#Superforecasting
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scgriffith.bsky.social
thinking about how the entire premise of the superforecasting grift is that expertise is when you say a number will go up (or down) & then it does go up (or down). and how this fundamentally anti intellectual logic has been repurposed to convince you that prediction markets are sources of knowledge
odiumsymposium.bsky.social Odium Symposium @odiumsymposium.bsky.social · 21d
Our new bonus episode is now available for subscribers! We talk about OG rationalist Julia Galef, and her shilling of "Superforecasting", one of the most ridiculous grifts we've ever heard of.
Ezra Klein is a Disgusting Worm 2: The Rationalist Oracle of Delphi | Odium Symposium
We continue our journey into the mind of Ezra Klein with an episode of The Ezra Klein Show that doesn't really feature Ezra Klein, but rathe
www.patreon.com
October 29, 2026 at 10:04 PM
scgriffith.bsky.social
thinking about how the entire premise of the superforecasting grift is that expertise is when you say a number will go up (or down) & then it does go up (or down). and how this fundamentally anti intellectual logic has been repurposed to convince you that prediction markets are sources of knowledge
odiumsymposium.bsky.social Odium Symposium @odiumsymposium.bsky.social · 21d
Our new bonus episode is now available for subscribers! We talk about OG rationalist Julia Galef, and her shilling of "Superforecasting", one of the most ridiculous grifts we've ever heard of.
Ezra Klein is a Disgusting Worm 2: The Rationalist Oracle of Delphi | Odium Symposium
We continue our journey into the mind of Ezra Klein with an episode of The Ezra Klein Show that doesn't really feature Ezra Klein, but rathe
www.patreon.com
October 29, 2026 at 10:04 PM
fubits.dev
There’s a good book on this topic of “collective forecasting” www.goodreads.com/en/book/show...
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the fut…
www.goodreads.com
October 26, 2026 at 3:11 PM
glassboxalpha.bsky.social
Book 9 of 15, free on my own Patreon: Superforecasting by Tetlock. Most expert predictions barely beat a coin flip. The few who beat that keep score of every call, and update in small steps. Via Masters in Business. Not investment advice. patreon.com/tradeski/posts/book-9-of-15-by-173450581
October 26, 2026 at 1:44 PM
books-mapped.bsky.social
Every idea in Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock, one map.

Dive in: https://mind-map-blush.vercel.app/view/superforecasting-the-art-and-science-of-prediction?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social

Requests: https://ko-fi.com/xarbuildthings

#booksky #reading #booknotes
October 23, 2026 at 12:08 AM
vortexegg.com
This is both a cultural manifestation of fascism (and a form of technofascism), and downstream of the obsession with superforecasting and prediction markets that was driven largely by Effective Altruists (Robin Hanson ran the first prediction market).
jaywillis.net Jay Willis @jaywillis.net · 22d
Polymarket allowed users to bet on whether any one of the 7 defendants in the Cornell rape case will be charged with a felony sex crime and the market did almost HALF A MILLION DOLLARS IN VOLUME
Polymarket Removes Cornell 7 Market After Blowback
The market, which was only available on Polymarket's international platform, saw $451,633 in trading volume before being removed.
frontofficesports.com
October 20, 2026 at 4:25 PM
odiumsymposium.bsky.social
Our new bonus episode is now available for subscribers! We talk about OG rationalist Julia Galef, and her shilling of "Superforecasting", one of the most ridiculous grifts we've ever heard of.
Ezra Klein is a Disgusting Worm 2: The Rationalist Oracle of Delphi | Odium Symposium
We continue our journey into the mind of Ezra Klein with an episode of The Ezra Klein Show that doesn't really feature Ezra Klein, but rathe
www.patreon.com
October 20, 2026 at 1:10 PM
thegrowthreads.bsky.social
Don't say probably. Write a number.

Tetlock: a forecast is a scored draft.

Comment SYSTEM for the Art of Habits ebook.

https://thegrowthreads.com/reviews/psychology/superforecasting-summary/?utm_source=bluesky&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=tgr_sf
October 20, 2026 at 10:04 AM
scgriffith.bsky.social
recorded a new premium episode last night. it's about og rationalist julia galef and "superforecasting," one of the most brazen grifts I've ever seen
October 18, 2026 at 6:07 PM
winchellhouse.bsky.social
Book Review: Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Tetlock and Gardner reveal how ordinary superforecasters beat CIA analysts at prediction — and teach investors probabilistic thinking: base rates, updating, scorekeeping.
Book Review: Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner
Tetlock and Gardner reveal how ordinary superforecasters beat CIA analysts at prediction — and teach investors probabilistic thinking: base rates, updating, scorekeeping.
winchellhouse.com
October 11, 2026 at 5:32 PM
vicesignalling.bsky.social
I have never been more insulted by a quiz. This must be how the Mandaeans feel when someone calls them heterodox Christians. Motherfucker, I predate your cult and developed my insane positions in parallel.
Heterodox Rationalists homo Bayesians Read the same Sequences and came out at 15 percent instead of 95. Run a killer comment section and will steelman your position until you no longer recognize it. The heterodox wing (Robin Hanson, Joscha Bach) skips both doom and cheerleading for stranger predictions, like brain emulations and grabby aliens, then asks exactly where your model disagrees. Habitat Lighthaven, Manifold, George Mason Call "Steelman." "Epistemic status:" "That's just signaling." Reading list AstralCodexTen, Superforecasting, The Age of Em Wants from Washington Legal prediction markets, forecasting in government, futarchy, fewer taboos Friends and enemies The Al doomers think they're lukewarm. Everyone else thinks they're doomers.
October 8, 2026 at 1:46 AM
ericdbrown.bsky.social
Forecasts nobody scores are opinions with no downside. Superforecasting is still the best practical book on that, though its outside view missed hard on AI speed.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-government-forecasting-tournament-can-teach-you-your-brown-dsc-52snc/
October 1, 2026 at 2:03 PM
some-rss-feeds.bsky.social
[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: Announcing our first SCOTUS forecasting contest, by SCOTUSblog Staff https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/09/announcing-our-first-scotus-forecast-contest/
Teaser: SCOTUSblog has teamed up with Good Judgment Inc. to launch its first-ever Supreme Court forecasting contest. Readers can now formally prognosticate how the Court will decide the term’s biggest cases on GJ Open, a free platform born from the Superforecasting project. As an extra twist, the collective wisdom of SCOTUSblog forecasters will be pitted against artificial intelligence models to see whether the machines have finally caught up—at least when it comes to the justices. The top three forecasters will be named on the blog next July (and might score some swag). Ready to test your prediction skills against both fellow readers and the algorithms? Sign up and start forecasting. teaser for https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/09/announcing-our-first-scotus-forecast-contest/ generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
September 30, 2026 at 2:21 PM
jimmyc42.bsky.social
Superforecasting is a technique. consensus is always hard to beat. MultiModel consensus with exposed flaws should be able to be taken advantage of.
September 29, 2026 at 1:58 AM
leonlinsx.bsky.social
People who think in probabilities rather than certainties tend to forecast better, per Tetlock's superforecasting work. I'd like to believe it, though Taleb has major issues with that research.
September 24, 2026 at 5:57 PM
marginalrev.blogsky.venki.dev
Saturday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION
Saturday assorted links - Marginal REVOLUTION
1. Critique of Villaroel on UAPs. 2. Bergen County (Korean) fact of the day. 3. AIs cracking superforecasting. 4. Gregor Benko, RIP (NYT). 5. Joshua Saxe on the increase in cyber risk. 6. Lichtenstein political infighting heats up (FT). 7. Risk, the biggie.  And on the Suwalki gap.
marginalrevolution.com
September 19, 2026 at 5:40 PM
aisafetymem-mir-rt.selfhosted.social
RT @ArchieHall: AIs cracking short-term superforecasting is such an important (and, still, under-discussed) trend.

Via a new piece from @nikostro https://www.economist.com/science-and-technology/2026/09/16/artificial-intelligence-now-beats-some-of-the-best-human-forecasters
September 19, 2026 at 4:02 AM
luigi.land
I was like 90 seconds down the rabbit hole and came across the worst thing ever written.
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA A guest post by Josh Morrison SCOTT ALEXANDER SEP 16, 2026 This is a guest post by ACX grantee Josh Morrison of 1DaySooner. AI superforecasters are coming. Within a few years, the average person will have the equivalent of a Nate Silver in their pocket, ready to predict whatever question they can think to ask it.
September 17, 2026 at 10:31 PM
ckuss.bsky.social
www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-superfo...
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA
A guest post by Josh Morrison
www.astralcodexten.com
September 17, 2026 at 5:40 AM
astralcodexten.blogsky.venki.dev
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA
www.astralcodexten.com
September 16, 2026 at 11:35 PM
astralcodexten.com.web.brid.gy
AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA
A guest post by Josh Morrison
www.astralcodexten.com
September 17, 2026 at 8:26 PM
some-rss-feeds.bsky.social
[some-subscribed-rss] New Post: AI Superforecasting Should Transform The FDA, by Scott Alexander https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-superforecasting-should-transform
Teaser: AI superforecasting is coming, and Josh Morrison argues it could revolutionize the FDA. The agency currently relies on subjective human judgment, creating a system where drug companies play it safe by deferring to reviewers on every decision—adding years and billions to drug development. Morrison proposes a gradual shift: first, have the FDA attach quantitative forecasts to its existing decisions (e.g., predicting trial death rates or post-market side effects). Over time, as these forecasts are validated against real-world data, they could become public benchmarks. Eventually, reliable forecasts could even serve as legal triggers for automatic approvals. The piece sketches a path from today’s opaque, risk-averse equilibrium to a future where drug developers can query a simulated FDA that gives predictable, data-driven answers. teaser for https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/ai-superforecasting-should-transform generated by deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash
September 17, 2026 at 12:39 AM
amaebooksale.bsky.social
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (English Edition) (PhilipE.Tetlock,DanGardner) が、Kindleストアで45円値下げされて、363円(86%OFF)+4ポイント還元になりました。
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (English Edition)
著者：Philip E. Tetlock(著), Dan Gardner(著)　出版：Crown　2015/9/29(火)配信
5leaf.jp
August 23, 2026 at 8:39 PM
amaebooksale.bsky.social
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (English Edition) (PhilipE.Tetlock,DanGardner) が、Kindleストアで242円値下げされて、408円(85%OFF)+4ポイント還元になりました。
5leaf.jp/kindle/B00RKO6MS8/#a...
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (English Edition)
著者：Philip E. Tetlock(著), Dan Gardner(著)　出版：Crown　2015/9/29(火)配信
5leaf.jp
August 18, 2026 at 12:09 AM
glitchdeals.bsky.social
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (eBook) only $1.99 (Reg $18.00)
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00RKO6MS8?smid=&th=1&linkCode=ll2&tag=bluesky0d2-20
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (eBook) only $1.99 (Reg $18.00)
August 16, 2026 at 7:53 AM