It wasn’t based on any secret insight but if you want to treat me as a superforecasting guru (hi Dom’s researcher) feel free.
My forecast: Trump narrowly wins popular vote, cruises electoral college. Senate passes into Republican hands.
November 9, 2024 at 12:26 PM
It wasn’t based on any secret insight but if you want to treat me as a superforecasting guru (hi Dom’s researcher) feel free.
Blimey. Well he did get very agitated at my suggesting it was right that Andrew Sabisky, Cummings Superforecasting hire, was sacked.
February 16, 2025 at 11:03 PM
Blimey. Well he did get very agitated at my suggesting it was right that Andrew Sabisky, Cummings Superforecasting hire, was sacked.
High return superforecasting kudos isn’t it
November 26, 2025 at 3:23 PM
High return superforecasting kudos isn’t it
Deriving the laws of probability from the principles of good prediction: Machines scored by machines must speak in probabilities.
Stochastic Coherence
Deriving the laws of probability through superforecasting
www.argmin.net
March 20, 2025 at 2:30 PM
Deriving the laws of probability from the principles of good prediction: Machines scored by machines must speak in probabilities.
One of the key points of superforecasting is assessing the flaws in your reasoning that led you to make incorrect predictions so I’d love to read what Cummings thinks he misunderstood when he superforecasted that boris johnson would be a good prime minister
February 14, 2025 at 11:37 AM
One of the key points of superforecasting is assessing the flaws in your reasoning that led you to make incorrect predictions so I’d love to read what Cummings thinks he misunderstood when he superforecasted that boris johnson would be a good prime minister
Superforecasting Model note:
Category: Economy
sub-category: Production & Export
Why it matters: It signals capital flight, hard-currency erosion, and a confidence collapse in Russian energy
Category: Economy
sub-category: Production & Export
Why it matters: It signals capital flight, hard-currency erosion, and a confidence collapse in Russian energy
October 27, 2025 at 7:58 PM
Superforecasting Model note:
Category: Economy
sub-category: Production & Export
Why it matters: It signals capital flight, hard-currency erosion, and a confidence collapse in Russian energy
Category: Economy
sub-category: Production & Export
Why it matters: It signals capital flight, hard-currency erosion, and a confidence collapse in Russian energy
Superforecasting Model note:
Category: Military / Domestic
sub-category: Integrated Air Defense posture escalation
Why it matters: High-value assets diverted from frontlines; regime forced into visible self-protection. Signals insecurity
Category: Military / Domestic
sub-category: Integrated Air Defense posture escalation
Why it matters: High-value assets diverted from frontlines; regime forced into visible self-protection. Signals insecurity
October 26, 2025 at 9:19 PM
Superforecasting Model note:
Category: Military / Domestic
sub-category: Integrated Air Defense posture escalation
Why it matters: High-value assets diverted from frontlines; regime forced into visible self-protection. Signals insecurity
Category: Military / Domestic
sub-category: Integrated Air Defense posture escalation
Why it matters: High-value assets diverted from frontlines; regime forced into visible self-protection. Signals insecurity
In a new paper, Juanky Perdomo and I ask when forecasting and prediction can be solved by sneaky accounting. The answer turns out to be “more often than you’d expect."
In Defense of Defensive Forecasting
Is superforecasting just sneaky accounting?
www.argmin.net
June 16, 2025 at 2:32 PM
In a new paper, Juanky Perdomo and I ask when forecasting and prediction can be solved by sneaky accounting. The answer turns out to be “more often than you’d expect."
My new video:
The Beckwith Superforecaster makes predictions for accelerated #GlobalWarming
Science of Superforecasting - Global Warming Rise: we blew past 1.5C, how about 2C, 2.5C, to 4C?
youtu.be/JxE6XFKOaRM?...
#Predictions #forecasts #weather #climate #climatechange
The Beckwith Superforecaster makes predictions for accelerated #GlobalWarming
Science of Superforecasting - Global Warming Rise: we blew past 1.5C, how about 2C, 2.5C, to 4C?
youtu.be/JxE6XFKOaRM?...
#Predictions #forecasts #weather #climate #climatechange
Science of Superforecasting - Global Warming Rise: we blew past 1.5C, how about 2C, 2.5C, to 4C?
YouTube video by Paul Beckwith
youtu.be
January 7, 2026 at 12:47 AM
My new video:
The Beckwith Superforecaster makes predictions for accelerated #GlobalWarming
Science of Superforecasting - Global Warming Rise: we blew past 1.5C, how about 2C, 2.5C, to 4C?
youtu.be/JxE6XFKOaRM?...
#Predictions #forecasts #weather #climate #climatechange
The Beckwith Superforecaster makes predictions for accelerated #GlobalWarming
Science of Superforecasting - Global Warming Rise: we blew past 1.5C, how about 2C, 2.5C, to 4C?
youtu.be/JxE6XFKOaRM?...
#Predictions #forecasts #weather #climate #climatechange
People who think in probabilities rather than certainties tend to forecast better, per Tetlock's superforecasting work. I'd like to believe it, though Taleb has major issues with that research.
September 24, 2026 at 5:57 PM
People who think in probabilities rather than certainties tend to forecast better, per Tetlock's superforecasting work. I'd like to believe it, though Taleb has major issues with that research.
Superforecasting Model Note
Category: Military
Sub-category: Frontline Dynamics
Why it matters:
Indicates positional warfare, not breakthrough. Russia remains stalled even with local numerical superiority, while Ukraine maintains initiative through counter-fire and small-unit flexibility.
Category: Military
Sub-category: Frontline Dynamics
Why it matters:
Indicates positional warfare, not breakthrough. Russia remains stalled even with local numerical superiority, while Ukraine maintains initiative through counter-fire and small-unit flexibility.
November 1, 2025 at 7:57 PM
Superforecasting Model Note
Category: Military
Sub-category: Frontline Dynamics
Why it matters:
Indicates positional warfare, not breakthrough. Russia remains stalled even with local numerical superiority, while Ukraine maintains initiative through counter-fire and small-unit flexibility.
Category: Military
Sub-category: Frontline Dynamics
Why it matters:
Indicates positional warfare, not breakthrough. Russia remains stalled even with local numerical superiority, while Ukraine maintains initiative through counter-fire and small-unit flexibility.
The funny thing is that he has clearly only read the first half of Superforecasting or skimmed it, as after the first few chapters it advises you to do literally the opposite of his career (listen to those you dislike, wisdom of crowds, you are NOT a genius, have no ego).
June 21, 2026 at 1:39 PM
The funny thing is that he has clearly only read the first half of Superforecasting or skimmed it, as after the first few chapters it advises you to do literally the opposite of his career (listen to those you dislike, wisdom of crowds, you are NOT a genius, have no ego).
Superforecasting Model note
Category: Military
Sub-category: Operational Effectiveness
Why it matters:
Severely degrades defense posture and mobility.
Category: Military
Sub-category: Operational Effectiveness
Why it matters:
Severely degrades defense posture and mobility.
October 27, 2025 at 8:04 PM
Superforecasting Model note
Category: Military
Sub-category: Operational Effectiveness
Why it matters:
Severely degrades defense posture and mobility.
Category: Military
Sub-category: Operational Effectiveness
Why it matters:
Severely degrades defense posture and mobility.
lame: superforecasting
game:
game:
November 2, 2023 at 1:45 PM
lame: superforecasting
game:
game:
Seasonality and trends imo always seem absent from these reports. I’m reading “Superforecasting” rn I’ll see if I learn anything from it.
🔮
🔮
July 5, 2025 at 2:37 AM
Seasonality and trends imo always seem absent from these reports. I’m reading “Superforecasting” rn I’ll see if I learn anything from it.
🔮
🔮
Actually read this book for an analysis of what makes one good at predicting #superForecasting
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the fut…
www.goodreads.com
March 6, 2026 at 8:23 PM
Actually read this book for an analysis of what makes one good at predicting #superForecasting
A 1 hour stats course can improve forecasting by 10% - @odysseanproject review of @PTetlock #superforecasting http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/superforecasting-a-revolution-in-politics/
December 6, 2024 at 3:23 AM
A 1 hour stats course can improve forecasting by 10% - @odysseanproject review of @PTetlock #superforecasting http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/superforecasting-a-revolution-in-politics/
Philip Tetlock wrote a whole book, followed up by a big-name research project (Superforecasting), trying to figure out what made someone good at prediction (which is not IMO the same thing as judgment, expertise, or wisdom). Writing the same column—from the same viewpoint—every week isn't part of it
August 4, 2026 at 3:48 PM
Philip Tetlock wrote a whole book, followed up by a big-name research project (Superforecasting), trying to figure out what made someone good at prediction (which is not IMO the same thing as judgment, expertise, or wisdom). Writing the same column—from the same viewpoint—every week isn't part of it
Superforecasting Model note:
Category: Domestic
sub-category: Security Stability
Why it matters: it signals heightened regime anxiety, redeployment of internal forces, visible readiness near high-value sites (a Bayesian uptick for regime stress).
Category: Domestic
sub-category: Security Stability
Why it matters: it signals heightened regime anxiety, redeployment of internal forces, visible readiness near high-value sites (a Bayesian uptick for regime stress).
October 26, 2025 at 8:55 PM
Superforecasting Model note:
Category: Domestic
sub-category: Security Stability
Why it matters: it signals heightened regime anxiety, redeployment of internal forces, visible readiness near high-value sites (a Bayesian uptick for regime stress).
Category: Domestic
sub-category: Security Stability
Why it matters: it signals heightened regime anxiety, redeployment of internal forces, visible readiness near high-value sites (a Bayesian uptick for regime stress).
Superforecasting Model Note
Category: Military
Sub-category: Occupied Territory Conscription
Why it matters:
it’s strategically self-defeating: coercive conscription of occupied populations historically drives sabotage, desertion, and insurgency. It also deepens Russia’s war-crimes exposure.
Category: Military
Sub-category: Occupied Territory Conscription
Why it matters:
it’s strategically self-defeating: coercive conscription of occupied populations historically drives sabotage, desertion, and insurgency. It also deepens Russia’s war-crimes exposure.
November 1, 2025 at 8:09 PM
Superforecasting Model Note
Category: Military
Sub-category: Occupied Territory Conscription
Why it matters:
it’s strategically self-defeating: coercive conscription of occupied populations historically drives sabotage, desertion, and insurgency. It also deepens Russia’s war-crimes exposure.
Category: Military
Sub-category: Occupied Territory Conscription
Why it matters:
it’s strategically self-defeating: coercive conscription of occupied populations historically drives sabotage, desertion, and insurgency. It also deepens Russia’s war-crimes exposure.
Superforecasting Model Note:
Category: Symbolic Context
Sub-category: Morale & Civil Resilience
Why it matters: Signals that Russian strategic terror campaigns continue to fail in breaking Ukrainian will to resist. Psychological resilience remains a decisive asymmetric advantage.
Category: Symbolic Context
Sub-category: Morale & Civil Resilience
Why it matters: Signals that Russian strategic terror campaigns continue to fail in breaking Ukrainian will to resist. Psychological resilience remains a decisive asymmetric advantage.
November 12, 2025 at 2:01 AM
Superforecasting Model Note:
Category: Symbolic Context
Sub-category: Morale & Civil Resilience
Why it matters: Signals that Russian strategic terror campaigns continue to fail in breaking Ukrainian will to resist. Psychological resilience remains a decisive asymmetric advantage.
Category: Symbolic Context
Sub-category: Morale & Civil Resilience
Why it matters: Signals that Russian strategic terror campaigns continue to fail in breaking Ukrainian will to resist. Psychological resilience remains a decisive asymmetric advantage.
Superforecasting Model Note:
Category: Military
Sub-category: Command & Control Resilience
Why it matters: Demonstrates structured defense planning and layered contingency design. Indicates strategic foresight and morale stability at senior command level.
Category: Military
Sub-category: Command & Control Resilience
Why it matters: Demonstrates structured defense planning and layered contingency design. Indicates strategic foresight and morale stability at senior command level.
November 9, 2025 at 7:49 PM
Superforecasting Model Note:
Category: Military
Sub-category: Command & Control Resilience
Why it matters: Demonstrates structured defense planning and layered contingency design. Indicates strategic foresight and morale stability at senior command level.
Category: Military
Sub-category: Command & Control Resilience
Why it matters: Demonstrates structured defense planning and layered contingency design. Indicates strategic foresight and morale stability at senior command level.
And wandering about Barnard Castle saying "well you've never read Nate Silver's book on Superforecasting, have you?"
October 8, 2025 at 7:21 AM
And wandering about Barnard Castle saying "well you've never read Nate Silver's book on Superforecasting, have you?"
More ideas:
- Do SF writers have a moral obligation re: the predictions they make & futures they imagine? (SF can inspire real tech; predictions can become self-fulfilling)
- Entertainment value vs accuracy
- Near-future SF is hard because tech moves fast
- Superforecasting book: hedgehogs vs foxes
- Do SF writers have a moral obligation re: the predictions they make & futures they imagine? (SF can inspire real tech; predictions can become self-fulfilling)
- Entertainment value vs accuracy
- Near-future SF is hard because tech moves fast
- Superforecasting book: hedgehogs vs foxes
April 3, 2026 at 9:59 PM
More ideas:
- Do SF writers have a moral obligation re: the predictions they make & futures they imagine? (SF can inspire real tech; predictions can become self-fulfilling)
- Entertainment value vs accuracy
- Near-future SF is hard because tech moves fast
- Superforecasting book: hedgehogs vs foxes
- Do SF writers have a moral obligation re: the predictions they make & futures they imagine? (SF can inspire real tech; predictions can become self-fulfilling)
- Entertainment value vs accuracy
- Near-future SF is hard because tech moves fast
- Superforecasting book: hedgehogs vs foxes
lol what? I clicked through thinking no way this article is that bad but oh my goodness. Like, we have many ways to verify and measure a probabilistic forecast. See the book Superforecasting, for example. What a crazy assertion to make, and to be published.
December 28, 2024 at 2:37 AM
lol what? I clicked through thinking no way this article is that bad but oh my goodness. Like, we have many ways to verify and measure a probabilistic forecast. See the book Superforecasting, for example. What a crazy assertion to make, and to be published.