads a very moist environment. The influence of the remnant tropical system will result in poor mid-level lapse rates, but increasing deep-layer flow/shear and enlarging low-level hodographs will favor some storm organization, especially later this afternoon and evening. The widespread storm coverage will result in a tendency toward complex or linear storm modes with time, though a few/episodic supercells will also be possible. The weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy are expected to limit the overall magnitude of severe potential, but a localized tornado and severe-gust threat could accompany any organized storm structures, particularly this afternoon and evening, influenced by a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet. ...Southern Arizona... A moist environment resides in close proximity to the Southwest Deserts mid/upper-level low, with a belt of very strong deep-layer winds sampled in available 12z upper-air data and regional WSR-88D VWPs. Scattered thunderstorms are common this morning, and while this convection/related cloud cover will generally hinder overall destabilization, modest diurnal heating will probably lead to some convective intensification during the day. The strong nature of the wind profiles could support a few at least weak/transient supercells, and potentially more organized convective bands later today, with at least some potential for strong thunderstorm winds and mostly sub-severe hail. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 09/29/2026 Read more

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<article data-history-node-id="448521" about="https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/israeli-army-bombards-towns-southern-lebanon" class="live-blog-update default clearfix"> <h2> <a href="https://www.middleeasteye.net/live-blog/live-blog-update/israeli-army-bombards-towns-southern-lebanon" rel="bookmark"> <span class="field field-title">Israeli army bombards towns in southern Lebanon</span> </a> </h2> <div class="content"> <div class="field field-field-text"><p>The Israeli military has targeted the southern Lebanese town of Hadatha with artillery, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency on Tuesday.</p> <p>It also launched a raid on the outskirts of Barashit in the Bint Jbeil district and is carrying out heavy bombing in Bani Hayyan.</p> <figure role="group" class="media-block"> <div class="group-inner"> <div alt="smoke rising from the site of a series of Israeli controlled explosions in the nearby village of al-Mansouri on September 28, 2026 Kawnat HAJU / AFP" data-embed-button="file_browser" data-entity-embed-display="image:image" data-entity-embed-display-settings="{" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e6c36013-5aa5-4cf6-a550-0cdd5f7b07b1" data-langcode="en" class="embedded-entity"> <img src="https://www.middleeasteye.net/sites/default/files/000_C9K7463.jpg" width="1920" height="1080" alt="smoke rising from the site of a series of Israeli controlled explosions in the nearby village of al-Mansouri on September 28, 2026 Kawnat HAJU / AFP" typeof="foaf:Image" fetchpriority="high"> </div> <figcaption>Smoke rising from the site of a series of Israeli explosions in the village of al-Mansouri in southern Lebanon on 28 September 2026 (Kawnat Haju/AFP)</figcaption> </div> </figure> <p><span style="background: url(&quot;https://www.middleeasteye.net/modules/contrib/ckeditor/vendor/plugins/widget/images/handle.png&quot;) rgba(220, 220, 220, 0.5); top: -15px; left: 0px;"><img height="15" role="presentation" src="data:image/gif;base64,R0lGODlhAQABAPABAP///wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==" title="Click and drag to move" width="15" loading="lazy"></span></p> </div> </div> </article>

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On Sept. 10, Israel destroyed Hezbollah’s underground command center and weapons stores beneath the Ali al-Tahir ridge in southern Lebanon, about 10 miles from the Lebanon-Israel border. The loss deprived Hezbollah of a fortified position and dealt another blow to Iran’s most important regional ally, which has lost senior commanders and much of its arsenal over the past two years. Farther south, another part of Iran’s regional network was gaining ground. In Yemen, the Houthis seized territory along the Red Sea coast, bringing them closer to controlling the approaches to Bab al-Mandab, the passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. The fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria in 2024 and Hezbollah’s weakening have diminished Tehran’s influence in the Levant. Yet the wider war has created opportunities for Iran and its partners, particularly around the waterways indispensable for trade and energy exports. Thus, Tehran is losing influence in one arena while acquiring new sources of leverage in another. Iran’s efforts to control passage through the Strait of Hormuz are only one part of the picture. The Houthis’ expanding reach in the Red Sea gives Tehran’s partners leverage over a strategic waterway, while Iran-aligned armed groups in Iraq can...

A migrant caravan of more than 600 people left Tapachula, Mexico, for the US border on Sunday. Why it is unlikely to arrive there as a group.

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